Racing Trends Revealed

A new beginning

2009-11-03T10:57:00.001Z

This blog will no longer be updated - please visit www.racingtrendsrevealed.com

Website update

2009-10-24T08:12:00.016Z

Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Sunday 1 November:

1.55 Lingfield, Toballa
3.05 Lingfield, Fantasy Explorer
3.40 Lingfield, Titus Gent

Nice to see a return to form from the Top 20 with those qualifiers around the 8/1 or shorter mark this week returning a profit - more about that approach on the new site - including my RFO nap, Daraz Rose, on Friday.
That puts me 'just' £18 behind Dave Nevison in the naps table so I need to pull a 20-1 out the hat next week! I may have had a better chance but for recording the most non-runners.

Website update - Part VIII !!!!!

The website developers showed me the amendments on Friday and it looked very polished. Content will now be added over the weekend before the launch button can be pressed on Monday - it then takes 24-48 hours to go live so it should be accessible around Wednesday.

The trends races will be available on pdf files via Adobe software that is free to download. I suggest anyone without this software should download it now to save time once the site is live - Adobe can be downloaded for free at
http://get.adobe.com/uk/reader/
(It took 15 minutes when I dowloaded it)

Thanks again for your patience, in the meantime, here are the jumps trends.

Trends

Wetherby

WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners emerged from the first four in the betting.
 12 were aged six to 10-years-old – experience helped as young, second-season hurdlers struggled.
 12 scored at Class 2 level or higher.
 11 had been off the track around five months or longer and were last seen at a Grade 1 venue – the last four arrived via Aintree. The two exceptions with a recent outing came via the Flat.
Pettifour last year became the fifth winner to lump a penalty for a Graded victory, and was also trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ second winner in three years.

FUTURE POINTERS This early season staying hurdle has improved in terms of quality in recent times, attracting two past World Hurdle winners in the last four renewals, although it hasn’t provided much of a springboard for the future. Only two winners managed to follow-up after Wetherby – both six and seven-year-olds – in the Long Distance Hurdle and Elite Hurdle, while eight failed in the former event at Newbury, and five flopped in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.

Were West Yorkshire Hurdle winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 6 wins from 37 runs returned a loss of -£23.85 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 8 runs – all eight were unplaced.

Runners-up next three runs: 6 wins from 32 runs returned a loss of -£15.47 to a £1 level stake.
2006 My Way De Solzen – Cheltenham Grade 2 Novice Chase
2003 Royal Emperor – Towton Novices’ Chase
1996 What A Question – Long Distance Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 7 runs
2006 My Way De Solzen ► Arkle Chase (1st)
2003 Royal Emperor ► Royal & SunAlliance Chase (2nd)

Third-placed next three runs: 2 wins from 12 runs returned a profit of +£50.00 to £1 levels (50/1 on the Flat).
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.

CHARLIE HALL CHASE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners scored over 3m, including seven course and distance winners,
 12 had a minimum of 11 career chase runs.
 12 were seven to 10-years-old.
 11 returned 6/1 or shorter.
 10 made their seasonal reappearance, while two of the three to have already raced made the top two.
A total of nine had their final stop at Aintree, Ayr or Cheltenham.
Those either unpenalised or with a Grade 1 penalty have a good record – avoid Grade 2and 3 penalty carriers.
Howard Johnson, Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies all trained two winners.

FUTURE POINTERS This Grade 2 is one of Wetherby’s highlights of the year, but an event that has had less of an impact for the season ahead since the turn of the century with only Grey Abbey in the last eight years going on to record any significant victories – three runners-up performed marginally better (see below).
Compare this to the previous five years from 1996 to 2000 when four Charlie Hall victors scored soon after Huntingdon, including two winners of the King George VI Chase, and it can only be hoped that a future star emerges from here soon to boost this historic race.

Were Charlie Hall Chase winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 9 wins from 38 runs returned a loss of -£12.70 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 10 runs.
1997 One Man ► Queen Mother Champion Chase (1st)
2006 Our Vic ► Ryanair Chase (2nd)

Runners-up next three runs: 3 wins from 30 runs returned a loss of -£7.67 to a £1 level stake.
2006 Neptune Collonges – Rehearsal Chase
2005 Kingscliff – Betfair Chase
2003 Marlborough – Racing Post Chase
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 6 runs.
2004 Sir Rembrandt ► Gold Cup (3rd)

Third-placed next three runs: 1 win from 12 runs returned a profit of +£5.00 to a £1 level stake.
2002 Gingembre – Hennessy Gold Cup
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.

Bottom of the Form!

2009-10-21T07:55:00.006Z

Performance ratings

Darley Stakes - Steele Tango 72
Challenge Stakes - Arabian Gleam 77
Dewhurst Stakes - Beethoven 79
Champion Stakes - Twice Over 84
Cesarewitch - Darley Sun 70
Rockfel Stakes - Music Show 68
Pride Stakes - Ashalanda 72
Jockey Club Cup - Akmal 70

The above performance ratings from the Flat book will be the last to appear on here, but the upcoming 2009/10 jumps ones will be available on the new website.

The website will be launched in the next five days and you can access it by visiting here as normal, as it will appear automatically via the redirection of the address - www.racingtrendsrevealed.com

Top of the Form

It's been a horrid week for the Top 20 following a decent spell during the last five or six weeks. The base rating in the chart has dropped a few points so may be the crossover of codes - from Flat to jumps - is a factor.

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Friday 23 October:

1.40 Ayr, Corsica
2.10 Ayr, Kristen Jane
3.55 Ayr, Bagber
4.05 Doncaster, Crocus Rose
6.10 Wolverhampton, Bestowed
8.40 Wolverhampton, Illuminative

Here are the final set of new races currently outside the Top 20 - the daily qualifiers from this list can also be found on the new website.

A special mention goes to the Timeform Million earlier in the month which has already produced three winners in smaller races.

3 October Newmarket 7f Timeform Million won by Oasis Dancer -
3 wins from 5 runs

26 September Market Rasen 2m2f handicap hurdle won by Treaty Flyer -
3 wins from 10 runs

27 September Market Rasen 2m4f novice hurdle won by Shadow Dancer -
2 wins from 7 runs

10 September Kempton 1m handicap won by Captain Flasheart -
3 wins from 9 runs

2009-10-14T07:59:00.010Z

Performance ratings

Autumn Stakes - Morana 66
Cornwallis Stakes - Our Jonathan 70

Top of the Form

One of the introductions on the new website will be a list of daily qualifiers from races currently outside the Top 20. These races are ones in which either the top-half of the field have since all reappeared, or ones where the overall rating is too low.

Two recent examples would be the York sprint handicap I mentioned in my RFO column three weeks ago won by Able Master, in which the rating was too low for the Top 20, while Rowan Tiger's Kempton victory on 16 September is a race that was eliminated this week as the first seven home had all reappeared.

It's difficult waving goodbye to races like the Kempton one as they produced three further winners last week - Rowan Tiger (11/4), Cape Marien (7/4) and Mellow Mixture (7/1) - so I'll be keeping track of them and listing the daily qualifiers on a 'B-list' on the new website. Who knows, this list may even start outperforming the Top 20 list, but I'm looking forward to finding out.

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 20 October, while below them is a sample of new races I've just mentioned that sit outside the chart:

2.30 Lingfield, Tuscan Gold
2.30 Lingfield, Classical Piece
3.30 Lingfield, True Decision
3.30 Lingfield, Flamsteed
4.00 Lingfield, Gentle Guru
4.00 Lingfield, Billberry
4.20 Yarmouth, Bahama Baileys
5.00 Lingfield, D'Artagnans Dream

18 September Wolverhampton 7f handicap won by Mabait -
3 wins from 9 runs

17 September Pontefract 2m1f handicap won by Zuwaar -
2 wins from 7 runs

11 September Bangor 3m handicap chase won by Oscar Glory -
3 wins from 8 runs

2 September Hereford 2m4f handicap hurdle won by King High -
4 wins from 10 runs

Top of the Form update

2009-10-06T09:56:00.013Z

Top of the Form

There will be a new blog on Wednesday with performance ratings and fresh races outside the Top 20.
In the meantime, the new Top 20 has been updated so here are the qualifiers for Tuesday 13 October - the date my Dad passed away 20 years ago; now he did know a thing or two about form.

2.40 Leicester, Enhancing
4.00 Huntingdon, Dark Energy
4.10 Leicester, Moscow Oznick
4.10 Leicester, Mista Rossa
5.20 Newcastle, Samizdat

Here are several races currently outside the Top 20 (owing to either a low rating or the top-half of the field having all reappeared.

28 September Brighton 1m2f handicap won by Triple Cee –
2 wins from 3 runs

20 September Uttoxeter handicap hurdle won by Blossom –
2 wins from 6 runs

19 September Newbury Dubai Trophy won by Strike The Deal –
2 wins from 5 runs

14 September Leicester 7f handicap won by Pullyourfingerout –
3 wins from 10 runs

12 September Chester 5f handicap won by Stolt –
5 wins from 15 runs

10 September Southwell 1m4f handicap won by Distinctive Image –
5 wins from 12 runs

7 September Bath 6f maiden won by Milldown Story –
2 wins from 6 runs

New website

A new subscription website will be launched in the next few weeks to replace the existing Racing Trends Revealed blog.
This progressive step forward will see the current trends books converted from their present paper format to an online version. Each race will then be available to download as a PDF file on screen or be printed on paper.

The subscription for the monthly package will be £10 and includes the following:

 All 130 races from Racing Trends Revealed Jumps 2009/10, plus an EXTRA nine major events, including the Rehearsal Chase, Tommy Whittle Chase and Victor Chandler Chase.

 Exclusive trends ratings for EVERY jumps race.
These ratings will appear on the day of each race and have pinpointed the following winners in recent months: Regal Parade 14/1, Kaldoun Kingdom 8/1 and Jimmy Styles 14/1. They are also excellent timesavers for those with a busy lifestyle as the top trends qualifiers are automatically highlighted.

 Performance ratings for the winner of each trends race during the jumps season, which helps identify the ones to follow or avoid (lay).

 Every daily qualifier from the Top of the Form chart printed in the Racing and Football Outlook. There will also be a NEW list of daily qualifiers from those races outside the Top 20.

Feel free to contact me regarding the new service, in the meantime, make the most of the free service below!

Performance ratings

Cheveley Park Stakes – Special Duty 75
Tattersall Stakes – Sir Parky 63
Oh So Sharp Stakes – Tabassum 66
Joel Stakes – Confront 75
Middle Park Stakes Awzaan 79
Sun Chariot Stakes – Sahpresa 77
Cambridgeshire – Supaseus 68
Two-Year-Old Trophy – Lucky Like 61

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

2009-10-01T13:52:00.003Z

I don't do this often but just to inform anyone interested I've backed Applause for Saturday's Cambridgeshire.
16/1 is way too big.

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-09-24T10:47:00.020Z

Top of the Form

Here are the qualifiers from the Top 20 for Monday 5 October:

5.00 Windsor, Hajmah
5.10 Pontefract, Kloof

Races outside the Top 20:

25 August Southwell 6f maiden won by Comedy Hall –
3 wins from 8 runs

4 September Lingfield 1m2f handicap won by Bab Al Salam –
3 wins from 7 runs

5 September Stratford 2m1f handicap hurdle won by Dancewithedevil –
4 wins from 9 runs

8 September Sedgefield maiden hurdle won by McMurdo Sound –
3 wins from 11 runs

9 September Doncaster 5f handicap won by Total Impact –
6 wins from 18 runs

10 September Kempton 1m handicap won by Captain Flasheart –
2 wins from 3 runs

The missing races - 11 to 20 - from this week's Top 20 are listed below.

No.11
August 8 Newmarket 7f Maiden Stakes 1.Eolith 2.Pollenator 3.Hibaayeb 12 ran
Record of first six home: 4 wins from 9 runs – Eolith, Pollenator (2 wins), Zahoo = +10
Record of last six home: 1 win from 6 runs – Katehari = -4
Total record: 5 wins from 15 runs (33%) for a profit of +£14 to £1 levels. +6

No.12
August 22 Sandown 7f Solario Stakes 1.Shakespearean 2.Buzzword 3.Dubawi Phantom 8 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 3 runs – Shakespearean, Buzzword = +3
Record of last four home: 3 wins from 4 runs – Simenon, Audacity Of Hope (2 wins) = +2
Total record: 5 wins from 7 runs (71%) for a profit of +£12 to £1 levels. +5

No.13 NEW
September 5 Kempton 7f Handicap 1.The Scorching Wind 2.Mac’s Power 3.Wigram’s Turn 13 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Mac’s Power, Feeling Fab = +3
Record of last seven home: 1 win from 1 run – Hurricane Spirit = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 7 runs (43%) for a profit of +£29 to £1 levels. +5

No.14 NEW
August 14 Nottingham 6f Maiden Stakes 1.Society Rock 2.Saddlers Lodge 3.Banks And Braes 9 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Society Rock, Sand Skier = +6
Record of last five home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Boquito (2 wins) = -1
Total record: 4 wins from 10 runs (40%) for a profit of +£19 to £1 levels. +5

No.15 NEW
August 4 Newton Abbot 2m1f Handicap Hurdle 1.Corum 2.Dreams Jewell 3.Deadline 7 ran
Record of first three home: 1 win from 4 runs – Deadline = +3
Record of last four home: 2 wins from 4 runs – Weather Front (2 wins) = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 8 runs (37%) for a profit of +£10 to £1 levels. +5

No.16
August 22 Sandown 1m2f Handicap 1.Prince Of Johanne 2.Rumble Of Thunder 3.Ordoney 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 4 runs – Ordoney = +2
Record of last four home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Jawaab, Agilete = +3
Total record: 3 wins from 10 runs (30%) for a profit of +£18 to £1 levels. +5

No.17
August 27 Southwell 2m Handicap 1.Sally Forth 2.Dulcie 3.Veiled 5 ran
Record of first two home: 1 win from 2 runs – Dulcie = +2
Record of last three home: 2 wins from 2 runs – Veiled = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 4 runs (75%) for a profit of +£12 to £1 levels. +4

No.18
August 7 Worcester 3m Handicap Hurdle 1.Chinara 2.Olmeto Collonges 3.Mith Hill 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 1 run – Little Shilling = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 2 runs – Raslan = +2
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels. +4

No.19 NEW
September 12 Wolverhampton 7f Handicap 1.Captain Macarry 2.Mark Of Meydan 3.Kloof 11 ran
Record of first five home: 1 win from 2 runs – Malcheek = +2
Record of last six home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Balata, Desert Dreamer = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 7 runs (43%) for a profit of +£29 to £1 levels. +4

No.20
July 30 Goodwood 7f Handicap 1.Suruor 2.Shamwari Lodge 3.Akhenaten 12 ran
Record of first six home: 4 win from 9 runs – Shamwari Lodge (2 wins), Akhenaten, Enact = +5
Record of last six home: 2 wins from 9 runs – Dark Mischief, Khor Dubai = -1
Total record: 6 wins from 18 runs (33%) for a profit of +£8 to £1 levels. +4

Performance ratings

Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile – Hibaayeb 69
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Rip Van Winkle 87
Royal Lodge Stakes – Joshua Tree 72
Totesport Challenge Cup – Advanced 71
Cumberland Lodge Stakes – Mawatheeq 77
Diadem Stakes – Sayif 77
Marchpole Handicap – Record Breaker 65
Beresford Stakes – St Nicholas Abbey 69

As mentioned earlier this week, here are some replies to recent comments:

Lemondash – Amazon have their information incorrect as there is definitely no paperback version of the new jumps book unless I did something in my sleep I know nothing about – online only.

Alan – The best way of subscribing will be via this web address which will be carried over to the new website in approximately three weeks time – www.racingtrendsrevealed. I’m afraid you’ll have to remind yourself or note it down in a diary, although I’m hoping to give it a plug in the Racing & Football Outlook.

Peter – It’s a good point you've raised. The reason Tillietubelem wasn’t mentioned on here the day it ran was because the database that informs me when horses from the Top 20 are running, only covers their next two subsequent outings after the chart race – Bangor 15 Aug on this occasion – and this was Tillietubelem’s third, unfortunately.

Regarding there being no listed qualifiers on here on Monday, I’m afraid it was down to a lack of time as that’s my busiest day of the week writing. The good news is that I’ll be able to offer more time to the new website so there won’t be any missing information.

