Tuesday 3 November 2009

A new beginning

This blog will no longer be updated - please visit www.racingtrendsrevealed.com

Saturday 24 October 2009

Website update

Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Sunday 1 November:

1.55 Lingfield, Toballa
3.05 Lingfield, Fantasy Explorer
3.40 Lingfield, Titus Gent

Nice to see a return to form from the Top 20 with those qualifiers around the 8/1 or shorter mark this week returning a profit - more about that approach on the new site - including my RFO nap, Daraz Rose, on Friday.
That puts me 'just' £18 behind Dave Nevison in the naps table so I need to pull a 20-1 out the hat next week! I may have had a better chance but for recording the most non-runners.

Website update - Part VIII !!!!!

The website developers showed me the amendments on Friday and it looked very polished. Content will now be added over the weekend before the launch button can be pressed on Monday - it then takes 24-48 hours to go live so it should be accessible around Wednesday.

The trends races will be available on pdf files via Adobe software that is free to download. I suggest anyone without this software should download it now to save time once the site is live - Adobe can be downloaded for free at
http://get.adobe.com/uk/reader/
(It took 15 minutes when I dowloaded it)

Thanks again for your patience, in the meantime, here are the jumps trends.

Trends

Wetherby

WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners emerged from the first four in the betting.
 12 were aged six to 10-years-old – experience helped as young, second-season hurdlers struggled.
 12 scored at Class 2 level or higher.
 11 had been off the track around five months or longer and were last seen at a Grade 1 venue – the last four arrived via Aintree. The two exceptions with a recent outing came via the Flat.
Pettifour last year became the fifth winner to lump a penalty for a Graded victory, and was also trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ second winner in three years.

FUTURE POINTERS This early season staying hurdle has improved in terms of quality in recent times, attracting two past World Hurdle winners in the last four renewals, although it hasn’t provided much of a springboard for the future. Only two winners managed to follow-up after Wetherby – both six and seven-year-olds – in the Long Distance Hurdle and Elite Hurdle, while eight failed in the former event at Newbury, and five flopped in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.

Were West Yorkshire Hurdle winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 6 wins from 37 runs returned a loss of -£23.85 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 8 runs – all eight were unplaced.

Runners-up next three runs: 6 wins from 32 runs returned a loss of -£15.47 to a £1 level stake.
2006 My Way De Solzen – Cheltenham Grade 2 Novice Chase
2003 Royal Emperor – Towton Novices’ Chase
1996 What A Question – Long Distance Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 7 runs
2006 My Way De Solzen ► Arkle Chase (1st)
2003 Royal Emperor ► Royal & SunAlliance Chase (2nd)

Third-placed next three runs: 2 wins from 12 runs returned a profit of +£50.00 to £1 levels (50/1 on the Flat).
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.


CHARLIE HALL CHASE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners scored over 3m, including seven course and distance winners,
 12 had a minimum of 11 career chase runs.
 12 were seven to 10-years-old.
 11 returned 6/1 or shorter.
 10 made their seasonal reappearance, while two of the three to have already raced made the top two.
A total of nine had their final stop at Aintree, Ayr or Cheltenham.
Those either unpenalised or with a Grade 1 penalty have a good record – avoid Grade 2and 3 penalty carriers.
Howard Johnson, Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies all trained two winners.

FUTURE POINTERS This Grade 2 is one of Wetherby’s highlights of the year, but an event that has had less of an impact for the season ahead since the turn of the century with only Grey Abbey in the last eight years going on to record any significant victories – three runners-up performed marginally better (see below).
Compare this to the previous five years from 1996 to 2000 when four Charlie Hall victors scored soon after Huntingdon, including two winners of the King George VI Chase, and it can only be hoped that a future star emerges from here soon to boost this historic race.

Were Charlie Hall Chase winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 9 wins from 38 runs returned a loss of -£12.70 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 10 runs.
1997 One Man ► Queen Mother Champion Chase (1st)
2006 Our Vic ► Ryanair Chase (2nd)

Runners-up next three runs: 3 wins from 30 runs returned a loss of -£7.67 to a £1 level stake.
2006 Neptune Collonges – Rehearsal Chase
2005 Kingscliff – Betfair Chase
2003 Marlborough – Racing Post Chase
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 6 runs.
2004 Sir Rembrandt ► Gold Cup (3rd)

Third-placed next three runs: 1 win from 12 runs returned a profit of +£5.00 to a £1 level stake.
2002 Gingembre – Hennessy Gold Cup
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.