Ayr Western meeting

2009-09-15T08:14:00.016Z

AYR TRENDS RATINGS

Ayr Silver Cup (page 203 of the book)

Points are awarded to each horse that fit the following trends (the official rating clue won’t apply this year in a quality renewal, so I’ve replaced it with a *top 10 placing last time and *draw clues from the chart):

Won over 6f -7f = 2pts
Ridden prominently or held up = 1pt
Won a handicap = 1pt
Won a race with 13 runners or more = 1pt
British or Irish-bred = 1pt
*Made the top 10 last time = 1pt
*Drawn 1-7 or 22-27 = ½pt
Raced at Ayr previously = ½pt
Trained by D Nicholls = ½pt

(Maximum score 8½)

Skhilling Spirit = 7½
Johannes = 6½
Pusey Street Lady = 7
Quest For Success = 7½
Fullandby = 7½
Roker Park = 7
Mister Hardy = 8
Invincible Force = 6
River Falcon = 7
Prescription = 6
Master Of Disguise = 4
Six Of Hearts = 7
Joseph Henry = 7½
Tajneed = 8
Aye Aye Digby = 7
Lowther = 6½
My Gacho = 6½
Horatio Carter = 7½
Thebes = 6½
Sea Of Loves = 2½
Protector = 5½
Sudden Impact = 7
Mastership = 7½
Cape Vale = 6½
Red Cape = 6½
Kaldoun Kingdom = 8
Green Manalishi = 7

TRENDS TOP THREE
Mister Hardy - Kaldoun Kingdom – Tajneed

Ayr Gold Cup (page 208 of the book)
Points are awarded to each horse that fits the following trends:

Ran during the last two months = 2pts
Ran at Doncaster, Goodwood or Haydock last time = 1pt
Four to six-year-old = 1pt
Won over 6f = 1pt
9st 3lb or lighter = 1pt
Won a maximum of three handicaps = 1pt
Colt or gelding = 1pt
Trained by D Nicholls = ½pt

(maximum of 8½pts)

Knot In Wood = 5
Garnica = 5½
Abbondanza = 5
Genki = 6
Barney McGrew = 5
Tombi = 7
Evens And Odds = 7½
Intrepid Jack = 6
Redford = 5
Zidane = 4
Brave Prospector = 8
Valery Borzov = 6½
Wi Dud = 6
Jimmy Styles = 8
Hogmaneigh = 4
Signor Peltro = 7
Madame Trop Vite = 2
Sonny Red = 7½
Arganil = 7
Blue Jack = 6
Advanced = 7
Striking Spirit = 8½
Magic Cat = 4
Hitchens = 7
Fol Hollow = 6
Everymanforhimself = 7
Mac Gille Eoin = 7

TRENDS TOP THREE:
Striking Spirit – Brave Prospector – Jimmy Styles

Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 22 September:

3.40 Stratford, Olympian Boy
4.20 Folkestone, Tafaool
5.00 Beverley, Efidium

Here are numbers 11 to 20 from the chart which were missing from the RFO this week - they might look a bit strange as they are obviously in a different format but should make sense:

August 6 Bath 1m3f Handicap 1.Point Of Light 2.Blue Nymph 3.Sounds Of Jupiter 6 ran
Record of first three home: 4 wins from 4 runs – Point Of Light (2 wins), Sounds Of Jupiter (2 wins) = +7
Record of last three home: 0 win from 2 runs = -2
Total record: 4 wins from 6 runs (67%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
+5

August 7 Worcester 3m Handicap Hurdle 1.Chinara 2.Olmeto Collonges 3.Mith Hill 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 1 run – Little Shilling = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 2 runs – Raslan = +2
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 28 Newmarket 7f Maiden Stakes 1.Pollentaor 2.Boogie Diva 3.Qaraaba 12 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 2 runs – Pollenator, Chain Of Office = +5
Record of last six home: 0 win from 1 run = -1
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 18 Brighton 7f Handicap 1.Cavendish Road 2.Fire King 3.Orangeleg 10 ran
Record of first five home: 3 wins from 6 runs – Valid Point (2 wins), Spring Secret = +6
Record of last five home: 0 win from 4 runs = -2
Total record: 3 wins from 10 runs (30%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
+4

August 26 Catterick 5f Handicap 1.Bonnie Prince Blue 2.Mr Wolf 3.Timber Treasure 9 ran
Record of first four home: 0 win from 4 runs = 0
Record of last five home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Hotham, Sea Salt = +4
Total record: 2 wins from 9 runs (22%) for a profit of +£9 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 22 Ripon 6f Yearling Stakes 1.Hold Your Colour 2.Exceedingly Bold 3.Sovereign Secure 12 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 3 runs – Hold Your Colour, Ruthie Babe = +2
Record of last six home: 1 win from 1 run – Stef And Stelio = +1
Total record: 3 wins from 4 runs (75%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 20 Lingfield 1m2f Handicap 1.Some Sunny Day 2.Lunar River 3.Yvonne Evelyn 13 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Some Sunny Day, Ebony Eyes = +1
Record of last seven home: 1 win from 3 runs – Chadwell Spring = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 9 runs (33%) for a profit of +£40 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 20 Epsom 1m4f Ladies’ Handicap 1.Epsom Salts 2.Lord Theo 3.Dramatic Solo 8 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Epsom Salts, Lord Theo = +4
Record of last four home: 1 win from 4 runs – Sky Quest = -1
Total record: 3 wins from 9 runs (33%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 2 Newbury 6f Maiden Stakes 1.Quadrille 2.Chips O’toole 3.Mr Corby 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 5 runs – Quadrille = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 5 runs – Queen’s Grace = +1
Total record: 2 wins from 10 runs (20%) for a profit of +£43 to £1 levels.
+3

July 27 Yarmouth 2m Handicap 1.Baan 2.No Rules 3.Rose Bien 13 ran
Record of first six home: 3 wins from 8 runs – Baan, Rose Bien, Leyte Gulf = +4
Record of last seven home: 0 win from 7 runs = -1
Total record: 3 wins from 15 runs (20%) for a profit of +£14 to £1 levels.
+3

Finally, here are three form races currently outside the Top 20:

13 August Salisbury 1m6f handicap won by Saborido –
4 wins from 11 runs

14 August Newbury 7f maiden won by Pounced –
3 wins from 10 runs

20 August York St Leger Yearlig Stakes won by Midnight Martini –
3 wins from 11 runs

Performance ratings

May Hill Stakes – Pollenator 65
Park Hill Stakes – The Miniver Rose 65
Doncaster Cup – Askar Tau 75
Flying Childers Stakes – Sand Vixen 67
Champagne Stakes – Poet’s Voice 73
Park Stakes – Duff 74
Portland Handicap – Santo Padre 67
St Leger – Mastery 78
Irish St Leger – Alandi 79
Select Stakes – Mac Love 68
National Stakes – Kingsfort 76
Blandford Stakes – Chinese White 73

The quest to find a car is finally over as I left Tuesday’s auction with a 2006 Ford Focus, which should help me do battle with the winter weather on my journey to work.

There’s a strong chance of me producing trends ratings on here for both the Ayr Silver and Gold Cups on Friday as I’m not at the Guardian - some of you may remember the ratings found last year’s Silver winner, Against The Grain, at 20-1

Performance rating and Top of the Form

2009-09-09T09:36:00.009Z

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Monday 14 September:

3.30 Leicester, World Time
3.40 Redcar, Beat The Shower
3.50 Musselburgh, King Of The Moors
4.50 Musselburgh, Distant Sun
5.10 Redcar, Angaric
5.30 Leicester, Shared Moment

Performance ratings

Sprint Cup – Regal Parade 80
September Stakes – Kirklees 79
Sirenia Stakes – Love Lockdown 65
Irish Champion Stakes – Sea The Stars 96
Matron Stakes – Rainbow View 75

Busy, busy, busy, which seems to be the norm these days – I’m currently trying to buy a new car as mine is on the way out. I unsuccessfully attended a car auction on Tuesday morning which was an experience - nice bacon rolls though - so I’m off on the Tour De Showrooms today to try and pick up something I can drive to work on Thursday; no Donny for Davey.

I’m also in the process of putting the new website together that will be launched in tandem with the new jumps season in late-October. This means a better service will be offered, allowing me quality time to list things like the Top of the Form races currently outside the Top 20, which I’m unable to do this week for instance.

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-09-02T09:44:00.013Z

SPRINT CUP, Haydock (page 185 of the Flat book)

Points are awarded for the following trends:
1pt = Raced during the past two months
1pt = Ran three times or more that season
1pt = Won in Pattern company
1pt = Three to five-year-old
1pt = Middle to high draw
½pt = Won over 6f
½pt = Officially rated 111 or higher
½pt = Trained by Roger Charlton, Tim Easterby or Barry Hills.

Al Qasi = 4½
Asset = 4
Corrybrough = 4½
Equiano = 4½
High Standing = 6
J J The Jet Plane = 5
Judd Street = 4½
Main Aim = 5
Regal Parade = 5½
Art Connoisseur = 6
Bushranger = 3
Finjaan = 4½
Sayif = 5
Fleeting Spirit = 5

Top three: Art Connoisseur – High Standing – Regal Parade

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers from the new chart for Tuesday 8 September:

1.50 Sedgefield, Stormin Heart
2.35 Goodwood, Forethought
2.35 Goodwood, Tallawalla
2.35 Goodwood, Zahoo
3.45 Goodwood, Vale Of York
3.55 Lingfield, Dawson Creek
3.55 Lingfield, Count On Guest
4.55 Goodwood, Sarah Park
5.20 Sedgefield, Bijou Dan
5.30 Goodwood, Dens Gift

Here are several races currently outside the Top 20:

12 July Perth 2m1f handicap hurdle won by Guerilla -
6 wins from 18 runs

1 August Goodwood 7f maiden won by Yarra River -
2 wins from 5 runs

3 August Windsor 6f maiden won by Seeking Dubai -
3 wins from 12 runs

8 August Haydock 5f handicap won by Skylla -
4 wins from 8 runs

8 August Newmarket 7f maiden won by Eolith -
2 wins from 5 runs

8 August Newmarket 1m2f handicap won by Whispering Gallery -
2 wins from 3 runs

24 August Hamilton 1m5f handicap won by Terenzium -
3 wins from 5 runs

Performance ratings

Prestige Stakes - Sent From Heaven 60
Celebration Mile - Delegator 78
Winter Hill Stakes - Campanologist 76
Futurity Stakes - Cape Blanco 70
Moyglare Stud Stakes - Termagant 68
Supreme Stakes - Ordnance Row 74

The dates from the book have gone walkies of late with the Futurity Stakes actually taking place a week earlier than stated - not that much was missed with a 1-5 shot winning! The Supreme Stakes has also taken place instead of 8 September as marked in the book, but I hope some of you spotted the error in time.

Performance ratings

2009-08-19T19:57:00.021+01:00

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 1 September:

2.30 Ripon, Carpe Diem
2.40 Newton Abbot, Gracechurch
2.40 Newton Abbot, Attrapeur
3.00 Ripon, Silver In The Sand
3.00 Ripon, Iron Velvet
3.30 Ripon, Knights Victory
5.00 Ripon, Bright Sparky
5.00 Ripon, English Archer
5.00 Ripon, Mystified
5.00 Ripon, Leyte Gulf
5.00 Ripon, Rapid Desire

Performance ratings

Debutante Stakes – Lillie Langtry 67
Lonsdale Cup – Askar Tau 73
Great Voltigeur Stakes – Monitor Closely 76
Acomb Stakes – Elusive Pimpernel 69
International Stakes – Sea The Stars 93
Gimcrack Stakes – Showcasing 75
Ebor – Sesenta 65
Yorkshire Oaks – Dar Re Mi 77
Lowther Stakes – Lady Of the Desert 73
Nunthorpe Stakes – Borderlescott 79
Solario Stakes – Shakespearean 62

I was set to list the TOTF races currently outside the Top 20 but can’t find the piece of paper containing the list – we had a car boot sale earlier so may be someone got home with more than they paid for!

I’ve not been around on here much of late – apart from listing the daily TOTF qualifiers – as life is very hectic. From a work perspective I’m waiting to see how certain cards fall before knowing how things will pan out in the next few months.
For instance, I was recently asked to write a weekly sports betting preview for the Guardian website, something I now do each Tuesday following TOTF day for the RFO on Monday. By the way, anyone wanting to read the sports preview can visit:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sportingbet
(It goes up each Friday)

The reason I’m mentioning all this is because Chris recently left a comment enquiring about the next Racing Trends Revealed book for the jumps 2009/10. Well, all I can say at the moment is that it will be available, not in print, but online.

I’m looking to launch a new website for the start of the jumps season that I’m really excited about, which will offer a subscription package including Racing Trends Revealed, Top of the Form and other extras.

There will be further details in September, but launching the website with a subscription charge will allow me to dedicate myself into giving the kind of service I am currently unable to offer owing to a lack of time.

Anyway, for now, it’s all to look forward to so stay tuned for further details.

Still no broadband!

2009-08-12T12:38:00.013+01:00

My broadband is still down so things will be flakey until Talktalk get their backside in gear - I'm told it might be back some time on Wednesday, we'll see.

Here are the belated qualifiers from the Top 20 for Wednesday 19 August:

2.50 York, Taajub
3.25 York, Siberian Tiger

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Rose of Lancaster Stakes – Jukebox Jury 80
Sweet Solera Stakes – Long Lashes 64

I attended Newmarket on Saturday for the Sweet Solera where my nine-month old daughter made her racecourse debut. It felt strange not entering the main grandstand, instead heading for the ‘garden enclosure’ where we pulled up two chairs and a blanket – good value for a fiver as we still got to see the big screen once the runners had passed us by, plus my daughter received a free ice cream voucher at the entrance.
One who ran at Newmarket on Saturday that I’m keeping an eye on is Musaalem, who finished last in the valuable 7f handicap.
This gelding clearly has a dislike for undulations and dips, which was confirmed by trainer Willie Haggas’ wife when he scored at Doncaster in July, stating: “He wants a sound surface and a flat track.”
His form away from flat tracks is a miserable 18th of 25, 5th of 10, 24th of 29 and now 15th of 15, following Saturday. He remains well handicapped and is one to watch for on a flat track like York or Doncaster.

TOP OF THE FORM

The Top 20 has been doing itself proud in recent weeks with Tuseday’s sole qualifier, Daison, making the frame at 50/1 – hope at least one of you had a few buttons each-way. The problem is when I do pat myself on the back regarding the good form of the Top 20, I end up jinxing things so let’s hope the curse hasn’t been cast on this occasion!

Here are several races that haven’t made the Top 20:

23 June Newton Abbot 2m1f novice chase won by Archie Boy –
3 wins from 8 runs

8 July Newmarket 1m2f maiden won by Blizzard Blues –
4 wins from 10 runs

10 July Ascot 6f maiden won by Trailblazing –
3 wins from 7 runs

11 July Chester 1m2f handicap won by Mick’s Dancer –
4 wins from 13 runs

18 July Haydock 1m handicap won by Kindest –
3 wins from 9 runs

20 July Yarmouth 6f maiden won by Syrian –
2 wins from 9 runs (Syrian looks very interesting)

22 July Catterick 6f handicap won by Neo’s Mate –
4 wins from 10 runs

26 July Carlisle 1m3f handicap won by Simonside –
3 wins from 6 runs

30 July Nottingham 1m handicap won by Kindest –
3 wins from 5 runs

1 August Goodwood 6f nursery won by Bluie –
2 wins from 3 runs

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-08-05T13:15:00.010+01:00

Keep an eye on the link opposite which will get underway soon - http://bettingbusiness.blogspot.com/

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 11 August:

4.15 Newton Abbot, Daison

One qualifier that appeared on the blog last week and deserves another chance is Mr Skipiton. Entered at Lingfield last Saturday evening, he was given a very poor ride in being taken down the centre of the straight track (slowest) before staying on into fourth.
Having recorded a career best prior, he is definitely better than this fourth placing, especially on better ground.

Here are several races that haven’t made the Top 20:

6 June Ascot 1m4f Hardwicke Stakes won by Bronze Cannon –
4 wins from 9 runs

25 June Hamilton 6f maiden won by Colonel Mark –
2 wins from 7 runs

3 July Doncaster 7f maiden won by Primaeval –
3 wins from 4 runs

7 July Wolverhampton 1m4f handicap won by The Last Alzao –
3 wins from 9 runs

10 July Ascot 6f maiden won by Trailblazing –
2 wins from 6 runs

12 July Stratford 2m novice hurdle won by Fongoli –
2 wins from 3 runs

21 July Ffos Las 1m2f handicap won by Hollow Green –
2 wins from 2 runs

26 July Carlisle 1m3f handicap won by Simonside –
3 wins from 4 runs

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Heritage Handicap (1m2f) – Drumfire 73
Gordon Stakes – Harbinger 77
Lennox Stakes – Finjaan 74
Molecomb Stakes – Monsieur Chevalier 66
Heritage Handicap (1m4f) – Classic Vintage 65
Vintage Stakes – Xtension 71
Sussex Stakes – Rip Van Winkle 90
Heritage Handicap (1m2f) – Roman Republic 68
King George Stakes – Kingsgate Native 79
Goodwood Cup – Schiaparelli 81
Totesport Mile – Laa Rayb 75
Richmond Stakes – Dick Turpin 68
Oak Tree Stakes – Summer Fete 63
Nassau Stakes – Midday 79
Stewards’ Cup – Genki 70

Top of the Form update

2009-07-28T10:12:00.011+01:00

Performance ratings from Glorious Goodwood, along with races currently outside the Top 20 will appear on Wednesday.

Here are the qualifiers from the chart for Tuesday 4 August:

4.30 Newton Abbot, Present Oriented
4.50 Catterick, Monopole

Here are the qualifiers from the chart for Monday 3 August:

4.30 Newton Abbot, Crazy Eyes (WON 9/1)
5.45 Carlisle, Wednesdays Boy (lost)
7.30 Windsor, Kinsya (NR)
7.45 Carlisle, Smarty Socks (3rd 7/1)
8.45 Carlisle, Its A Mans World (WON 2/1)

I had the option of napping either Mujood or Marajaa at Goodwood on Tuesday as they finished third and fifth, respectively, in Dancourt's red-hot Newmarket race - No.14 in this week's chart - but opted for the former!
I originally went for Marajaa (honest) as he had the plum draw in stall 20, but opted for Mujood's course form instead...how annoying, that would've put me into second in the RFO naps table!!!!

Performance ratings

International Stakes – Al Muheer 71
King George VI Stakes – Conduit 88
Hong Kong Stakes – Judge ‘n Jury 68
Princess Margaret Stakes – Lady Of The Desert 63
Phoenix Stakes – Alfred Nobel 75

Top of the Form

In what is an extremely busy time for the Flat season with masses of meetings each week, not to mention Glorious Goodwood getting underway today, the list of races currently outside the Top 20 is huge – too much for any individual to plough through. Therefore, I’ve based the following list on quality rather quantity, highlighting just those races with a race rating of +4 – such events would normally make the chart in an average week.

11 June Nottingham 1m2f handicap won by Wake Me Now –
4 wins from 14 runs

27 June Windsor 1m handicap won by Flying Valentino –
2 wins from 5 runs

3 July Sandown 1m6f handicap won by Alanbrooke –
2 wins from 7 runs

4 July Haydock 1m4f handicap won by Barshiba –
2 wins from 2 runs

11 July Nottingham 6f handicap won by Bold Ring –
2 wins from 8 runs

Performance rating and Top of the Form

2009-07-21T10:23:00.010+01:00

Top of the Form chart qualifiers for Monday 27 July:

4.15 Southwell, Bountiful Bay
5.00 Yarmouth, Rose Bien
8.55 Uttoxeter, Dunbrody House

Thanks for the comments left here regarding the qualifiers outside the Top 20 - you've convinced me to carry on listing them, so here they are. (BTW, Well done to Anonymous (?) who nailed the 50-1 winner on Tuesday, especially as that qualifier was switching codes).

14 June Doncaster 6f maiden won by Lady Springbank -
4 wins from 10 runs

18 June Ffos Las 3m handicap hurdle won by Quattrocento -
3 wins from 11 runs

24 June Salisbury 1m4f handicap won by Classic Vintage -
2 wins from 3 runs

27 June Windsor 6f maiden won by Dorback -
2 wins from 5 runs

27 June Newmarket 7f maiden won by Missionaire -
2 wins from 6 runs

28 June Uttoxeter 2m handicap chase won by Star Of Germany -
2 wins from 7 runs

28 June Uttoxeter 2m5f maiden hurdle won by Night Cru -
2 wins from 6 runs

4 July Carlisle 7f handicap won by Rising Kheleyf -
2 wins from 4 runs

Performance rating

Hackwood Stakes - High Standing 77

I noticed that High Standing overcame a long-standing future trend in becoming the first Wokingham winner to follow-up since 1990, which could mark him out as a bit special.

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-07-14T12:49:00.008+01:00

Top of the Form

Here are the chart qualifiers for Monday 20 July:

2.30 Ayr, Calypso Girl
3.30 Ayr, Another Luke
5.45 Yarmouth, Jelly Mo
7.20 Windsor, Pepi Royal
7.50 Windsor, Miss Hollybell
8.20 Windsor, Gold Express
8.50 Windsor, Hatch A Plan
9.00 Beverley, Wednesdays Boy

And here are several races currently outside the Top 20:

9 June Salisbury 1m4f Handicap won by Yonder –
3 wins from 9 runs

17 June Kempton 1m2f Handicap won by Buddy Holly –
3 wins from 10 runs

18 June Ffos Las 2m Novices’ Chase won by Danehill Willy –
2 wins from 8 runs

18 June Royal Ascot 1m4f King George V Handicap won by
Cosmic Sun – 3 wins from 10 runs

24 June Salisbury 5f Maiden won by Swan Wings –
2 wins from 4 runs

27 June Lingfield 7f Handicap won by All For You –
2 wins from 8 runs

29 June Windsor 6f Maiden won by Maverin –
2 wins from 3 runs

A note also about a race that was omitted from the chart a few weeks ago won by Jimwil at Redcar on June 9 (the race was omitted as all the top half of the field had reappeared). This event has continued to thrive and now boasts a crisp subsequent record of eight victories from 20 runs.
Here is a close-up of the race along with subsequent results:

9 June Redcar 7f Handicap

1. Jimwil – 5th, 4th
2. Mo Mhuirnin – Won, Won, 2nd
3. Dean Iarracht – 4th, 7th
4. Honimiere – Won, 3rd
5. Secret City - Won
6. Mister Tinktastic – Won, Won, 3rd
7. Seldom – 10th
8. Nino Zachetti – 6th
9. Elusive Fame – 11th, Won
10. Hel’s Angel – Won, 6th
11. Allformary
12. Auld Arty – 7th
13. Dillenda
14. Soviet Rhythm
15. Dark Velvet

I napped Jimwil in the RFO last week when he flopped at Warwick, but I noticed in a recent interview on the Attheraces website that trainer Michael Dods stated the horse could win again on a straight track.

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Heritage Handicap (6f) – Total Gallery 68
Cherry Hinton Stakes – Misheer 67
Falmouth Stakes – Goldikova 76
July Stakes – Arcano 73
Princess of Wales’s Stakes – Doctor Fremantle 78
Heritage Handicap (1m2f) – Firebet 69
Superlative Stakes – Silver Grecian 65
Bunbury Cup – Plum Pudding 72
July Cup – Fleeting Spirit 82
Summer Stakes – Serious Attitude 71
John Smith’s Cup – Sirvino 65
Irish Oaks – Sariska 85

Newmarket July meeting...and The Ashes!

2009-07-07T10:18:00.011+01:00

Top of the Form chart qualifiers for Monday 13 July:

4.30 Ayr, Espero
6.30 Windsor, Bold Rose
6.30 Windsor, Danzadil
6.50 Wolverhampton, Trade Centre

Almost the ultimate day on Friday with one winner and four placed from the five TOTF qualifiers, including Ocean Transit at 10-1, who was my RFO nap two weeks ago, so in a way I was relieved it didn't win yesterday!

The first day of the Newmarket July meeting on Wednesday was also a tense one as I got through to the last - a maiden - in the Placepot, where I had the first two in the market from big yards, both of whom were well backed. I worked out that the dividend would pay around £800-900 if I got one in the frame, but as many of you will have no doubt experienced with this bet, both managed to bomb out! The dividend paid just under two grand in the end and the one that finished in the frame I changed my mind about - we've all been there!

I hope some of you have better luck over the weekend, and if you get a chance, check out some of the races I've listed below that are currently out of the Top 20 which produced several winners the previous week, along with Firbet at 7-1 this week.

And here are several races outside of the Top 20 that are also worth a study:

15 May Aintree 3m handicap hurdle won by Simple Glory -
3 wins from 8 runs

30 May 1m handicap won by Uncle Fred -
6 wins from 12 runs

31 May Perth 3m handicap chase won by Backstage -
3 wins from 8 runs

11 June 1m2f handicap won by Wake Me Now -
3 wins from 7 runs

12 June 1m2f handicap won by Eastern Aria -
2 wins from 6 runs

13 June 2m5f handicap chase won by Uptown Lad -
2 wins from 7 runs

17 June 1m4f handicap won by Summer Lodge -
2 wins from 4 runs

20 June Ayr 1m handicap won by Firebet -
3 wins from 4 runs

25 June 7f seller won by Iron Out -
2 wins from 5 runs

Performance ratings

Lancashire Oaks - Barshiba 68
Old Newton Cup - Red Merlin 65
Coral Charge (Sprint Stakes) - Ialysos 75
Eclipse Stakes - Sea The Stars 90

Ice creams & tennis

2009-07-01T09:31:00.012+01:00

Here are the Top of the Form chart qualifiers for Monday 6 July:

3.00 Brighton, Handcuff
3.00 Brighton, Green Poppy

Here are several races that you may want to explore which haven't made the Top 20, either because of their rating or because the top half of the field have all since run.

21 May Sandown 1m6f handicap won by Penang Princess -
4 wins from 7 runs

27 May Southwell Handicap Hurdle won by You And I -
2 wins from 5 runs

8 June Windsor 6f Handicap won Miss Hollybell -
5 wins from 11 runs

8 June Newton Abbot Novice Hurdle won by Classic Swain -
2 wins from 4 runs

10 June Beverley Maiden won by Espiritu -
2 wins from 5 runs

11 June Nottingham 1m Handicap won by Firebet -
2 wins from 3 runs

12 June Market Rasen Handicap Hurdle won by Runaround Sue -
2 wins from 4 runs

18 June Leicester 5f Handicap won by Mattamia -
3 wins from 3 runs

20 June Ascot 6f Wokingham won by High Standing -
2 wins from 6 runs

Following the past two summer's of being locked away writing trends books, I have a clear conscience in putting my feet up and watching the tennis with strawberries and ice cream...Come on Andy!

Here are the performance ratings from the book covering last weekend, unfortunately the winner of the Railway Stakes, Alfred Nobel, looked below par to me, so I wouldn't be steaming in for an ante-post price.

Performance ratings
Criterion Stakes - Imbongi 77
Chipchase Stakes - Knot In Wood 70
Northumberland Plate - Som Tala 60
Pretty Polly Stakes - Dar Re Mi 69
Railway Stakes - Alfred Nobel 62
Irish Derby - Fame And Glory 87

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-06-24T12:21:00.010+01:00

Performance ratings from last weekend will appear on Wednesday

Top of the Form qualifiers for Tuesday 30 June:

2.45 Hamilton, Metroland
5.00 Brighton, Auld Arty
6.30 Thirsk, Fistral
8.00 Thirsk, Fesko

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Queen Anne Stakes – Paco Boy 84
King’s Stand Stakes – Scenic Blast 86
St James’s Palace Stakes – Mastercraftsman 86
Coventry Stakes – Canford Cliffs 80
Ascot Stakes – Judgethemoment 62
Windsor Castle Stakes – Strike The Tiger 63
Jersey Stakes – Ouqba 75
Prince of Wales’s Stakes – Vison D’Etat 85
Royal Hunt Cup – Forgotten Voice 74
Queen Mary Stakes – Jealous Again 74
Norfolk Stakes – Radiohead 66
Ribblesdale Stakes – Flying Cloud 69
Gold Cup – Yeats 85
Britannia Stakes – Fareer 65
King George V Stakes – Cosmic Sun 58
King Edward VII Stakes – Father Time 75
Coronation Stakes – Ghanaati 82
Wolferton Handicap Stakes – Perfect Stride 76
Queen’s Vase – Holberg 66
Chesham Stakes – Big Audio 61
Hardwicke Stakes – Bronze Cannon 80
Golden Jubilee Stakes – Art Connoisseur 78
Wokingham Stakes – High Standing 73
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes – Drill Sergeant 69
Queen Alexandra Stakes – Caracciola 63

It’s been fascinating listening to people’s opinion on whether there was a draw bias on the straight track at Ascot last week. I actually felt in races when the field came middle to stands’ side there was an advantage with those drawn low.
Although winners like Scenic Blast and Canford Cliffs overcame high stalls, there were still a number of runners that found themselves at a disadvantage, including the following runners – all of whom can be given another chance:

Windsor Castle Stakes – 5th Hearts Of Fire
Jersey Stakes – 5th Donativum
Royal Hunt Cup – 4th Nanton
Queen Mary Stakes – 4th Capercaille
Albany Stakes – 3rd Chachamaidee
Buckingham Palace Stakes – 5th Racer Forever
Golden Jubilee Stakes – 3rd Lesson In Humility

As there are no qualifiers today, I thought I’d mention a horse from another list of horses I keep – Sparton Duke, who runs in the 8.50 at Kempton tonight.
He has caught my eye several times over the last six months over 6f/7f, each time shaping as though a mile would suit, and he finally gets a chance to stretch his legs over that distance here - his sire Xaar was a winner of the trip.

PS. If anyone hasn't seen Wednesday's Racing Post, Racing UK is currently free-to-air while customers resubscribe, owing to Setanta's collapse. Looks like an afternoon of Carlisle and Salisbury for me!

Tuesday qualifiers

2009-06-23T09:54:00.002+01:00

Here are the Top of the Form qualifiers for Tuesday 23 June:

2.15 Beverley, Scilly Breeze
2.30 Brighton, Miss Gibbs
3.15 Beverley, King Of Rhythm
5.30 Brighton, Berrymead
7.25 Newbury, Sarahthecarer
7.35 Newton Abbot, Knapp Bridge Boy
8.05 Newton Abbot, Nawow
8.05 Newton Abbot, In The Frame
8.30 Newbury, Burza

There will be a review of Royal Ascot here tomorrow, including the performance ratings for the Flat 2009 trends book.

END OF ASCOT

2009-06-17T09:38:00.008+01:00

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers entered on Monday 22 June:

2.30 Wolverhampton, Waterside
2.30 Wolverhampton, Wizard Looking
2.45 Lingfield, Carmenero
3.30 Wolverhampton, Pipers Piping
4.30 Wolverhampton, Global Village

ROYAL ASCOT - DAY FIVE

Good luck to all on the final day of Royal Ascot, there is plenty in the book to study, including two tough sprints. The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes is also another corking race, in which Crackentorp has a belting chance according to my in-form colleagues Tony Paley and Ron Cox at the Guardian.

Saturday 20 June Top of the Form qualifiers:

2.30 Ascot, Queens Hawk
2.30 Ascot, Fly Silca Fly
2.30 Ascot, Bikini Babe
2.40 Newmarket, Artistic License
3.50 Newmarket, Strictly
2.50 Redcar, Sorrento Moon
5.20 Redcar, Isitcozimcool
5.50 Lingfield, Top Tinker
7.35 Haydock, Mango Music

ROYAL ASCOT - DAY FOUR

I'm limited on time again unfortunatley as I'm in at the Guardian today, but here are Friday's Top 20 qualifiers from Top of the Form:

2.10 Redcar, Cassidy K
2.30 Ascot, Falling Angel
3.15 Redcar, Mccormack
3.30 Musselburgh, Ask Dan
3.30 Musselburgh, Minturno
5.40 Redcar, What A Fella
8.50 Ayr, Imprimis Tagula

ROYAL ASCOT - DAY THREE

Not much time today with my cold slowing things down.

However, I've been entering an in-house competition at the Guardian all week, so can pass on my Thursday tips.
A word of warning, though, as I've opted for value in these tips in order to try and make a decent level stake profit that is required to win it.
The person currently in the lead goes for the outsider in every race and has already nailed a 33-1 shot - he had a 66-1 shot at Cheltenham but still managed to lose the comp!

2.30 Kingdom Of Light
3.05 July Jasmine
3.45 Veracity
4.20 Magaling
4.55 Four Winds
5.30 Highland Glen

A welcome few winners for Top of the Form yesterday, but more consistency needed me thinks. Anyway, here are Thursday's qualifiers:

5.30 Ascot, Kimberley Downs
5.40 Ripon, Byron Bay
7.20 Fffos Las, In The Frame
8.50 Fffos Las, Free Gift

ROYAL ASCOT - DAY TWO

OK, things are getting embarrassing now. Could the Top 20 be in any worse form? At this rate my column is in danger of being renamed Top of the Lays!

The trends for the Ascot Stakes were a kick down below too, as none of my short-list even made the top four. All of this partnered with the fact my wife and I are run down with stinking colds and have been stuck in bed watching the Beeb’s Ascot coverage. So much for our summer plans of ice creams and strawberries in the garden…more like Lemsip!
However, as the Labour party promised us back in the nineties: “Things can only get better”…please!

The prospect of producing trends ratings for the 31-runner Royal Hunt Cup didn’t appeal in my current state, so I’ve selected the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

I’ve awarded points for the following trends:

Four or five-year-old = 2pts
Top three last time = 2pts
Returned 9/1 or shorter = 2pts
Won a Group 1 = 2pts
Won over 1m2f = 1pt
Arrived via Ireland, abroad or Epsom = 1pt

Estejo = 6
Never On Sunday = 10
Tartan Bearer = 7
Tazeez = 4
Trincot = 6
Twice Over = 7
Virtual = 6
Vision D’Etat = 8

Top two rated: Never On Sunday – Vision D’Etat

TOP OF THE FORM

Despite an ugly 14-1 winner on Monday for the Top 20 qualifiers, the consistency that had been flowing in previous weeks has been amiss since Saturday week – where have those 20-1 placed runners gone?

Maybe I overestimated the current Top 20 a few weeks ago that looked a strong one, if so, then there is plenty of new blood in this week’s updated chart to give things a freshen up.

Wednesday 17 June Top 20 qualifiers:

2.55 Hamilton, Imperial Angel
2.55 Hamilton, Royal Society
2.55 Hamilton, Street Spirit
4.00 Worcester, Free Gift
5.50 Hamilton, Piverina
6.50 Ripon, Bold Account

ROYAL ASCOT - DAY ONE

2009-06-16T08:59:00.003+01:00

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Ballycorus Stakes – Duff 69
Ballymacoll Stud Stakes – Splashdown 62
Reg Griffin (Betfair) Trophy – Swiss Diva 65

There is plenty to study from the Flat trends book this week with Royal Ascot getting underway on Tuesday. I’ve added several races that were missing from the first edition, including today’s Ascot Stakes, an event in which I’ve produced some trends ratings below – Galient looks interesting to me having been blocked in last year's renewal.

ASCOT STAKES (4.55, BBC2)

I’ve awarded points for the following trends:

Raced in past two months over 1m4f+ = 2pts
Ridden prominently or held up = 2pts
Four to six-year-old = 2pts
Flat handicap win in Class 3 or lower = 1pt
Four runs or less that season = 1pt
Yet to score beyond 2m on Flat = 1pt
Officially rated in the 80s = 1pt

Valentino Rossi = 6
Baddam = 5
Som Tala = 8
Rajeh = 9
Keenes Day = 9
Humble Opinion = 5
Gala Evening = 7
Midas Way = 7
Woolfall Treasure = 8
Sesenta = 8
Judgethemoment = 7
Fire And Rain = 7
Galient = 10
Liberate = 10
Ermine Sea = 9
Always Bold = 10
Kayf Aramis = 5
Clopf = 7
Missoula = 8
Royal Rationale = 9

Top three rated: Always Bold – Galient – Liberate

TOP OF THE FORM

Despite an ugly 14-1 winner on Monday for the Top 20 qualifiers, the consistency that had been flowing in previous weeks has been amiss since Saturday week – where have those 20-1 placed runners gone?

Maybe I overestimated the current Top 20 a few weeks ago that looked a strong chart, if so, then a wave of seven new entries this week will help freshen things up.

My TOTF nap last week, Oriental Cavalier, ran well in third but not good enough, so I've opted for value this week in an attempt to get me up the RFO table.
Monsieur Chevalier could've been the nap having featured in the chart, but I decided upon Kingdom Of Light in Thursday's Norfolk, and whose Haydock victory - currently outside the Top 20 - was again boosted by Reeds Bay last week.

Tuesday 16 June Top 20 qualifiers:

2.15 Thirsk, Cassidy K
2.50 Thirsk, Arken Lad
3.25 Thirsk, Kipchak
4.20 Ascot, Red Jazz
4.20 Ascot, Raines Cross
5.45 Thirsk, What A Fella
7.30 Yarmouth, Global Village
7.45 Newton Abbot, Lethal Gun
8.30 Yarmouth, All Spin
8.45 Newton Abbot, Watership Down
9.00 Yarmouth, Corton Charlemagne

There are simply too many races currently residing outside the Top 20 to list here, but one that deserves a mention is Sherman McCoy's Goodwood victory on 30 May. The second and third, Cool Strike and Harlestone Snake, have both landed similar handicaps since, while the fourth, seventh and eighth were all second.
The race rating for this warm event is +3, by the way, keeping it just outside the chart, and is another good example of why I thought the chart was in such strong position as there is plenty of talent waiting outside.

Unlucky at Epsom?

2009-06-11T12:18:00.006+01:00

Well, I like to tell things as they are and the dry spell continues for the Top 20 I'm afraid, with qualifiers performing miserably during the past week - all of this after I confidently stated the chart was on solid ground!
One thing's for sure, though, when you're at the bottom, there's only one way to go and may the tide turn very soon.

Monday 15 June Top 20 qualifiers:

2.45 Carlisle, Asserting
3.00 Sedgefield, Obara DAvril
3.30 Sedgefield, Im Your Man
3.30 Sedgefield, Toulouse Express
4.30 Sedgefield, What Happened
5.00 Sedgefield, Fred Bojangals
7.10 Warwick, Velvet Band
7.40 Warwick, Green Poppy

Whilst reviewing last week's form book, I did my annual digging in the final event of the Epsom meeting - the six-furlong sprint handicap.

This race usually has several hard-luck stories in what is a rough race around Tattenham Corner, and when glancing through this year's 'unlucky' runners, I wondered whether past sprinters that had suffered similar interference went on to gain compensation.