Wednesday 21 October 2009

Bottom of the Form!

Performance ratings

Darley Stakes - Steele Tango 72
Challenge Stakes - Arabian Gleam 77
Dewhurst Stakes - Beethoven 79
Champion Stakes - Twice Over 84
Cesarewitch - Darley Sun 70
Rockfel Stakes - Music Show 68
Pride Stakes - Ashalanda 72
Jockey Club Cup - Akmal 70

The above performance ratings from the Flat book will be the last to appear on here, but the upcoming 2009/10 jumps ones will be available on the new website.

The website will be launched in the next five days and you can access it by visiting here as normal, as it will appear automatically via the redirection of the address - www.racingtrendsrevealed.com

Top of the Form

It's been a horrid week for the Top 20 following a decent spell during the last five or six weeks. The base rating in the chart has dropped a few points so may be the crossover of codes - from Flat to jumps - is a factor.

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Friday 23 October:

1.40 Ayr, Corsica
2.10 Ayr, Kristen Jane
3.55 Ayr, Bagber
4.05 Doncaster, Crocus Rose
6.10 Wolverhampton, Bestowed
8.40 Wolverhampton, Illuminative

Here are the final set of new races currently outside the Top 20 - the daily qualifiers from this list can also be found on the new website.

A special mention goes to the Timeform Million earlier in the month which has already produced three winners in smaller races.

3 October Newmarket 7f Timeform Million won by Oasis Dancer -
3 wins from 5 runs

26 September Market Rasen 2m2f handicap hurdle won by Treaty Flyer -
3 wins from 10 runs

27 September Market Rasen 2m4f novice hurdle won by Shadow Dancer -
2 wins from 7 runs

10 September Kempton 1m handicap won by Captain Flasheart -
3 wins from 9 runs

Wednesday 14 October 2009

Performance ratings

Autumn Stakes - Morana 66
Cornwallis Stakes - Our Jonathan 70

Top of the Form

One of the introductions on the new website will be a list of daily qualifiers from races currently outside the Top 20. These races are ones in which either the top-half of the field have since all reappeared, or ones where the overall rating is too low.

Two recent examples would be the York sprint handicap I mentioned in my RFO column three weeks ago won by Able Master, in which the rating was too low for the Top 20, while Rowan Tiger's Kempton victory on 16 September is a race that was eliminated this week as the first seven home had all reappeared.

It's difficult waving goodbye to races like the Kempton one as they produced three further winners last week - Rowan Tiger (11/4), Cape Marien (7/4) and Mellow Mixture (7/1) - so I'll be keeping track of them and listing the daily qualifiers on a 'B-list' on the new website. Who knows, this list may even start outperforming the Top 20 list, but I'm looking forward to finding out.

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 20 October, while below them is a sample of new races I've just mentioned that sit outside the chart:

2.30 Lingfield, Tuscan Gold
2.30 Lingfield, Classical Piece
3.30 Lingfield, True Decision
3.30 Lingfield, Flamsteed
4.00 Lingfield, Gentle Guru
4.00 Lingfield, Billberry
4.20 Yarmouth, Bahama Baileys
5.00 Lingfield, D'Artagnans Dream

18 September Wolverhampton 7f handicap won by Mabait -
3 wins from 9 runs

17 September Pontefract 2m1f handicap won by Zuwaar -
2 wins from 7 runs

11 September Bangor 3m handicap chase won by Oscar Glory -
3 wins from 8 runs

2 September Hereford 2m4f handicap hurdle won by King High -
4 wins from 10 runs

Tuesday 6 October 2009

Top of the Form update

Top of the Form

There will be a new blog on Wednesday with performance ratings and fresh races outside the Top 20.
In the meantime, the new Top 20 has been updated so here are the qualifiers for Tuesday 13 October - the date my Dad passed away 20 years ago; now he did know a thing or two about form.