Therefore, I made a note of those runners from the race to have made the top-half placings which earned a comment along the lines of 'not a clear run' or 'hampered', along with their subsequent results during the last five years:

2008
No qualifiers

2007
2nd Prince Namid – L, L, L
7th Idle Power – L, L, L
10th Pacific Pride – L, L, L

2006
5th Indian Trail – L, Won 11-4, L
11th Hidden Dragon – L, L, L

2005
4th Native Title – L, L, L

2004
3rd Lafi – Won 6-1, L, L
6th Blackheath – L, L, L
10th Undeterred – L, L, L

No clear profit was accumulated in backing all the qualifiers, but it was interesting to note that the two runners to go and score were both the highest finishers, and both trained by, you guessed it, David Nicholls.

And so the burning question is, what was 2009's qualifier - the answer: Something.

This is a very interesting runner as he was with Terry Mills until switching to David Nicholls in 2008, however he was slow to show any form for the yard in eight races before winning on his reappearance at Kempton in April. Nicholls revealed afterwards: "The horse was seriously ill in Dubai last year and everyone has been very patient with him".
Something was also ridden prominently until this year when patient tactics have increased confidence - the feeling of passing other horses works wonders, rather than them passing by the horse by.
He looks a different horse this year with new tactics over a strongly run 6f, along with a very nice handicap mark, and with all four career wins over 7f, this will put him in good stead for for one of the top 6f sprint handicaps this summer.
He may not make the cut in the Wokingham, but the 6f sprint at Newcastle on Northumberland Day could have his name on.

Aye Aye Digby was also very unlucky, but considering it started as 10/3 Fav, I get the impression the public will want him again next time at shorter.
Piscean was another sufferer back in ninth, but as the results above show, those from mid division didn't turn out that profitable.

Breather before Royal Ascot

2009-06-09T12:22:00.005+01:00

Wednesday 10 June qualifiers from the Top 20:

2.00 Beverley, Maidtorun
3.00 Beverley, Addison de Witt
4.20 Brighton, Hand Painted
4.20 Brighton, Pipers Piping
4.50 Brighton, Ask Jenny
4.50 Brighton, Thoughtsofstardom
6.20 Kempton, Agilete
6.20 Kempton, Teen Ager
7.20 Kempton, Macs Power
8.20 Kempton, Kipchak

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Ballyogan Stakes – Lesson In Humility 67
Diomed Stakes – Mac Love 70
Heritage Handicap (Rose Bowl) – Seeking The Buck 62
Coronation Cup – Ask 83
Oaks Stakes – Sariska 80
Heritage Handicap (3yo) – River Captain 62
Princess Elizabeth Stakes – Eva’s Request 71
“Dash” Stakes – Indian Trail 62
Derby Stakes – Sea The Stars 89

It was good to see two above-par winners of the British Oaks trials from Lingfield and York fight out the finish at Epsom, considering the Derby was dominated by the Irish.
I was also relieved to see the top three draws in the “Dash” not falling to the three highest as I was contemplating an adventurous plot to land the Tote Trifecta. When stall 18 came up first I was sweating!

A similar ploy would’ve come up trumps at Folkestone on Monday, though, where the stands’ rail has been an advantage for a few seasons now. The 5f sprint handicap fell to the three lowest stalls in 1, 2 and 3 for a nice Tote Trifecta payout of £297.40 – keep a lookout for any other sprints here during the summer.

A little snippet I thought I’d pass on is that during some form study over the weekend I noticed that Siren’s Gift may have a preference for racing in events with a smallish number of runners (I was going to originally state ‘small fields’ but didn’t want to confuse anyone thinking of small field/track!)

This talented mare has been a public horse of late, including when tipped by Pricewise – does anyone get the recommended prices of that column anymore by the way? – and has been sent off favourite on three of her last four races.

My take is that she is still well handicapped and could pick up a sprint handicap on fast ground in a race with around 12 runners or less. Her form figures in races with 13 runners or more are: 00030030300, including all three outings this season.

TOP OF THE FORM

This week is already panning out like the two previous ones with a stream of placed runners – I hope some of you are backing these form runners each-way!

I’m confident of the current Top 20, which should be the case through to around late-September when the season winds down. A normal week would see races given a form rating of +4 make the base of the chart, but there are plenty queuing up at numbers 21 downwards. These include several newcomers, so I’ve listed them below for you to do some digging.

New races with +4, +3, +2 ratings:

26 May Leicester, 6f claiming stakes won by Chocolicious –
2 wins from 4 runs (+4)

9 May Hexham, 2m4f novices’ hurdle won by Moonwalking –
2 wins from 5 runs (+4)

15 May Hamilton, 1m1f maiden stakes won by Hillview Boy –
3 wins from 9 runs (+3)

7 May Goodwood, 1m handicap won Charlotte Point –
3 wins from 7 runs (+2)

15 May York, 1m4f handicap won by Antigua Sunrise –
2 wins from 6 runs (+2)

16 May Newmarket, 7f handicap won by Oceana Blue –
4 wins from 11 runs (+2)

Other form races – the majority didn’t make the chart as the top half of the field have already reappeared since.

21 April Kempton, 1m4f handicap won by Hendersyde –
3 wins from 6 runs

8 May Aintree, Handicap Hurdle won by Giovanna –
3 wins from 7 runs

9 May Ascot, 5f maiden won by Little Perisher –
2 wins from 5 runs

12 May Warwick, 1m handicap won by Gaily Noble –
2 wins from 6 runs

16 May Newbury, 7f Newbury won by Prince Of Dance –
2 wins from 5 runs

20 May Lingfield, 1m3f maiden won by Akmal –
2 wins from 4 runs

23 May Catterick, 6f handicap won by Johannes –
3 wins from 9 runs

Last week’s nap, Sweet Lightning, was a non-runner at Epsom, leaving yours truly in desperate need of a winner this week to lift me up the RFO naps table.
I’ve opted for Oriental Cavalier again, who let me down on heavy ground at Haydock last month, but deserves another chance on better ground at Chester – a track that will suit his prominent style.

No doubt you will have noticed that I’ve been updating the main weekly blog each day with the TOTF qualifiers at the bottom of the page. To save scrolling down each day, though, I’ll leave them at the top of the page to save searching – aren’t I thoughtful!

Monday 8 June update

2009-06-02T11:39:00.009+01:00

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Zetland Gold Cup – Kingdom Of Fife 66
Hilary Needler Trophy – Don’t Tell Mary 62
National Stakes – Monsieur Chevalier 62
Henry II Stakes – Geordieland 79
Brigadier Gerard Stakes – Cima De Triomphe 75
John of Gaunt Stakes – Main Aim 83
Sandy Lane Stakes – Danehill Destiny 70

There were some serious performances regarding Royal Ascot during the past week, including Main Aim, Don’t Tell Mary and Monsieur Chevalier. Interesting also to note Geordieland’s improved attitude, with Jamie Osborne reporting that the eight-year-old now passes horses on the gallops and is a much happier horse – could this be his year in the Gold Cup?

Epsom is only days away, but don’t forget the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown on Thursday from page 81 in the book.
As for Epsom, there is plenty in the book to get stuck into over the weekend, plus a horse I mentioned back in April – Sweet Lightning – is taking up the engagement I imagined.
Willie Muir’s gelding was given an interesting sighter of the Downs when running on into sixth in a competitive handicap last time and looks to have this fellow on course for the 1m2f handicap on Friday – a race he won with Shadoof in 1998.

TOP OF THE FORM

I hope some of you have been finding the daily entries from the Top 20 of use – I would say so judging by the increase in traffic on here – and what a week it almost was with placed runners at huge odds, including 100-1 and 25-1.

Anyone who saw Dazeen finish like a train into second at 100-1 would’ve been impressed with that as he came from way off the pace following a slow start and was unfortunate to bump into Rose Blossom, who amazingly for a juvenile broke the all-age record of dipping under 58 seconds over 5f – maybe Rose Blossom and Don’t Tell Mary for the Queen Mary forecast!

There were also several winners last week, including Kyllachy Storm at 12-1, while this week also got off to a profitable start with Stonehaugh at 10-1 on Monday, so let’s hope there are plenty to come in Derby week.

If I get the chance tomorrow – my wife and daughter are currently waiting for me by the front door to take them out for the day – I’ll add the new races currently outside the Top 20 on here.
Although only the top 10 were published in the RFO this week, owing to a couple of full-colour ads in the paper, all the new entries were given a mention in my copy.

Here are Monday's qualifiers from the Top 20:

3.15 Folkestone, Doubly Guest
3.30 Newton Abbot, Blush Tone
4.15 Folkestone, Carmela Maria
4.30 Newton Abbot, Kisha King
8.30 Windsor, Sign Of The Cross

(I'm afraid I've had no time to list the new races currently outside the Top 20)

Manic Monday update

2009-05-26T08:40:00.016Z

Here are Monday's qualifiers from the Top of the Form chart:

2.45 Carlisle, Lucayan Dancer
4.45 Carlisle, Mister Jingles
4.45 Carlisle, Stonehaugh
5.15 Carlisle, Fern House
6.55 Windsor, Play It Sam

A fresh blog, including last week's performance ratings and Top of the Form updates, will appear on Tuesday.

2009-05-20T09:31:00.009Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Musidora Stakes – Sariska 73
Duke of York Stakes – Utmost Respect 77
Dante Stakes – Black Bear Isalnd 77
Hambleton Stakes – Yamal 73
Yorkshire Cup – Ask 83
Aston Park Stakes – Tastahil 75
Lockinge Stakes – Virtual 81
London Gold Cup – Aqwaal 57

TOP OF THE FORM
There was a mountain of winners from the Top 20 last week, so I’m going to list this week’s qualifiers daily – time permitting. You’ll be relieved to know that Tuesday didn’t produce a winner from eight runners, although Devil’s River was second at 10-1.

Bank Holiday Monday's qualifiers from the Top 20.

1.30 Goodwood, Queens Hawk
1.30 Goodwood, Toga Tiger
3.00 Cartmel, Galley Slave
3.25 Chepstow, Whip Up
3.45 Goodwood, Pullyourfingerout
3.45 Goodwood, Timelord
3.50 Leicester, Ever So Bold
4.00 Chepstow, Duke of Normandy
4.20 Goodwood, Laudatory
4.25 Leicester, Apache Ridge

Here are some more races that haven’t made the Top 20:

6 April Kelso, 3m1f handicap hurdle won by Industrial Star –
3 wins from 10 runs

15 April Beverley, 5f maiden won by Jack My Boy –
2 wins from 12 runs (Heslington is interesting from here)

17 April Newbury, 1m2f conditions stakes won by High Heeled –
2 wins from 7 runs

18 April Doncaster, 1m2f handicap won by Redesignation –
3 wins from 10 runs

21 April Bath, 1m2f handicap won by Lyra’s Daemon –
2 wins from 12 runs

26 April Ludlow, Claiming Hurdle won by Treaty Flyer –
4 wins from 8 runs

1 May Musselburgh, 1m1f handicap won by Sirvino –
2 wins from 4 runs

5 May Fakenham, 2m selling hurdle won by Treaty Flyer –
3 wins from 6 runs

There’s plenty of meat on the above bone to be cracking on with until my next appearance – I’ll update this blog with the daily TOTF qualifiers instead of a new blog each day. I will also be producing a piece for the Guardian website on Thursday.

Fast and furious Flat action

2009-05-12T08:57:00.001Z

A prize if anyone can guess what the following figures represent: 6.10/7.05/6.25?

They are my daughter’s waking-up figures, and as you can see from the latter one, it’s been an early Tuesday morning.

But enough of my poor stinging eyes, here are the performance ratings from the weekend with Fame And Glory’s victory standing out as the best-ever performance in the Derrinstown Derby Trial, and we all know what O’Brien’s above-par winners of that event subsequently achieved.

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Cheshire Oaks – Perfect Truth 61
Chester Cup – Daraahem 66
Huxley Stakes – Doctor Fremantle 72
Chester Vase – Golden Sword 70
Dee Stakes – South Easter 65
Ormonde Stakes – Buccellati 75
Victoria Cup – Swift Gift 62
Spring Trophy – Beacon Lodge 69
Oaks Trial – Midday 65
Derby Trial – Age Of Aquarius 70
Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes – San Sicharia 66
Derrinstown Derby Trial – Fame And Glory 78

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are a further five races that haven’t made the Top 20 as yet.

27 April Windsor, 5f maiden won by Azif –
3 wins from 7 runs

18 April Nottingham, 5f handicap won by Raccoon –
2 wins from 11 runs
(not many from the top-half have reappeared)

18 April Doncaster, 1m Listed won by Staying On –
2 wins from 4 runs

16 April Newmarket, 5f maiden won by Its Alright –
5 wins from 9 runs
(This race would now be in the Top 20 following
Crown’s Windsor victory on Monday evening)

26 March Wolverhampton, 5 handicap won by Almaty Express –
3 wins from 6 runs

There will be a York preview blog appearing on the Guardian website on Wednesday where I’ll be highlighting some winner-finding clues for the three-days on the Knavesmire.

It's Chester...time for Coleen and co

2009-05-06T09:03:00.007Z

And so the equine roadshow moves on to the delights of Chester, a spectacular venue that stages the Chester Cup on Wednesday, an event I have previewed below from a trends perspective.

Instead of listing all the categories under each runner as previously, I will just list their overall trends rating based on the following clues from the book: Grade 1 venue last time (1pt), four to seven-year-old (1pt), prominent or held up (1pt), British or Irish-bred (1pt), victory in a Class 4 or better handicap over 1m6f or further (1pt), likely SP of 16/1 or shorter (1pt), and official rating 85-95 (½pt).
*Bonus 1pt for winning either the Queen’s Prize or a 2m handicap at Newbury last time.

Chester Cup trends ratings

7½ Desert Sea
6½ Ajaan, 6½ Gala Evening, 6½ Som Tala
6 Amerigo, 6 Daraahem
5½ Double Banded, 5½ Halla San, 5½ Tilt
5 Downhiller
4½ Formax, 4½ Warsaw Pact
3½ Inchnadamph, 3 Macorville (NR), 2½ Dunaskin, 2 Hindu Kush,
0 Carte Diamond

Chester also holds three distinct memories for me – the good, the bad and the ugly.

The good – When I was at the Racing Post in 1998, I landed a touch on Classy Cleo in the sprint handicap. A cracking sprinter who returned to score again over the same course and distance later that summer when I once again backed her.

The bad – Richard Hills having a nightmare ride on Zonus in 2004, who finished like an express train after a blocked passage. He also returned over the same course and distance later that summer, but I wasn’t on then when obliging at 8/1.

The ugly – My only visit to Chester racecourse around five years ago may well be my last as it was heaving, and getting a drink was like entering a rugby scrum. In fact, the large groups of men that seemed to have leased certain parts of the course for the day were distributing two-pint glasses backwards from the bar over their mate’s heads like a rugby ball.

Talking of which, I noticed there was a report of a major incident involving alcohol at last weekend’s Guineas meeting at Newmarket – oh dear. This follows another fight at Newmarket a few years ago when I was present – no I wasn’t involved – overlooking the paddock.
Maybe these racegoers should take a leaf out of the Irish racegoers manual as they seem to escape trouble-free, mainly because the majority understand and enjoy their horseracing, along with a drink. I didn’t read of any incidents at the Punchestown Festival – or should that be ‘Mullinstown' – where there were some very revealing performance ratings from the book.

The performance that interested me the most was Mikael D’Haguenet, who also clocked a smart rating at Cheltenham, and he looks one to punt ante-post at the start of next season once plans are made clear – hurdles or jumps?

Performance ratings

Flat
SAGARO STAKES – Patkai 75
DAHLIA STAKES – Heaven Sent 73
2,000 GUINEAS – Sea The Stars 84
HERITAGE HANDICAP (6f) – Evens And Odds 67
JOCKEY CLUB STAKES – Bronze Cannon 75
1,000 GUINEAS – Ghanaati 75
PALACE HOUSE STAKES – Amour Propre 76
PRETTY POLLY STAKES – Take The Hint 63
MOORESBRIDGE STAKES – Curtain Call 76

Jumps
CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE – Hurricane Fly 75
PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP – Notre Pere 89
CHAMPION INH FLAT RACE – Dunguib 66
SWORDLESTOWN CUP NOVICE CHASE – Barker 77
WORLD SERIES HURDLE – Fiveforthree 82
CHAMPION HURDLE – Solwhit 85
CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE – Mikael D’Haguenet 78
CHAMPION 4YO HURDLE – Jumbo Rio 69

I’m relieved to have left all of the dates ‘open’ in this season’s Flat book as races are constantly being switched, such as the 6f Heritage Handicap at Newmarket last weekend, which used to be run on the Saturday but took place on the Sunday this time around. I trust you all noticed such changes, but I will try to flag up any major ones in advance on here.

TOP OF THE FORM

The Top 20 took care of itself last week when supplying plenty of winners and things are beginning to warm up with the Flat season settling down. One of the races I mentioned on here last week from 2008’s backend also found a tasty winner at Ascot in Apple Charlotte at 11/2.

Here are some more races that haven’t made the Top 20 for various reasons – by the way, Trafalgar Bay’s Doncaster race is outside the chart as the rating is too low, but I hope some of you backed him and it’s worth backtracking to the Lincoln meeting in search of horses that were disadvantaged on the stands’ side that weekend as Evens And Odds was another to improve at Newmarket on Sunday.

17 March Kempton, 2m handicap hurdle won by Spanish Conquest –
6 wins from 17 runs

2 April Aintree, Grade 1 novices hurdle won by Walkon –
2 wins from 5 runs

4 April Lingfield, 5f maiden won by Soccer –
2 wins from 5 runs

8 April Nottingham, 5f handicap won by Mattamia –
3 wins from 14 runs

8 April Nottingham, 5f novice stakes won by Star Rover –
2 wins from 6 runs

18 April Doncaster, 6f handicap won by Proclaim –
2 wins from 4 runs

18 April Doncaster, 5f maiden won by Patteresa Girfl –
2 wins from 7 runs

It’s also worth giving Song Of Praise another chance to redeem herself as this filly’s Wolverhampton victory from March 23 (currently in the Top 20) has worked out exceptionally well.

Finally, I mentioned Calzaghe (Flat only) and Sweet Lightning last week as two horses that caught my eye of late, well, add Breakevie to that list after a tender ride from an inexperienced pilot at Donny on Saturday.

Things are hotting up

2009-04-28T11:43:00.003Z

Here are the weekend’s performance ratings from Sandown and Leicester – don’t forget the big races from Punchestown can be found in the jumps book throughout this week, starting with the Champion Novice Hurdle at 4.20pm on Tuesday.

GORDON RICHARDS STAKES – Tartan Bearer 80

Bet365 (SANDOWN) MILE – Paco Boy 82

Bet365 CLASSIC TRIAL – Above Average 64

LEICESTERSHIRE STAKES – Asset 69

Bet365 CELEBRATION CHASE – Twist Magic 85

Bet365 GOLD CUP CHASE – Hennessy 68

I don’t usually comment on how the trends worked out in my books, but they certainly came to the fore at the weekend. The Celebration Chase in particular was kind, with only two runners officially rated 154 or higher, one of whom was a Paul Nicholls French-bred.
I’d be interested to hear from anyone regarding the past weekend’s trends and if they managed to include the winners in their bets, and if not, what put you off backing the winner? For instance, I left Tax Free alone at the Craven meeting as I thought David Nicholls was out of form…I thought about it too much!

It’s a shame only six runners have turned up for Ascot’s Sagaro Stakes on Wednesday but as mentioned earlier, there is still plenty to get stuck into from the jumps book at the Punchestown Festival throughout the week. Then it’s time for a deep breath ahead of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket – from which there are seven races in the Flat 2009 book, and then the Chester May meeting next Wednesday…eyes down for a full house!

TOP OF THE FORM

Despite the base rating in the Top 20 still lower than ideal, there were plenty of winners in the past week, although I was unable to find one for my nap in the RFO with Nisaal flopping at the weekend. I’ll be giving him one more chance, possibly over a straight 7f.
The race from which he graduated at Doncaster did take some knocks last week, but I’ve decided to nap Trafalgar Bay at Ascot on Wednesday as he should be a fair price and could find some improvement over 1m.

The Jewson Handicap Chase from Cheltenham that I mentioned here recently has since produced a further three winners, and here are several maidens from last backend that have produced numerous winners this season:

9 October 2008, Newbury, 6f maiden won by Film Set –
5 wins from 12 runs

23 October 2008, Brighton, 1m maiden won by Giltano Hernando –
6 wins from 12 runs.

1 November 2008, Newmarket, 7f maiden won by Apple Charlotte –
6 wins from 16 runs.
(Some of those from the top-half of the field have been beaten, but three from the bottom-half scored at 11/2, 9/1 & 33/1).

Finally, I appreciate there are plenty of horses to keep track of in what is a hectic life, but I thought I’d mention two more that caught my eye in the past week.

Calzaghe – I napped this for the Observer on Sunday at Brighton and he was pulled wide for a winning run when blocked. He still hovers on a tidy mark.

Sweet Lightning – Some of you may have also spotted this four-year-old at Epsom on the Beeb last Wednesday when stopped in his run – could he be back for the Heritage Handicap here in June?

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

2009-04-21T07:38:00.008Z

Here are the past week’s bumper performance ratings from both codes, with plenty to chew on regarding the future.

FLAT
Feilden Stakes – Redwood 68
Nell Gwyn Stakes – Fantasia 73
European Free H’cap – Ouqba 70
Abernant Stakes – Tax Free 72
Craven Stakes – Delegator 74
Earl of Sefton Stakes – Tazeez 80
Doncaster Mile – Staying On 69
Greenham Stakes – Vocalised 70
Fred Darling Stakes – Lahaleeb 65
Spring Cup – Extraterrestrial 63
John Porter Stakes – Enroller 75
Ballysax Stakes – Fame And Glory 75

JUMPS
Kevin Brady (Festival) Novice Hurdle – Oscar Dan Dan 62
Powers Gold Cup – Aran Concerto 71
Rathbarry (Dunboyne) Novice Hurdle – Kempes 65
Irish Grand National – Niche Market 74
Silver Trophy Chase – Atouchbetweenacara 76
Future Champion Novices’ Chase – Deep Purple 74
Scottish Champion Hurdle – Noble Alan 68
Scottish Grand National – Hello Bud 70

Compiling the above ratings has occupied most of my Wednesday morning so there isn’t much time for a lot else, as I promised the grass would be cut before my wife returns at 3pm and there is Epsom and snooker on the box…o-oh!

However, I will squeeze in a few points of interest from the past week.

First, I hope some of the examples I gave here last week regarding the trends ratings at Newmarket came in handy. Both sets of analysis managed to short-list the winners, and I managed to back Ouqba on Wednesday. I wish I could say the same about Tax Free on Thursday when I attended – nice to see the weather’s sunny this week! – but I only backed the first two: Edge Closer and Knot In Wood as I thought the David Nicholls yard was out of form.
However, I came out of the day with no damage as I backed Tazeez in the Earl Of Sefton – hope some of you noticed he was an above-par winner of the Cambridgeshire, which is a five-star race. Whether he turns out to be as good as Gosden’s Halling from the nineties is another thing, but he looked in good condition in the paddock.

(PS. The first trainer I saw that day was Alan Bailey – looks a bit like the late-Freddie Williams – who trained Its Alright to win at 7/1. Did I back it?…exactly!).

TOP OF THE FORM

I’ve been contacted several times regarding ways of profiting from the Top 20, but as I’ve stated, there are many and it really is a case of finding a way that suits you.
A good example came last week when the current number one race produced runner-up, Mount Benger, to score for a third subsequent time, this time at 33/1.
I only rate runners on their next two outings, and only consider punting them until they have won and then scratch them, but Mount Benger proved not for the first time in the past year since I’ve been producing my column, that it can pay to stick with the first three during the next two months.
I hope some of you have found a way of nailing winners from the Top 20 and feel free to share any thoughts on here. I tend to keep a list of horses that I ‘bold up’ in my RFO copy on an alert website, which paid dividends on Monday when Royal Wedding won at a very generous 7/1.

I’m working four shifts at the Guardian this week from Friday to Monday, but will try and blog again if I get a chance - in the meantime have a look at the following site http://formbet.co.uk/

Finally, a message to Tom, who joined me at Newmarket last week – I’ve enjoyed reading through the Odds On magazines you gave me, hope to meet up again soon.

Newmarket’s got more talent...following Fantasia

2009-04-16T07:01:00.005Z

Here are my trends notes for the Abernant Stakes on Thursday (3.00pm).
I’ve awarded 1pt for all seven categories matched, plus a further 1pt for a top five finish last time out.

Here's hoping they work out as well as Wednesday's European Free Handicap as I'll be at Newmarket on Thursday - hopefully not in the rain!

Hatta Fort = 5
Returned 14/1 or shorter (based on early prices) = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 0
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 1

Matsunosuke = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Edge Closer = 6
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 1
Top five last time out = 0

Equiano = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 0
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Exclamation = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 0
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Knot In Wood = 7
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 1

Mac Gille Eoin = 3
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 0
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Orpsie Boy = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 0
Officially rated 102 or higher = 0
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 1

Prohibit = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Redford = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 0
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 0
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 1

Spirit Of Sharjah = 3
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 0
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 0
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Tax Free = 6
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 0
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 1

Zidane = 5
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 1
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 0
Officially rated 102 or higher = 1
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Angus Newz = 4
Returned 14/1 or shorter = 0
Scored over 6f = 1
Boasted Newmarket experience = 1
Arrived via Doncaster, Kempton or Newmarket = 1
Drawn middle to high = 1
Officially rated 102 or higher = 0
Richard Hannon-trained = 0
Top five last time out = 0

Trends top three: Knot In Wood – Edge Closer – Tax Free

Newmarket’s got talent

2009-04-15T09:12:00.002Z

Here are my trends ratings/notes for the European Free Handicap on Wednesday (3.35).
I’ve awarded 1pt for the first four categories matched, and ½pt for the last three (Newmarket or Newbury last time out, official rating and trainer)

Art Connoisseur = 4½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = 0
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Marine Boy = 3½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 0
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = 0
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Awinnersgame = 4½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = 0
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Ouqba = 5
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Saxford = 5
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Snoqualmie Girl = 4
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 0
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Courageous = 4½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = 0
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Penny’s Gift = 5½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 1
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = ½
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = ½

Rose Diamond = 3½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 0
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = 0
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Wildcat Wizard = 3½
Raced at least three times as a juvenile = 1
Raced in a Group event as a juvenile = 1
Made their seasonal reappearance = 1
First three in the betting = 0
Arrived via Newmarket or Newbury = 0
Officially rated 100 to 106 = ½
Gosden or Hannon-trained = 0

Trends top three: Penny’s Gift – Ouqba – Saxford

Take your pick...Newmarket or Cheltenham?

2009-04-14T09:16:00.005Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

GLADNESS STAKES – Mad About You 73

EASTER STAKES – Pure Poetry 64

(Fairyhouse ratings next week)

I have to admit Easter was difficult – having to leave my baby behind for a weekend break over in Cambridge.

Each hour I missed her staring at me, and there was a big hole on my lap where I usually play with her. But they say absence makes the heart grow fonder, and it was a great moment when I was finally re-united with my laptop – I even missed my daughter too!

As a result, I didn’t get too involved on the punting side but I will be this week at Newmarket (don't forget Wednesday's Silver Trophy Chase at Cheltenham on page 145 of the jumps book).
I’ll be attending on Thursday for the Craven Stakes (pages 21-26 of the new Flat book), when the Abernanat Stakes also takes place.
It will be nice to attend this year as I was in Outlook Towers at Canary Wharf last year, and went desperately close to winning the sprint with Assertive. If the forecast rain arrives this week, then Knot In Wood could be carrying my money after a third in the Cammidge Trophy – two third-placed runners from there gained compensation at Newmarket.

Anyway, I’ll be back later in the week with my trends notes for one of the Newmarket races.

TOP OF THE FORM

As predicted, another quiet week for the Top 20, as the jumps season makes way for the Flat, despite two winners emerging from the top two races – Sam Lord and Petrosian.

Here is a list of races currently hovering outside the Top 20, the majority of which have a rating below -2.

12 March, Cheltenham, Jewson Novices Handicap Chase won by
Chapoturgeon – 2 wins from 7 runs

13 March, Cheltenham, Triumph Hurdle won by Zaynar –
2 wins from 8 runs

13 March, Cheltenham, Foxhunter Chase won by Cappa Bleu –
3 wins from 7 runs

14 March, Newcastle, Handicap Hurdle won by Cassius –
2 wins from 10 runs

19 March Ludlow, Claiming Hurdle won by Apache Dawn –
3 wins from 12 runs

22 March, Wincanton, Handicap Hurdle won by Spanish Cruise –
2 wins from 7 runs

26 March, Carlisle, Handicap Chase won by Open De L’isle –
2 wins from 3 runs

PR & TOTF (Updated)

2009-04-07T12:00:00.004Z

(Apologies folks, but the Gladness Stakes at the Curragh on page 20 of the new Flat book took place last Sunday 5 April and not this Sunday. I will try and inform you all of any more date changes before the event in future)

There have also been date changes from the jumps book to the racing at Fairyhouse over Easter as follows:
Sunday 12 April - Rathbarry (Dunboyne) Novice Hurdle (page 144)
Sunday 12 April - Powers Gold Cup (page 142)
Monday 13 April - Irish Grand National (page 143)
Tuesday 14 April - Citroen (Festival) Novice Hurdle (page 141)

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Long Distance (Liverpool) Hurdle – Big Buck’s 90
Bowl Chase – Madison Du Berlais 89
4-Y-O Novices’ Hurdle – Walkon 75
Fox Hunters’ Chase – Trust Fund 66
Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Bouggler 67
Red Rum Handicap Chase – Oh Crick 74
Mildmay Novices’ Chase – Killyglen 75
Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Ogee 75
Melling Chase – Voy Por Ustedes 89
Top Novices’ Hurdle – El Dancer 70
Maghull Novices’ Chase – Kalahari King 81
Aintree Hurdle – Solwhit 85
Grand National Chase – Mon Mome 78

I was a big fan of french bread – especially with soup – prior to the weekend, but following the Grand National, French-breds are not a favourite of mine!

Not that I would’ve backed Mon Mome via the trends in 20 attempts, but hats off to my colleague at the Guardian, Chris Cook, who supported the beast at 180-1 on Betfair.

However, I did learn that Mon Mome translates as ‘my kid’ – just a shame I didn’t know that on Saturday morning when my wife and mum were scanning the runners looking for name clues. They were really chuffed when I told them my discovery on Sunday – a hundred times happier!

Anyone looking to have another shot at finding a National winner, though, won’t have to wait long as the Irish equivalent takes place on Easter Monday as part of the Fairyhouse Festival – see page 143 of the jumps book, and note the date change.

Both books will be required over Easter, however, as Kempton stage the Easter Stakes.
Kempton at Easter goes together like cornflakes and milk, and always reminds me of a touch I landed in 1996.
Back then sprint handicaps were my specialist subject, until a few years ago when the value disappeared. However, at that time a lot of information like the draw and trends were less exposed, and my accounts book in which I kept years' worth of draw stats told me in 1996 that high numbers were massively favoured on the sprint course in large fields.
The six-furlong sprint handicap I was eyeing up also had a good recent history for four-year-olds according to my Superform annuals – no click of a button on the internet then, but plenty of midnight oil.

There was only one four-year-old with a high draw – stall 17 of 18 – so Eastern Prophets picked himself.
The race was shown live on Channel 4, and it was my day off at the Racing Post, so I sat back with my Easter egg and watched it romp home on the far side at 20-1, although the dodgy camera angle down the middle of the track didn’t make it clear until the final furlong when I saw it pass the spiral staircase that still stands on the track – try spotting it on the box this Saturday.

I miss the turf racing at Kempton these days, especially the separate sprint course - similar to Sandown – as it used to provide many badly drawn qualifiers to follow (first horse home from a bad draw).
But the show goes on, and the Easter Stakes is still a decent event, along with the Snowdrop Stakes – shrewdies may remember from 2008 to keep a note of the first two home in that race for a clue in the Dahlia Stakes at the Guineas meeting.

TOP OF THE FORM

A quiet week for the Top 20 chart, during a phase where both codes of our sport intertwine, and the jumps season makes way for the Flat.
I mentioned this at the end of the Flat season as a time to tread carefully from a form perspective as the closing season’s form turns mouldy as the new term’s formpath just starts out. All-weather form is also being transferred to the turf and it often takes around two or three weeks to settle down. If we had 10 Brocklesby’s in the current chart then fine, but it may pay to let the chart mature in the coming weeks of the Flat.
As for the Brocklesby, Eight Hours was a fourth winner from that race at Wolverhampton on Monday, however the bookies are well aware of the form with all four victors going off favourite.

GRAND NATIONAL TOP FOUR

2009-04-04T08:03:00.001Z

The four I've backed in the National, based on trends are:

PARSONS LEGACY
BATTLECRY
CORNISH SETT
SOUTHERN VIC

Ratings and Top of the Form

2009-04-01T11:09:00.005Z

(Please note, the Grade 2 Mersey Novices' Hurdle on page 132 of the jumps book, traditionally run on the Thursday, is now the opening race on Saturday)

Here are the first performance ratings from the new Flat 2009 book:

CAMMIDGE TROPHY – Prime Defender 72

LINCOLN – Expresso Star 74

MAGNOLIA STAKES – Dansant 75

ROSEBERY STAKES – Greylami 61

Prime Defender got the book off to a good start as an ideal trends winner of the Cammidge Trophy, especially with Barry Hills having trained two previous victors.
I was contacted several times last week regarding how to compile a short-list of fancies per race from the book, and I mentioned using a ratings system to help with the task – something I first used in the mid-nineties.

The system simply involves awarding one point for every trend a runner matches, with bonus points for strong trends, as can be seen below for the aforementioned Cammidge Trophy.

Inxile

Off the track 3 months or longer = +1
Experienced pattern company (bonus point for top three) = +2
British or irish-bred = +1
Four-to seven-year-old = +1
11 or more career runs = 0
scored over 6f = 0
experienced top four at Doncaster = 0
won a class 2 hcp or listed = +1
barry hills or richard hannon-trained = 0
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Beacon Lodge
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

Beaver Patrol
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Hoh Hoh Hoh
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

Internationaldebut
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Knot In Wood
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +8

Music Box Express
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +4

Prime Defender
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +10

Tamagin
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Vitznau
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Max One Two Three
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Pusey Street Lady
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +8

Quiet Elegance
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

TOP THREE TRENDS RATINGS
+10 Prime Defender
+8 Knot In Wood
+8 Pusey Street Lady

Accurate results like this don’t occur every time – especially finding the first three – but using the ratings can be a handy method and don't take as long as you may think.

I have applied the same method to the 2009 Grand National for you all to use (see bottom of this blog), awarding bonus points at this stage only to Irish-bred runners. More specific clues can be applied, such as those that made the top five last time, Nigel Twiston- Davies runners or those that ran between four and six times that season, to form a more accurate list.

I’ll leave that option open, but the idea at this stage is to apply the main trends from the book to sort out the top contenders and then use other information such as good ground, trainer form etc to whittle the short-list down further.

I selected Parsons Legacy as an ante-post bet on a previous blog when the weights were first published and noticed on the front of Wednesday's Racing Post that there has been a tipster gamble on him (33/1 into 14-1), so let’s hope that hasn’t jinxed the beast!

TOP OF THE FORM

The Top 20 runners showed a crumb of profit last week – 83p to be precise – following several winners including ones at 11-1 and 5-1.
The idea of highlighting each runner daily last week was to show that a profit can be made some weeks by following each runner to level stakes. Other methods can then be used within the system to enhance profits – for instance, concentrating on just those with a reasonable chance, say, 12-1 or shorter, which would’ve returned a bigger profit last week. Or perhaps following only those runners that finished in the top-half of the field from a race in the chart.

Here are some more races that haven’t as yet made the Top 20.

3 March, Exeter, novice chase won by Picts Hill – 3 wins from 8 runs.

11 March, Huntingdon, novice chase won by Muthenbar – 2 wins from 3 runs.

16 March, Hereford, handicap hurdle won Patrixbourne – 2 wins from 3 runs.

Grand National trends ratings

CLOUDY LANE = 6 points
Raced during the past two months = 1 point
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1 point
Won over 3m or further = 1 point
Winless or just one win that season = 0 points
Officially rated 136-149 = 0 points
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0 point
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1 point
Eight to 11-years-old = 1 point
British or Irish-bred = 1 point

CHELSEA HARBOUR = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred (bonus point) = 2

SNOWY MORNING = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KNOWHERE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

COMPLY OR DIE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

OLLIE MAGERN = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

STAN = 5
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

BLACK APALACHI = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

HEAR THE ECHO = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

PRIESTS LEAP = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

MY WILL = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

EUROTREK = 5
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

STATE OF PLAY = 6
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

BIG FELLA THANKS = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 1

MON MOME = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

SILVER BIRCH = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

BUTLER’S CABIN = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase =1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

PARSONS LEGACY = 9
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

REVEILLEZ = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

FUNDAMENTALIST = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

GOLDEN FLIGHT = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

L’AMI = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

BATTLECRY = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

CORNISH SETT = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

FLEET STREET = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

MUSICA BELLA = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

CAN’T BUY TIME = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

DARKNESS = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

IRISH INVADER = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

RAMBLING MINSTER = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

SOUTHERN VIC = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KILBEGGAN BLADE = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred =1

BROOKLYN BROWNIE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

HIMALAYAN TRAIL = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

ARTEEA = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

CERIUM = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

IDLE TALK = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KELAMI = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

ZABENZ = 5
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 0

TOP 12 RATED

10 CORNISH SETT
10 FUNDAMENTALIST
10 SOUTHERN VIC
9 SILVER BIRCH
9 BUTLER’S CABIN
9 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
9 PARSONS LEGACY
9 REVEILLEZ
9 BATTLECRY
9 DARKNESS
9 ARTEEA
9 IDLE TALK

And now for something completely different...