2.40 Leicester, Enhancing
4.00 Huntingdon, Dark Energy
4.10 Leicester, Moscow Oznick
4.10 Leicester, Mista Rossa
5.20 Newcastle, Samizdat

Here are several races currently outside the Top 20 (owing to either a low rating or the top-half of the field having all reappeared.

28 September Brighton 1m2f handicap won by Triple Cee –
2 wins from 3 runs

20 September Uttoxeter handicap hurdle won by Blossom –
2 wins from 6 runs

19 September Newbury Dubai Trophy won by Strike The Deal –
2 wins from 5 runs

14 September Leicester 7f handicap won by Pullyourfingerout –
3 wins from 10 runs

12 September Chester 5f handicap won by Stolt –
5 wins from 15 runs

10 September Southwell 1m4f handicap won by Distinctive Image –
5 wins from 12 runs

7 September Bath 6f maiden won by Milldown Story –
2 wins from 6 runs

New website

A new subscription website will be launched in the next few weeks to replace the existing Racing Trends Revealed blog.
This progressive step forward will see the current trends books converted from their present paper format to an online version. Each race will then be available to download as a PDF file on screen or be printed on paper.

The subscription for the monthly package will be £10 and includes the following:

All 130 races from Racing Trends Revealed Jumps 2009/10, plus an EXTRA nine major events, including the Rehearsal Chase, Tommy Whittle Chase and Victor Chandler Chase.

Exclusive trends ratings for EVERY jumps race.
These ratings will appear on the day of each race and have pinpointed the following winners in recent months: Regal Parade 14/1, Kaldoun Kingdom 8/1 and Jimmy Styles 14/1. They are also excellent timesavers for those with a busy lifestyle as the top trends qualifiers are automatically highlighted.

Performance ratings for the winner of each trends race during the jumps season, which helps identify the ones to follow or avoid (lay).

Every daily qualifier from the Top of the Form chart printed in the Racing and Football Outlook. There will also be a NEW list of daily qualifiers from those races outside the Top 20.

Feel free to contact me regarding the new service, in the meantime, make the most of the free service below!

Performance ratings

Cheveley Park Stakes – Special Duty 75
Tattersall Stakes – Sir Parky 63
Oh So Sharp Stakes – Tabassum 66
Joel Stakes – Confront 75
Middle Park Stakes Awzaan 79
Sun Chariot Stakes – Sahpresa 77
Cambridgeshire – Supaseus 68
Two-Year-Old Trophy – Lucky Like 61

Thursday 1 October 2009

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

I don't do this often but just to inform anyone interested I've backed Applause for Saturday's Cambridgeshire.
16/1 is way too big.

Thursday 24 September 2009

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

Top of the Form

Here are the qualifiers from the Top 20 for Monday 5 October:

5.00 Windsor, Hajmah
5.10 Pontefract, Kloof

Races outside the Top 20:

25 August Southwell 6f maiden won by Comedy Hall –
3 wins from 8 runs

4 September Lingfield 1m2f handicap won by Bab Al Salam –
3 wins from 7 runs

5 September Stratford 2m1f handicap hurdle won by Dancewithedevil –
4 wins from 9 runs

8 September Sedgefield maiden hurdle won by McMurdo Sound –
3 wins from 11 runs

9 September Doncaster 5f handicap won by Total Impact –
6 wins from 18 runs

10 September Kempton 1m handicap won by Captain Flasheart –
2 wins from 3 runs

The missing races - 11 to 20 - from this week's Top 20 are listed below.

No.11
August 8 Newmarket 7f Maiden Stakes 1.Eolith 2.Pollenator 3.Hibaayeb 12 ran
Record of first six home: 4 wins from 9 runs – Eolith, Pollenator (2 wins), Zahoo = +10
Record of last six home: 1 win from 6 runs – Katehari = -4
Total record: 5 wins from 15 runs (33%) for a profit of +£14 to £1 levels. +6

No.12
August 22 Sandown 7f Solario Stakes 1.Shakespearean 2.Buzzword 3.Dubawi Phantom 8 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 3 runs – Shakespearean, Buzzword = +3
Record of last four home: 3 wins from 4 runs – Simenon, Audacity Of Hope (2 wins) = +2
Total record: 5 wins from 7 runs (71%) for a profit of +£12 to £1 levels. +5