2009-03-24T11:17:00.013Z

There are no performance ratings this week as we switch codes to the Flat.

There are four races to kick off the Flat season in the new Racing Trends Revealed Flat 09 book, which hits book stands this week – the Cammidge Trophy, Lincoln, Rosebery and Magnolia Stakes. I may be around later in the week with my ‘trends notes’ for one of those races if I get time.

We then switch back to Aintree for Grand National weekend, before returning to the Flat action over Easter, along with the Craven meeting at Newmarket, which I’m hoping to attend for the second day.

ROSEBERY STAKES – 3.00 Kempton CH4

Grand Passion – Would have to be the oldest winner of this at nine and has too many career outings on the clock.

Cape Express – Misses out on a few trends, including likely SP and lack of experience, but, from the yard that won this last year with Philatelist who also defied the SP stat.

Big Robert – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV.

Robby Bobby – Good trends profile, but last two runs were disappointing and both took place at Kempton – all three career wins were left-handed, compared to right-handed form-figures of 000.

Bazergan – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV.

Whitcombe Minister – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV, and has awkward wide, low draw to overcome – only two of the last 13 winners came from the low section of the draw.

Albaqaa – Excellent trends profile and yard amongst the winners of late. Managed to win first time up in 2008.

Baylini – Had more than 30 career outings and no winner had appeared during the last week.

Swiss Act – Excellent trends profile and yard won it in 2007. Despite inconsistent form figures, record in 1m4f handicaps is 1021. Low draw is the only negative.

Tamini’s History – Decent profile for a rank outsider, but would have to be biggest priced winner of this.

Stand Guard – A four-time Kempton winner, unlike the past 13 victors that had yet to score here.

Opera Prince – Excellent trends profile and yard has been amongst the winners of late. Likely SP would fit snugly between the ideal band of 9/1-16/1.

Greylami – Not the best draw in stall 4 and has already won at Kempton unlike the previous 13 winners.

King Olav – Has a decent trends profile but has already won at Kempton and will have to be a Pattern perfomer to win from the outside stall 1.

Sweet Lightning – Decent enough profile, but has already won here at Kempton.

Brouhaha – Another to have already won here at Kempton.

TRENDS CONCLUSION: The stat involving a prior win at Kempton may be only a coincidence, but until that trend is broken, I will continue to use it to knock out several runners. Cape Express is sure to go well, but with the SP stat favouring those around 9/1 to 16/1, I favour three runners that are likely to be within that band.

Opera Prince – Swiss Act - Albaqaa

TOP OF THE FORM
Although the Top 20 concentrates on recent races, it can always pay to look back at turf races from the backend of last season during the start of the Flat season, a point proven at Kempton last Wednesday when Mafaaz franked the red-hot Tattersalls Million race won by Donatavium from Newmarket in October.
This race featured in the Top 20 in the autumn, but I would strongly recommend anyone who has half an hour free to add some of the horses from this big field to any list to follow.

Here are a couple of races that aren’t in the chart but are worth looking into:

23 February Wolverhampton (AW), Maiden won by Just Timmy Marcus – 3 wins from 13 runs.

3 March Southwell (AW), Handicap won by Grimes Faith – 3 wins from 8 runs.

I’m also going to list all the qualifiers from the Top 20 when they run each day this week up until Sunday.
This exercise is fairly time consuming so I can only do it for one week – let’s hope there are a few winners to make it worth it!
I’ll add the runners onto this blog each day, along with the profit or loss from the previous day, instead of starting a new daily blog.

Sunday 29 March – Top 20 qualifiers

2.00 Doncaster - Bailieborough (from No.10 in the chart)
3.15 Kelso - I´m Delilah (from No.19 in the chart)
3.15 Kelso - Overbranch (from No.19 in the chart)
2.50 Newton Abbot - Cricket Boy (from No.2 in the chart)
2.50 Newton Abbot - Rampant Ronnie (from No.10 in the chart)
4.35 Newton Abbot - Valley Ride (from No.14 in the chart)

The week so far...

Tuesday
Badly Bruised 2nd 15-2

Wednesday
Just Standeese PU 16-1
Brazilian Brush 6th 20-1
Speed Bonnie Boat WON 11-8
Vibe 4th 10-1
Soul Singer 7th 14-1
Wahan 6th 10-1

Thursday
Le Petit Vigier 6th 10-1
Just Five WON 5-1
Bamby 2nd 11-2
The Graig WON 11-1

Friday
Tasheba WON 4-9
Petito 3rd 5-1
Magical Song 3rd 9-1
Rub Of The Relic 10th 10-1
Very Well Red 4th 6-1

Saturday
Valento 6th 10-1
Noble Bily NR

TOTAL +£4.83 profit to levels
(Still holding on to a profit for the week that will be decided on Sunday!)

BUMPER BLOG (UPDATED)

2009-03-18T11:58:00.006Z

First, a big discovery was made on Tuesday that I feel I have to share with you all.

During a visit to the beach with my wife, daughter and mum, we had lunch at one of those traditional fish and chips restaurants. As a creature of habit I’ve always ordered rock eel as I don’t like picking out bones on other fish, but there is now a new kid in town on the Myers’ menu – skate. I would recommend to anyone that likes rock eel, but hasn't tried skate, to give it a go as it is similar with no small bones, a lot larger and is beautiful.

With the important stuff out the way (!), its down to business and the Cheltenham Festival performance ratings.
For those of you that use the ratings as a guide then there is plenty to explore from last week with a view to Aintree and even next year’s Festival from an ante-post perspective. Overall, it was a quality four days with the majority recording above-par ratings, while the placed runners should never be ignored - the hidden jewels that don't enjoy Cheltenham, but prefer Aintree, can often be found here.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE – Go Native 73

ARKLE TROPHY CHASE – Forpadydeplasterer 80

CHAMPION HURDLE – Punjabi 85

TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE – Wichita Lineman 75

BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE – Mikael D’Hagueret 80
(note, two of the five winners of this were successful at next season’s Cheltenham Festival)

RSA CHASE – Cooldine 84
(note, two of the five winners of this were successful at next season’s Cheltenham Festival)

CHAMPION CHASE – Master Minded 91

CORAL CUP – Ninetieth Minute 70

CHAMPION BUMPER – Dunguib 72

WORLD HURDLE – Big Buck’s 90

FREDDIE WILLIAMS (RACING POST) PLATE – Something Wells 71

TRIUMPH HURDLE – Zaynar 74

GOLD CUP – Kauto Star 95

JOHNNY HENDERSON CHASE - Oh Crick 68

COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE – American Trilogy 71

MIDLANDS NATIONAL – Russian Trigger 69

From a punting viewpoint, it was a profitable week in the Myers household, courtesy of Zaynar (11/2), who fitted the trends extremely well, and I hope some of you also punted it following the trends preview I did here.
The previews I did last week were also a good example of how I go about using the information from the book, which may help some of you that have contacted me about how to make a short-list.

Trends don’t work all the time, and some of the previews I did at Glorious Goodwood last year never found a winner, but when they do work the rewards can be big, as proven by Something Wells, who was third on my short-list and scored at 33/1.
I’ve stated here on a few occasions the importance of backing several in a race that may fit the trends if the prices are right instead of just one selection, which can lead to missing out on a winner. There’s nothing wrong with backing four runners in a race at, say, 5/1, 8/1, 12/1 & 25/1. The name of the game is profit.

There were plenty of losers that I backed too, like Ashkazar, who bombed in the Champion Hurdle - something amiss - and I was a bit annoyed in missing out on Punjabi as he was an above-par winner of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle in April 2008 (see page 156 of the book), a race in which five of the six winners have now gone on to win at next year’s Cheltenham Festival - it's always easy after.
Make sure to keep any eye out for the 2009 winner in a months’ time.

Something else I noticed about the Festival, which I’m sure most of you would have also realised over the years, and that is the woeful record of Tony McCoy.
Bar his heroics on Wichita Lineman, he never had another winner, and his record at the last six Festivals reads just 8 wins from 120 rides for a loss of -£83.37 to levels. No doubt this is due to Jonjo O’Neill’s poor record at the same fixture, but it’s worth bearing in mind for next year – may be lay all Mcoy’s rides, which would’ve shown a +£12 profit last week.

On a whingeing note, I was disappointed with the Post’s spotlight for Madison Du Berlais in the Gold Cup, as his form figures at Cheltenham prior to his eighth on Friday were a poor 36735. Cheltenham is clearly not his track, but the spotlight team failed to highlight it – oh dear!

There are no trends races from the book for the next fortnight until Aintree, but the Flat action gets underway, so without wanting to sound like a salesman, make sure to order a copy of Racing Trends Revealed Flat 2009.
I'm unable to attach a link on this site to access samples from the new book, but feel free to leave your email on here, along with a few Flat races of your request, and I can send them so you can see the changes I've incoorporated from the previous book.

TOP OF THE FORM

My troops from the Top 20 performed well at the Festival, wit several winners showing a clear level profit.

I’ve changed things this week as the eyecatchers list was getting time consuming to maintain, plus nominating the right horse from a race isn’t always easy, as American Trilogy proved last week from the Sandown Hurdle that I nominated several others! Instead I will keep a very short-list of horses that I’ve mentioned in the RFO, which are ‘must back’ material next time. Dubai Storming, number four in this week’s Top 20, was given too much to do at Lingfield under Spencer on Saturday but deserves another chance in a stronger run race.

Here are several races currently hovering outside the Top 20:

January 31, Wetherby, Handicap Chase won by Glimmer Of Light -
3 wins from 10 runs

Febraury 15, Leopardstown, Novice Chase won by Cooldine -
3 wins from 6 runs

February 11, Kempton, Handicap won by Princess Cagliari -
3 wins from 6 runs

February 27, Wolverhampton, Claimer won by Quince -
2 wins from 3 runs

February 17, Southwell, Novice Chase won by Best Actor -
3 wins from 6 runs

February 28, Kelso, Handicap Hurdle won by Description -
2 wins from 7 runs

CHELTENHAM FINAL DAY

2009-03-13T10:09:00.002Z

Here are my trends notes for the Triumph Hurdle (CH4 1.30)

Art Sleuth – No winner of this ran in a maiden hurdle last time, although the Mullins yard having a good Festival and won this in 2002.

Ebadiyan – Failed to win at least 50% of his hurdle runs, unlike 10 winners of this this.

Jumbo Rio – Excellent trends profile and won a similar kind of race last time that both Irish winners of this also landed beforehand in 1997 and 2002.

Just Rob – Absent longer than two months and no top two placing last time.

Lethal Weapon – Absent longer than two months but fits other trends, although eight winners of the Juvenile Hurdle he won last time in December lost at Cheltenham – three were placed in the Triumph.

Maidstone Mixture – Doesn’t fit the trends with poor form figures.

Master Of Arts – Only had the lone outing, unlike 10 winners of this that raced two to six times over timber, but fits all the other trends and last year’s winner also arrived via Doncaster.

Mourad – No top three outing last time when held by Jumbo Rio.

Reve De Sivola – Doesn’t fit trends with poor form figures.

Silk Drum – Excellent trends profile, and ability to sit handy a big bonus in this event.

Simarian – No top three outing last time and hasn’t won 50% of career outings over timber.

Starluck – Been absent longer than two months and yard would be the least distinguished to land this. Fits other trends, though, including last time win at Kempton, something shared by four winners of this.

Stow – Decent profile and yard having a good Festival, though was well held by Zaynar in January.

Tharawaat – Hasn’t won 50% of career outings over timber.

Trenchant – Good trends profile but form of previous two runs against Ainama and Torpichen was let down this week.

Tyrrells Wood – Only had the lone outing, unlike 10 winners of this that raced two to six times over timber.

Walkon – Excellent trends profile and won the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle last time over C&D which has thrown up two winners at Cheltenham. Was held by Zaynar in December, but 7lb better today and yard have won this twice in the last four years.

Zaynar – Excellent trends profile, yard won this in 1999 and has been on my Top of the Form list since beating two subsequent winners last time.

Trends top three: Zaynar – Walkon – Jumbo Rio

CHELTENHAM – DAY THREE

2009-03-12T09:42:00.001Z

Here are my trends notes on the Freddie Williams (Racing Post) Plate (4.00 CH4)

Stan – Would have to be the highest rated winner of this off 153.

Pablo Du Charmil – Official rating too high and yet to win beyond 2m2f – 10 winners of this won over 2m3f+

Oslot - Official rating too high and Paul Nicholls yet to strike in this event.

Finger Onthe Pulse - Official rating too high and unseated latest – 10 winners made the top five last time.

Perce Rock – Good trends profile despite 2m3f-2m4f wins the last twice coming over hurdles. Also has a handy fourth in the Cheltenham bumper in 2006 – nine other winners of this also ran at the Festival.

Buck The Legend – Fits most trends other than run more than four times this season. Yard hit back with a winner at Cheltenham on Wednesday.

Three Mirrors – Fits most trends despite only sixth last time. Unplaced three times at Cheltenham is a concern.

Osako D’Airy – Fits most trends despite five outings this term. Lack of Cheltenham experience not ideal and owner claims he must have it heavy.

Pop – Fits most trends despite five outings this term. Lack of Cheltenham experience not ideal.

Silverburn – Pulled up latest not ideal and blinkers tried today. Fourth at the Festival in 2007 a good trend though but yard never won this.

Akilak – Excellent trends profile and knows Cheltenham well. Ideally wants softer ground but has form in good to soft.

Something Wells – Excellent trends profile, though regular jockey this year opts for Stan and Mr W Biddick who rides today is 0-15 here at Cheltenham.

Clarified – Yet to win over chases or over 2m3f+, plus yard not had a winner since December.

Turkish Surprise – Lacks a win over 2m3f+ and over chases.

Or Bleu – Good trends profile though lacks Cheltenham experience.

Oceanos Des Obeaux – Fits most trends though six runs this term not ideal.

Bible Lord – Fourth in this last year and runs off same mark, although been absent for longer than two months.

Notable D’Estruval – No top five outing latest and lacks Cheltenham experience.

Fier Normand – Yet to win in Class 3 or higher and may want faster ground.

Boomshakalaka – Not in the top five last time and unplaced twice at Cheltenham.

Le Burf – Fits most trends but five visits to Cheltenham have resulted in form figures of 00000.

Cossack Dancer – Fits most trends but may want faster ground and unplaced twice at Cheltenham.

Ping Pong Sivola – Seven outings already this season not ideal, and races from out of the handicap, although C&D victory a bonus.

Borora – Has never shown best form here from numerous runs and unseated in this last year.

Trends top three: Perce Rock – Akilak – Something Wells

CHELTENHAM DAY TWO

2009-03-11T09:57:00.001Z

Here are my trends notes on the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2.05 CH4)

China Rock – Just misses out on having raced in the last two months. Had more than five runs and won’t be in the first five of the betting.

Diamond Harry – Excellent trends profile with just the four hurdle outings and winners of the Challow at Newbury in December have a solid record at Cheltenham with four from seven making the frame.

Dorset Square – Doesn’t fit any trends

Junior – Hasn’t won the last twice which is a negative and not likely to be fancied in the betting.

Karabak – Excellent trends profile and only minor negative is the lack of a Graded placing as nine of the last 11 boasted such form.

Knockara Beau – Good trends profile but yard would be the least distinguished to land this and trainer commented that Aintree may suit better.

Mad Max – Age is a big negative, and like Karabak who he beat at Ascot, lacks a Graded placing as nine of the last 11 boasted such form.

Mikael D’Haguenet – Good trends profile but has raced more times than ideal with seven hurdle outings. Won the Barry & Sandra Kelly Novice Hurdle at Navan in December but all four winners of that failed at Cheltenham.

Quartetto – Only won a maiden hurdle 81 days ago and would have to be the biggest priced winner of this.

Quwetwo – Decent trends profile, though two negatives are a lack of Graded form and likely SP outside top five of the betting. Yard won this in 2005 though.

Realt Dubh – Fits the trends in some areas but lacks Graded form and a hurdles victory over 2m4f or further. Likely SP also a negative, but yard won this in 2006, offering outside hope.

Richard The Third – Doesn’t fit the trends with lack of winning form.

The Nightingale – Decent trends profile despite lacking Graded form. Massively unexposed, though front-running tactics last time will be hard to repeat here in a race that favours hold-up types.

Ruthenoise – Misses out from an age perspective and would have to defy long odds.