No.13 NEW
September 5 Kempton 7f Handicap 1.The Scorching Wind 2.Mac’s Power 3.Wigram’s Turn 13 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Mac’s Power, Feeling Fab = +3
Record of last seven home: 1 win from 1 run – Hurricane Spirit = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 7 runs (43%) for a profit of +£29 to £1 levels. +5

No.14 NEW
August 14 Nottingham 6f Maiden Stakes 1.Society Rock 2.Saddlers Lodge 3.Banks And Braes 9 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Society Rock, Sand Skier = +6
Record of last five home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Boquito (2 wins) = -1
Total record: 4 wins from 10 runs (40%) for a profit of +£19 to £1 levels. +5

No.15 NEW
August 4 Newton Abbot 2m1f Handicap Hurdle 1.Corum 2.Dreams Jewell 3.Deadline 7 ran
Record of first three home: 1 win from 4 runs – Deadline = +3
Record of last four home: 2 wins from 4 runs – Weather Front (2 wins) = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 8 runs (37%) for a profit of +£10 to £1 levels. +5

No.16
August 22 Sandown 1m2f Handicap 1.Prince Of Johanne 2.Rumble Of Thunder 3.Ordoney 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 4 runs – Ordoney = +2
Record of last four home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Jawaab, Agilete = +3
Total record: 3 wins from 10 runs (30%) for a profit of +£18 to £1 levels. +5

No.17
August 27 Southwell 2m Handicap 1.Sally Forth 2.Dulcie 3.Veiled 5 ran
Record of first two home: 1 win from 2 runs – Dulcie = +2
Record of last three home: 2 wins from 2 runs – Veiled = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 4 runs (75%) for a profit of +£12 to £1 levels. +4

No.18
August 7 Worcester 3m Handicap Hurdle 1.Chinara 2.Olmeto Collonges 3.Mith Hill 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 1 run – Little Shilling = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 2 runs – Raslan = +2
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels. +4

No.19 NEW
September 12 Wolverhampton 7f Handicap 1.Captain Macarry 2.Mark Of Meydan 3.Kloof 11 ran
Record of first five home: 1 win from 2 runs – Malcheek = +2
Record of last six home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Balata, Desert Dreamer = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 7 runs (43%) for a profit of +£29 to £1 levels. +4

No.20
July 30 Goodwood 7f Handicap 1.Suruor 2.Shamwari Lodge 3.Akhenaten 12 ran
Record of first six home: 4 win from 9 runs – Shamwari Lodge (2 wins), Akhenaten, Enact = +5
Record of last six home: 2 wins from 9 runs – Dark Mischief, Khor Dubai = -1
Total record: 6 wins from 18 runs (33%) for a profit of +£8 to £1 levels. +4

Performance ratings

Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile – Hibaayeb 69
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Rip Van Winkle 87
Royal Lodge Stakes – Joshua Tree 72
Totesport Challenge Cup – Advanced 71
Cumberland Lodge Stakes – Mawatheeq 77
Diadem Stakes – Sayif 77
Marchpole Handicap – Record Breaker 65
Beresford Stakes – St Nicholas Abbey 69

As mentioned earlier this week, here are some replies to recent comments:

Lemondash Amazon have their information incorrect as there is definitely no paperback version of the new jumps book unless I did something in my sleep I know nothing about – online only.

Alan The best way of subscribing will be via this web address which will be carried over to the new website in approximately three weeks time – www.racingtrendsrevealed. I’m afraid you’ll have to remind yourself or note it down in a diary, although I’m hoping to give it a plug in the Racing & Football Outlook.

Peter It’s a good point you've raised. The reason Tillietubelem wasn’t mentioned on here the day it ran was because the database that informs me when horses from the Top 20 are running, only covers their next two subsequent outings after the chart race – Bangor 15 Aug on this occasion – and this was Tillietubelem’s third, unfortunately.

Regarding there being no listed qualifiers on here on Monday, I’m afraid it was down to a lack of time as that’s my busiest day of the week writing. The good news is that I’ll be able to offer more time to the new website so there won’t be any missing information.