Trends top three: Diamond Harry – Karabak – Mikael D’Haguenet

Cheltenham, PRs & TOTF

2009-03-10T10:07:00.005Z

Here are my trends notes on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 CH4)

Aachen – non-runner

Ainama – Didn’t win last time but fits other trends and one of the fancied runners

Alarazi – Doesn’t fit any trends

Bee Sting – Doesn’t fit many trends

Copper Bleu – Didn’t win last time and only won 40% of career hurdle runs

Cousin Vinny – Didn’t win last time, but of the last three Bumper winners to come back the following season, two finished second and third so stats suggest a top three slot

Gloucester – Just a poor maiden win last time from 12 outings not ideal

Golan Way – Didn’t win last time and been absent longer than two months. Won the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot in November, but 10 winners of that were unplaced here since 1996

Go Native – Fits most trends other than being exposed with eight hurdle outings as most winners of this had a maximum of four runs. Yard won this in 2000, though, so one of the likelier sorts

Intensifier – No win from five hurdle runs simply not good enough

Kangaroo Court – Lost last time out and lacks a 50% win record and only Back In Front won this dropping back from 2m4f

Kempes – Excellent trends profile, Irish have a good record in this and yard won it in 2007

Leamington Lad – Lost last time out, only 3 hurdle wins from 24 and massively exposed

Leo’s Lucky Star – Been absent too long, lost last time and exposed

Medermit – Fits some trends well, but been absent longer than two months since winning the Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot in December, where two above-par winners triumphed at Cheltenham. Had more than ideal four career runs, but Ascot trend a plus

Michael Flips – Been absent longer than two months but fits most trends and nicely unexposed

Red Moloney – Excellent trends profile and yard won this with Arcalis in 2005. Another massively unexposed and fancied in the market

Shamari – Fits most trends and lively outsider but would have to be the biggest priced winner

Shoreacres – Lost last time and very exposed

Somersby – Decent trends profile but lost last time out and not many of this dropped back from 2m4f

Torpichen – Excellent trends profile, including experience on the Flat like seven other winners of this. Also handles the mud and likely to make top three

Trends top four: Torpichen – Cousin Vinny – Red Moloney - Kempes

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

‘NH’ NOVICES HANDICAP HURDLE FINAL – Big Eared Fran 64

IMPERIAL CUP HURDLE – Dave’s Dream 69

TOP OF THE FORM

Eyecatchers

Aachen
All For The Cause
Bajan Parkes
Berry Baby
Castano
Chief Yeoman
Cold Harbour
Cossack Prince
Dancing Tornado
Dishdasha (AW only)
Dubai Storming
Ermine Sea
Everybody Knows
Fair Point
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
Killfinnan Castle
Mamlook
Mayberry
Mistress Cooper
Oberon Moon
Pedregal
Perange
Respective Way
Serabad
Silver Kate
South O’The Border
Tartak
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Zaynar
Zazamix

10 reasons why I love spring

2009-03-05T18:59:00.006Z

For my wife, October to December rules – Halloween, fireworks, our baby’s birthday, the build-up to Christmas, Christmas itself and then New Year. Not for me though. It’s all about springtime.

March to May are the best months bar none and here are 10 reasons why.

1. Start of the Flat season.
2. Cheltenham Festival.
3. Aintree and the Grand National.
4. World Snooker Championships for two weeks in April.
5. The end of the football season, resulting in big games like the Champions League Final and key play-off matches.
6. Lighter mornings and evenings – plus warmer weather. I hate snow, ice, frost, wind, hail and rain.
7. Easter – chocolate is always welcome in our house.
8. The Guineas meeting at the start of May, followed by Chester and then York – time to spot the sexy three-year-old handicappers that are a stone ahead of their marks.
9. My annual six-week sabbatical from work. On Thursday I played pool for two hours and ate sausage rolls – marvellous.
10. My wedding anniversary (my wife reads this!)

If there was a No.11, then this year it would be that I’m only a few months away from the Ashes series – a betting bonanza and top cricket to lap up.

As for Cheltenham, there’s not much I can add to the mix that isn’t plastered on numerous websites and newspages at present, but it again promises to be one hell of a week.
I only wish I was in better form as the last two weeks have been shockers, including Fong’s Alibi on Wednesday. Results like that shake the bones, so hopefully I can find a few winners before Tuesday.

I’m also hoping to blog daily next week with a trends preview – but then again, if my luck doesn’t change I might keep quiet!

PR & TOTF

2009-03-04T11:11:00.002Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE – New Little Bric 70

TOP OF THE FORM

A second losing week for me on the punting side plus a losing nap in the RFO table, so hopefully things will turn soon, starting with Fong’s Alibi today.

Below are several races that have yet to make the Top 20 – some of them didn’t fit the guidelines, ie, the top-half of the field may have all reappeared since – along with the updated eyecatchers list.

I’ll be back with another blog on Friday

15 January, Ludlow, 3m hcp hdle won by I’m The Decider –
3 wins from 11 runs, Horse to note: Old Peak Road

30 January, Wolverhampton, 6f hcp won by Under Warranty –
3 wins from 11 runs, Horse to Note: Under Warranty

February 14, Lingfield, 5f hcp won by Matsunosuke –
3 wins from 4 runs, Horse to Note: Turn On The Style

February 15, Southwell, 6f claimer won by My Sweet Georgia –
2 wins from 4 runs, Horse to Note: La Capriosa

Eyecatchers

All For The Cause
Bajan Parkes
Berry Baby
Castano
Cold Harbour
Cossack Prince
Dubai Storming
Ermine Sea
Everybody Knows
Fong's Alibi
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
Mayberry
Mistress Cooper
Mr Thriller
Oberon Moon
Pedregal
Perange
Respective Way
Silver Kate
Tartak
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Zaynar
Zazamix

PR & TOTF

2009-02-25T09:14:00.003Z

Not much from me today as I'm pretty shattered - currently coming to
the end of a six-day slog at the Guradian. However, Wednesday is my last day before a six-week sabbatical so I'll be around with more blogging during that period, including Cheltenham material and news on the new Flat book.

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

DOVECOTE NOVICES' HURDLE - Trenchant 61

PENDIL NOVICES' CHASE - Herecomesthetruth 70

RACING POST CHASE - Nacarat 85

ADONIS JUVENILE NOVICES' HURDLE - Hebridean 63

EIDER CHASE - Merigo 68

NATIONAL SPIRIT HURDLE - Lough Derg 77

TOP OF THE FORM

A slight dip in the Top 20 following a warm month, and it was my first losing week punting-wise in February, with the likes of Mr Chocolate Drop and Inka Dancer big losers for me. Both ran fair races, running on from behind, but Betfair don't pay out on such types so I'll turn a blind eye on them in future - cue one of them scoring at 10/1 in the next few weeks! But hey, that's racing.

Here is the updated eyecatchers list:

All For The Cause
Another Brother
Bajan Parkes
Berry Baby
Cold Harbour
Castano
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Ermine Sea
Everybody Knows
Farmer's Lad
Fong's Alibi
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Mr Thriller
Oberon Moon
Parisian Gift
Pedregal
Perange
Piscean
Riguez Dancer
Silver Kate
Steel City Boy
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Zaynar
Zero Cool

Grand National ante-post bet

2009-02-20T12:16:00.004Z

Taken from the book and Guardian website last week, these are the key trends for Aintree in April.

1. The biggest clue during the past 12 years involved the official handicap mark of the horse, which decides the weight it will carry. Since 1997, every winner was rated from 136 to 149, 11 of of whom carried 10st12lb or lighter. The cut-off point in the weights this year comes with last year's winner, Comply Or Die, and the ratings cut-off point is Big Fella Thanks on 149.
2. All 12 winners since 1997 had raced during the previous two months come April — 10 of whom made the top five last time out.
3. All 12 had won over at least three miles, and faced fences a minimum of 10 times.
4. 11 victors were aged eight to 11-years-old.
5. 11 were either winless or had just the single victory in their formline that season.
6. The last 11 were either British or Irish-bred — Lord Gyllene in 1997 was New Zealand-bred.

The horse that fits all the above who is carrying my money at this stage is Parson's Legacy.

Third in the Scottish National in 2007, this 11-year-old had a light time of things since, but showed his well being when landing a quality handicap chase at Cheltenham in October. He had the dual subsequent-winning Joe Lively over 11l back in third that day before being pulled up on a return visit in December when the ground was too muddy - Timeform described it as soft.
Good ground and a marathon trip is what this fellow is all about and he looks sure to enjoy the nature of the event if the ground is decent.
Odds of around 40-1 are available and I wouldn't put anyone off having a nibble before topping up come the hour.

Talking of Parson's Legacy Cheltenham form, my colleague, Chris Cook, went to a lively Cheltenham preview night in London on Thursday night and some interesting quotes can be viewed on his blog at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/feb/20/horseracing-cheltenhamfestival

On a separate note, I thought I'd mention a horse that randomly caught my eye when watching racing at work this week which could pay to keep an eye on - Inka Dancer.

This seven-year-old is no world beater but has dropped to a winning mark and certainly looks ready to rumble after a troubled run on Tuesday at Wolves. He seems to have two ways of running - from the front over 7f, or from behind over 6f when outpaced. He is entered up on Tuesday (7f) and Wednesday (6f) but will hopefully run in the latter over 6f.

Happy punting to all over the weekend, where there are a further six trends races from the book to study, including the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on Sunday.

I won't get to see any of the Kempton action as it's my daughter's christening on Saturday afternoon - still, the meal at the Greek restaurant afterwards will more than compensate!

PR & TOTF

2009-02-18T11:06:00.002Z

Here are the weekend’s performance ratings:

DELOITTE NOVICE HURDLE – Pandorama 70

MORIARTY NOVICE CHASE – Cooldine 76

HENNESSY GOLD CUP – Neptune Collonges 89

REYNOLDSTOWN NOVICES’ CHASE – Carruthers 76

ASCOT CHASE – Voy Por Ustedes 88

RENDLESHAM HURDLE – Kasbah Bliss 85

GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE – Rambling Minster 75

KINGWELL HURDLE – Ashkazar 77

Some seriously impressive ratings recorded, with Kasbah Bliss boasting the highest ever for the Kingwell Hurdle, just a shame he’s so short for the World Hurdle. However, one who is still a nice price is Ashkazar in the Champion Hurdle.

David Pipe’s progressive hurdler recorded a career best on Saturday and enters the equation for Cheltenham as he is one of several that are still open to plenty of improvement and have yet to reach the ceiling of their ability.
The Kingwell has been a serious guide in recent times, and while Ashkazar is still a five-year-old, he may emulate Katchit from Wincanton in 2008, who bucked the age trend at the Festival.

I don’t construct speed figures of any kind, nor do I pretend to be an expert, but it was interesting to note that Ashkazar clocked the best Topspeed Kingwell figure in the last 12 years – the figures below have been taken from the Racing Post website.

2009 Ashkazar - 157
2008 Katchit - 143
2007 Straw Bear – 124
2006 Briareus – 152
2005 Inglis Drever – 122
2004 Rigmarole – 134
2003 Rhinestone Cowboy - 129
2002 Hors La Loi III – 136
2001 Azertyuiop – 131
2000 Hors La Loi III – 96
1999 Grey Shot – 115
1998 I’m Supposin – 129
1997 Dreams End – 129

My gut instinct is that Ashkazar may fall just short in the Champion Hurdle, but with three Kingwell winners following up at Cheltenham and three others making the top three, he rates a decent each-way punt at 16/1.

Also make a note of the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase from page 94 of the book that was abandoned on 7 February but is to be staged this Friday at Sandown – another key future pointer.

Some of you may also be interested in some comprehensive Cheltenham trends work on the Guardian website this week, put together by my colleague, Chris Cook. They cover the big events at the Festival and are well worth a look at http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/feb/17/horseracing-horse-racing-tips

TOP OF THE FORM

An acceptable spell last week with several winners from the Top 20, though Mr Chocolate Drop was disappointing from a nap perspective. I have to admit I never backed it as Adam Kirby was strangely jocked off and it drifted from 6s to 14/1. He stayed on quite well, though, in a slow-run race and is still one to be with if Kirby makes the saddle.

Here is the updated list of eyecatchers:

All For The Cause
Another Brother
Berry Baby
Castano
Decider
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Everybody Knows
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Mr Thriller
Oberon Moon
Parisian Gift
Pedregal
Perange
Piscean
Riguez Dancer
Silver Kate
Steel City Boy
Takeover Bid
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Toy Gun
Zaynar

I'll be blogging again later in the week with a Grand National fancy that is already getting the Myers' household excited!

I’m not a number, I’m a free man!

2009-02-11T10:28:00.003Z

At last, the second edition of the Flat book is finished and I’ve finally got some time to myself.
Things have been non-stop for as long as I can remember, including writing three trends books back-to-back, not something I’ll be attempting again. Having said that, I’m pleased with how the next Flat book looks and as I mentioned last week, they’ll be more on that after Cheltenham.

Lightning also struck for a second time on Sunday night when I got caught in the snow driving home from the Guardian and was forced to stay at my sister’s overnight before driving home the next day. I’ve never experienced conditions like it at present, even on Tuesday morning it took me three hours to drive to work through floods, ice, sleet, snow and then sunshine in London!

The weather also took care of some premier fixtures last weekend, but it’s good to see the Leopardstown meeting being transferred to this Sunday – once again the Irish authorities showing the Brits how it’s done. The races from pages 95, 96 & 97 will hopefully go ahead on Sunday.

It was a busy day on the racing desk on Tuesday when the Grand National weights were published and I did a brief trends piece on the Guardian’s site for anyone interested -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/feb/10/horseracing?commentpage=1

I’m due for my six-week break at the Guardian at the end of February so along with finishing the Flat book, I’m very much looking forward to recharging my battery following a hectic year and spending some time with my wife and daughter. Be handy being at home too, as I can appreciate Cheltenham week on TV instead of working on the racing desk, which I’ve done for the last three years - hopefully they'll be more blogs throughout March.

I’ll also have a chance to watch some DVDs that have been sitting on the shelf from the past two Christmas's! Apologies if it sounds like I’m whinging but this week feels like I’ve finally got to the end of a long marathon – roll on the end of Feb.

So, just the one performance rating to report from the weekend, but a quality one at that – interesting to not that connections of Madison Du Berlais are eyeing the Racing Post Chase, a race Farmer Jack took following this race.

Levy Board (Aon) Chase – Madison Du Berlais 89

Moving onto Top Of The Form, and at the risk of repeating myself, it was another good week for the Top 20. I like to tell things as they are, and I’ve said in the past when the chart was having a quiet time, but it’s been a good spell over the last few weeks so I hope some of you are making a few sovereigns – I even had a winning nap in the RFO table!

This week’s nap, Mr Chocolate Drop, runs on Friday at Lingfield with his regular partner, Adam Kirby, back in the saddle. He's never raced at Lingfield but his come-from-behind style should be suited to the track.

Here is the updated list of eyecatchers:

All For The Cause
Another Brother
Berry Baby
Castano
Decider
Dishdasha
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Everybody Knows
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Millie’s Rock
Mr Chocolate Drop
Oberon Moon
Parisian Gift
Perange
Piscean
Ridgeway Jazz
Shaded Edge
Silver Kate
Takeover Bid
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Toy Gun

HOW’S THAT WEATHER?!

2009-02-03T10:19:00.003Z

The snow is not a friend of mine at present having got stuck in it on Sunday night.
The journey back from work at the Guardian, King’s Cross, took four hours that evening when it usually only takes two hours – and that was at the end of a six-day week so my eyes were struggling. Without doubt the scariest conditions I’ve driven in and I lost control of the car a few times on virgin snow as it was settling. I even stopped at a Travel Lodge halfway to stay the night, but then decided to get back on the road as it was predicted to get worse and I had to get home. And then to follow up there was no racing on Monday…doh!

I see this weekend’s racing is already 50-50 according to the Post which is a great shame as there are eight races in the book – fingers crossed.

At least there was some racing last Saturday before the cold front swept in and here are the performance ratings below to add to the current jumps trends book:

Sandown Handicap Hurdle – Chief Yeoman 69

Challengers’ Novices’ Chase – Herecomesthetruth 73

Tote Handicap Chase – Can’t Buy Time 69

Towton Novices’ Chase – Kornati Kid 73

A quick mention about the next Flat book which I was contacted about last week, I’ve added a further 15 races making a total of 229 and also changed the style of the Winner’s Profile section, making it clearer to follow. I’ve also had time – just – to ‘beef up’ some of the trends stats. They’ll be more info regarding the book post-Cheltenham as most punters mindset currently is understandably in jumps mode. It’s weird for me producing these books as I’m writing in the opposite season to the one we are currently in – try studying the Ebor in mid-January!
Below is the old style from the book compared to the new one – out in mid-March – where I’ve used the early season Cammidge Trophy from Doncaster as an example.

WINNER’S PROFILE Only Les Arcs came here with a prep run as the majority arrived fresh. Four picked up where they left off having last run in a similar event at Doncaster, the Wentworth Stakes - run at Windsor in 2006. Five to seven-year-olds won eight of the last 10 renewals, with just one three-year-old succeeding from nine runners – the other eight were all unplaced.
Trainers Richard Hannon and Barry Hills have both won it twice.

WINNER’S PROFILE
 12 winners arrived having been off the track for three months or longer – only Les Arcs had a recent run. Four picked up where they left off having raced in the Wentworth Stakes at Doncaster – run at Windsor in 2006.
 12 experienced Pattern company – 11 faced Listed rivals where eight made the top three.
 12 were British or Irish-bred – Les Arcs was American.
 12 were four to seven-year-olds – just one three-year-old scored from nine runners – eight were unplaced.
 11 had 11 or more career outings with only two unexposed winners racing less.
 10 scored over 6f – three exceptions were placed.
 7 of the 8 to have experienced Town Moor made the top four, where four scored.
 5 of the last 7 took either a class 2 handicap or Listed race worth at least 14k, compared to 1996-2001 when four winners arrived having won a Group race – two of the overall exceptions took a juvenile novice event.
Trainers Richard Hannon and Barry Hills both won it twice.

TOP OF THE FORM

Yet another non-runner for me in the RFO naps table – I think my chance of making a winning debut is decreasing by the week, so I’ll have to go for some big prices until April.

There were plenty of winners from last week’s chart so I hope some of you made a few quid. It was nice to see Street Power strengthen his Kempton victory where plenty of winners emerged from the top six, and I’m definitely going to give Mr Chocolate Drop another chance as the form of his second in that event is strong for that level of racing. He flopped last time but was without his usual partner Adam Kirby, so the return of him in the saddle back at Kempton where he goes well would be ideal.

Another race worth studying that hasn’t made the chart yet is a 1m4f handicap from Lingfield on 17 January won by Sunset Boulevard –
3 wins from 7 runs.

Here are the updated eyecatchers:

Another Brother
Berry Baby
Castano
Decider
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Everybody Knows
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Mistress Cooper
Moorlands Teri
Mr Chocolate Drop
Oberon Moon
Parisian Gift
Perange
Piscean
Royal Envoy
Shaded Edge
Silver Kate
Takeover Bid
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Toy Gun

Top Of The Form update

2009-01-29T10:24:00.003Z

Amazing scenes – I’ve had time to do a second blog this week!

Here are some races that haven’t made the Top 20 as yet, with the top-half of the field having already reappeared in some of them.

6 Dec G Leighs, 5f Maiden won by Desert Strike
4 wins from 10 runs

18 Dec Southwell, 5f Nursrery won by Imaginary Diva
4 wins 13 runs

19 Dec Wolves, 5f H'cap won by Northern Empire
4 wins from 14 runs

27 Dec Chepstow, H’cap Hurdle won by Heathcliff
3 wins from 7 runs

27 Dec Chepstow, Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle
2 wins from 5 runs

9 Jan Wolves, 1m1f Seller won by Ahlawy
3 wins from 12 runs

9 Jan Wolves, 7f Handicap won by Southandwest
2 wins from 5 runs

15 Jan Ludlow, Nov H’cp Chase won by Just Smudge
2 wins from 3 runs

(only subsequent runs in the same code are taken into account)

ps. Has anyone been missing Great Leighs?

Performance ratings & TOTF

2009-01-27T18:33:00.002Z

Performance ratings

TROPHY CHASE HANDICAP - The Sawyer 66

COTSWOLD CHASE - Joe Lively 84

FINESSE JUVENILE NOVICES' HURDLE - Walkon 70

CLEEVE HURDLE - Cape Tribulation 74

ARKLE CHALLENGE CUP NOVICE CHASE - Golden Silver 71

IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE - Brave Inca 83

A couple of major players emerged in Walkon and Cape Tribualtion, the latter recording a very smart PR, and it is hoped he takes up his place in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Connections state that he needs soft ground, but he has run well on good to soft. I've not backed anything yet for the Festival, but I will be punting Cape Tribulation if he turns up and there is some cut in the ground.

Top Of The Form

No winning nap for me in the RFO last week - not even my next best Mr Chocolate Drop ran well - but there were several winners from the Top 20 including Guildenstern and Plush.
I've cleared out some of the older entries in the list below and added this week's bold runners from the RFO.

Castano
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Everybody Knows
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Mistress Cooper
Moorlands Teri
Perange
Piscean
Royal Envoy
Shaded Edge
Silver Kate
Takeover Bid
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Toy Gun

PR & TOTF

2009-01-20T10:06:00.003Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

LIGHTNING NOVICES’ CHASE – Panjo Bere 74

CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL – Songe 75

PETER MARSH CHASE – Cloudy Lane 81

GRADE 2 NOVICES’ CHASE – Will Be Done 72

ROSSINGTON MAIN NOVICES’ CHASE – Alfie Flats 68

TOP OF THE FORM

Another week and another non-runner in the RFO naps table, which was frustrating as it was a good week for the Top 20 with plenty of winners.

It was a toss up this week between Kack Handed and Mr Chocolate Drop, but opted for the former as it should be a good price. He's shaped as though a step up from 2m will suit and tries 2m3f at Doncaster on Saturday.
Shaded Edge is another I'm looking out for as the form of his second to Marmooq has worked out exceptionally well and he hasn't had much luck since his Lingfield victory - then again, you need a huge slice of luck when hitting the chicane into the straight at Lingfield.

Apologies for a lack of blogging but the countdown is on for the second edition of the Flat book, where I've made plenty of changes and introductions - more on that post-Cheltenham. Hopefully, I'll be free to blog more from mid-February.

TOTF Eyecatchers

Alonso De Guzman, Arctic Freedom
Bavarian Nordic, Brazilian Brush
Cape Colony
Castano
Councellor
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
Guildenstern
Kack Handed
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Majuro
Mistress Cooper
Mr Chocolate Drop
Nicky Nutjob
Pezula Bay
Piscean
Plush
Shaded Edge
Takeover Bid
The King Of Angels

PR & TOTF

2009-01-13T09:32:00.004Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

CHALLOW NOVICES’ HURDLE – Diamond Harry 78

DECEMBER FESTIVAL HURDLE – Sublimity 80

PIERSE HURDLE – Penny’s Bill 60

LEOPARDSTOWN (PIERSE) H'CAP CHASE – Schindlers Hunt 78

The latter event is a puzzler as they changed the distance of the race and gave it a new title. It was also a lot classier than normal with the top weight running off 158 so the shape of the race may be changing long-term.

It’s short and sweet from me today as I’m on deadline to complete the second edition of the Flat book, but I may be back later in the week. Here’s hoping the weather behaves as there are five races from the book to be solved – take note that the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday can be found on page 83 of the book.

TOP OF THE FORM

The following hot form race hasn’t made the Top 20 as the protagonists from the top half of the field have all reappeared, but it’s worth looking into.

Dec 27 Southwell 1m handicap won by United Nations – 6 wins from 16 runs.

Eyecatchers
Alonso De Guzman, Arctic Freedom
Bavarian Nordic, Brazilian Brush
Cape Colony
Castano
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
Kack Handed
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Oracle Des Mottes
Pezula Bay
Piscean
Plush
Shaded Edge
Takeover Bid
The King Of Angels

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

2009-01-06T09:47:00.001Z

Not the greatest start to 2009 with the frost ruling out several jumps fixtures, but on the bright side, the Cheltenham Festival gets underway in two calendar months’ time!

One horse that could be landing honours in March if found a suitable target is Calgary Bay, who looks to be getting the kid gloves treatment from Hen Knight. The Dipper winner was impressive on New Years Day and is one of many winners (and runners-up) from the trends book to look forward to in the coming months.

Talking of Cheltenham, it fascinates me at this time of year how short some of the leading players are in the markets and it is hard to believe at this stage that Binocular (11/8), Master Minded (4/7), Punchestowns (2/1) and Denman (7/4) will all oblige come the hour – just a case of knowing what ones to take on. Master Minded would be the one I’d least want to be against at this stage. What price would Kauto be if Denman has another setback?

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

“DIPPER” NOVICES’ CHASE – Calgary Bay 70

TOP OF THE FORM

It was a bright start to the year for the Top 20 with plenty of winners emerging so long may it continue in the coming weeks – I even managed to get off the mark in the RFO naps table!

It wasn’t an easy choice this week, though, with three horses all nap material – Kia Kaha, Rebel City and Willkandoo. In the end it was Rebel City that got the vote after a flying third over 7f, the trip he again faces on Friday.

It’s also a big year for the RFO who celebrate an anniversary and I’m proud to be able to contribute to a paper that for many years has brightened up a gloomy Tuesday. Nine months of Top of the Form have flown by and I’ve been pleased with how things have gone, especially the feedback from readers.

There were different ways I could’ve produced the chart, but opted for the current format as it gave an opportunity to introduce several new races each week that regularly knock on the door. In order to do this, I had to drop certain races in which the top half of the field have all reappeared or are either two months to create the room, which isn’t ideal if they are still working out well, but once they have been highlighted to readers then it is optional whether to carry on following the protagonists from that event.

Such an example is Ivory Silk’s race from Great Leighs in November where the top five have now all run since with Ivory Silk and Silvanus appearing recently. This event may well remain hot but I have omitted it so that other events can enter the chart while they are churning out the winners and before they become stale.

Please get in touch if you’d like to see something introduced or ways of improving the format – apart from the weekly entries which is an ongoing battle! I’ve managed to do them for the eyecatchers this week as below (older runners from October have been omitted):

Alonso De Guzman, Arctic Freedom
Bavarian Nordic, Brazilian Brush
Castano
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports
Golden Pool
Kack Handed (fri, sat)
Kia Kaha (thu, fri, sun)
L’Homme De Nuit
Leceile
Oracle Des Mottes
Persian Peril (sat)
Pezula Bay
Piscean
Rebel City (fri)
The King Of Angels
Willkandoo (fri)

Festive ratings

2008-12-30T09:39:00.004Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

FELTHAM NOVICES’ CHASE – Breedsbreeze 73

CHRISTMAS HURDLE – Harchibald 79

KING GEORGE VI CHASE – Kauto Star 95

ROWLAND MEYRICK CHASE – Nozic 77

DURKAN JUVENILE HURDLE – Lethal Weapon 59

DURKAN NOVICE CHASE – Follow The Plan 72

FUTURE CHAMPION FINALE JUVENILE HURDLE – Walkon 66

WELSH NATIONAL CHASE – Notre Pere 79

WAYWARD LAD NOVICES’ CHASE – Original 70

FUTURE CHAMPION NOVICES’ HURDLE – Hurricane Fly 68

PADDY POWER CHASE – Big Zeb 76

GRADE 1 NOVICE CHASE – Casey Jones 69

LEXUS CHASE – Exotic Dancer 87

Some quality ratings above to wet the appetite for the coming months, with plenty managing to break par, while the runners-up from certain contests should also be noted as stated in the book.
Another individual who recorded an above-par performance rating over Christmas was my wife who casually backed three winners from three races at Chepstow on the 27th – my birthday!
Wind Instrument at 9/1 (early prices) – hence our baby – followed by Heathcliff at 13/2 – after Wuthering Heights – and then Notre Pere at 8/1 – something to do with me being a father. Three £5 win singles put her well in contention for the January sales, although I had my ear bitten off by her grandad for not putting them in a £2.50 each-way treble, which would’ve paid well over a grand.
Perhaps next time...then again.

TOP OF THE FORM – eyecatchers list

Alonso De Guzman, Amir Pasha, Arctic Freedom
Bavarian Nordic, Brazilian Brush,
Castano, Compton Classic
Diamond Harry (won Monday)
Dragon Eye
Edgeover
Emirates Sports, Ever Cheerful
Glasker Mill
Hell’s Bay
Kack Handed
Kia Kaha
King’s Forest (won Tuesday)
L’Homme De Nuit
Leading Edge
Leceile
Oracle Des Mottes
Persian Peril
Piscean
Red Somerset (won Monday)
Resounding Glory
Safari Run
The King Of Angels

It's the most wonderful time of the year

2008-12-22T22:03:00.005Z

Not long now until the big one – the King George of course!

Christmas isn’t too bad either – I’m in the sprouts fan-club – and this time of year always reminds me of when I used to break up from work and head to WHSmith for my copy of the Superform Flat annual. This would’ve been during the mid-nineties when I was in my twenties so I quite enjoyed the fact most people my age were holding on to their Christmas bottle of booze from the office on the train, while I was clutching my formbook – felt nice, my little secret book that had all the answers for the following season.
That used to be a ritual of mine every year, sat at home flicking through the previous season’s form with a mince pie and sausage roll for company. After that it was time to read December/January’s bumper edition of Odds On – remember that?
They always used to have a Festive quiz that seemed to take all Christmas holiday to complete. What a superb magazine, with Russell Clarke, Mark Coton, Nick Mordin and Alan Potts all coming up with addictive columns each month – a feat sadly not repeated since. Mark has become a good friend of mine since our days at the Post, and Nick Mordin and Alan Potts are still writing about racing, but I’ve not seen or heard much from the former for a while, although I did note an interview in Smartersig back in January where it stated he was still a pro punter. Anyone know more?

The other ritual I would enjoy each Christmas was studying the Welsh National on my birthday and even found the winner on three consecutive occasions. The trends were the main pointer back then, as they are now, so I’ll be hoping they come good again this time around to provide me with a birthday win – I’ll be 36 by the way, not that you needed to know but I’ll tell people until I hit 40 then shut up!

I’ve not been punting much recently, partly due to picking up this cold/cough that’s currently doing the rounds, although I did have a stab at the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday which got me beat on official ratings. I did look at the Silver Cup on that card too, and noticed one of the few qualifiers was Niche Market, especially as he arrived via Cheltenham. It wasn’t a gimme but I hope some of you found him.

That leads nicely into last week’s performance ratings from Ascot, the most noteworthy being Punchestowns in the Long Walk Hurdle. The last two five-year-olds to land this event were My Way De Solzen and Baracouda.

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

KENNEL GATE NOVICES’ HURDLE – Medermit 71

NOEL NOVICES’ CHASE – Deep Purple 68

THE LADBROKE HURDLE – Sentry Duty 74

SILVER CUP HANDICAP CHASE – Niche Market 70

LONG WALK HURDLE – Punchestowns 88

INTERNATIONAL HURDLE (from Cheltenham) – Binocular 86

TOP OF THE FORM

There were plenty of winners from last week’s Top 20, but unfortunately for my nap in the RFO table it was another second!

Here is the updated list of eyecatchers – Balzaccio in particular standing out on Saturday.

Alonso De Guzman, Amir Pasha, Arctic Freedom
Balzaccio, Bavarian Nordic, Brazilian Brush,
Castano, Compton Classic
Emirates Sports, Ever Cheerful
Glasker Mill
Kack Handed
King’s Forest
L’Homme De Nuit
Leading Edge
Leceile
Oracle Des Mottes
Persian Peril
Piscean
Red Somerset
Resounding Glory
Safari Run
The King Of Angels

Happy Christams to all and good luck finding the Festive winners from the book.

Punting a washout!

2008-12-15T17:37:00.003Z

Obviously a massive shame about Cheltenham being abandoned on Saturday as there were some major trends races to be studied, but hopefully some of them will be rerouted elsewhere and I'll post any updates here. Then again we are talking about the BHA trying to organize something - I can think of an alternative meaning to the abbreviation!

From a selfish punting perspective it was probably a good thing Cheltenham was abandoned as I took a hammering last week – one of my worst for a few months. I even scooped the Placepots at Cheltenham on Friday and Donny on Saturday but still lost money as the small payout didn’t cover the big stake!
Cheltenham was particularly frustrating as I got four favs out the frame and was quietly getting excited checking results whilst out Xmas shopping with the family on Friday only to be deflated when checking the dividend at home.

I also experienced my first losing Saturday for six weeks on the Daily Dust website, and only the cricket brought in any winnings during the last seven days! What could go wrong did on the racing front, with the likes of the Peterborough Chase, Gloucester and Pennek all going pear-shaped.

I’ll only be listing bets on the Daily Dust website until the end of the month as I’m writing the second edition of the Racing Trends Revealed Flat book at present, which means time is again limited. Therefore, I also doubt whether I’ll get enough time to check the Top of the Form eyecatchers’ entries for the week ahead – not that many of them have been delivering of late – but will continue to produce an updated list of them should anyone want to check themselves, as below.

First, here are the Performance Ratings from the book covering the last seven days.

JOHN DURKAN PUNCHESTOWN CHASE – Noland 83

B & S KELLY NOVICE HURDLE – Mikael D’Haguenet 70

Top of the Form - eyecatchers list

After The Show, Alonso De Guzman, Amir Pasha, Arctic Freedom, Arctic Magic
Balzaccio, Bavarian Nordic, Bramalea, Beetuna, Brazilian Brush,
Cast Cada, Compton Classic
Emirates Sports, Ever Cheerful
Game Park, Glasker Mill
Kaloni, King’s Forest
Leading Edge
Mezzanisi
Nikos Extra
Oracle Des Mottes
Persian Peril
Piscean
Punchestowns
Resounding Glory
Roaring Forte
Safari Run
The King Of Angels

Cheltenham

2008-12-12T10:20:00.002Z

Good news that Cheltenham on Friday goes ahead where I’ll be going for the Placepot as soon as I’m cleared from baby duties - currently typing this with Elena in other arm, and they say men can't multi-task!

I’ve been up most of the night with Elena, but at least the cricket was on to keep my eyes open – funny as cricket sends my wife to sleep! I even managed to win a few sovereigns on the England test so I’ve pegged back some of the week’s losses on racing.

I could do with a further pick-up after Thursday’s Peterborough Chase never went my way owing to the age of Monet’s Garden – hope some of you found him on the other trends.

I’ll also be punting a couple in singles at Cheltenham on Friday which can be seen on the Daily Dust website, where I’ve given a briefing – followers of Top of the Form will know why.

There’s plenty in the book this weekend covering Cheltenham, so here’s hoping it’s a corker of a trends weekend.

Happy punting!

Peterborough Chase...is on!

2008-12-11T11:36:00.002Z

Wouldn’t it be good if we had a couple of top-class events like this week to punt on during midweek, with the move to transfer the Peterborough Chase back to Thursday from the weekend doing the trick this year with a competitive field of 10 runners lining up. So let’s get stuck into the trends.

First, it’s interesting to note that the only time a field of this size took to the tape since 1996 was in 2005 when Impek scored at 5/1, the joint-highest SP in that period.

PETERBOROUGH CHASE

ONE COOL COOKIE – Not may Irish-trained runners have landed this and trainer yet to send out a winner in last fortnight. Likes to be up with the pace, which will help, and fits some of the other trends, but likely double-figure SP will be a negative.

SNOOPY LOOPY – Pacey style will help and has a Grade 1 victory in the bag, but bit long in the tooth at 10 for this event and had quit a few runs already this year which may catch up soon – not the ideal prep coming from a third in the Hennessy. First-time blinkers also an unknown.

MISTER MCGOLDRICK – As with Snoopy Loopy not the ideal age for this and all career wins have come left-handed – been unplaced twice here. Likely double-figure SP also not ideal, nor is the form of his stable.

MONET’S GARDEN – Another that has to be bypassed mainly because of age, but fits most of the trends. On a losing run of five – longest in career – and not many winners of this finished as far back as seventh last time out.

NATAL – Not many holes to pick in his trends profile, even having a spin in the Haldon Gold Cup last time which has pointed up three winners. Well held in this last year but improved since and yard has won this before.

MAHOGANY BLAZE – No winner has taken this having appeared within the last week and this looks more an afterthought than a target. Also lacks a prior victory around this trip. Easily ignored with yard struggling.

MONT MISERE – Rank outsider having been running in French claimers and lacks Graded experience – won’t win.

LORD HENRY – No distance victory over chases and no Graded win goes against the trends.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN – Fits all the trends and could be interesting despite uninspiring form figures last season. Can go well fresh, sits up with pace and yard in form.

NACARAT – Official rating of 136 not good enough for this and one of the rank outsiders – lacks a Graded win.

UNGARO – Likes going right-handed but on a long losing run. However, return to this game after hurdling over course and distance may help. Two winners of this were officially rated in the 140s.

SHORT-LIST: Natal, Ungaro, My Way De Solzen.

Midweek trends, PR and TOTF

2008-12-08T21:03:00.003Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

WINTER NOVICES’ HURDLE – Junior 68

HENRY VIII NOVICES’ CHASE – Araldur 77

LISTED HANDICAP HURDLE – Sunnyhillboy 63

TINGLE CREEK CHASE – Master Minded 92

The good thing about racing being abandoned or dates being switched is that it can provide some midweek highlights, such as this week where we are treated to a couple of Graded events.

The John Durkan Punchestown Chase that was due to be run on Sunday (page 43 of the book) has fortunately been rescheduled for Tuesday December 9, where a competitive 10-runner field lines up – the same as last year. The Irish authorities were very quick to rearrange this event – take note the BHA!

Also, the Peterborough Chase on page 30 of the book is to be staged on Thursday December 11, although it will be strange not seeing a Henrietta Knight entry in the race.

I’m currently having a few weeks off from the Guardian – bliss. Considering my commute is a two-hour drive (each-way), Monday morning felt good this week as I enjoyed my coffee while watching the frost melt outside.
If I get the chance on Thursday I’ll have a stab at the Peterborough Chase using the trends, but keep an eye on the Daily Dust website for any other bets.

Some of you may have shirked at me backing odds-on, but my aim is to make a long-term profit to SP during the winter – no easy feat – and I don’t have a problem backing short prices these days unlike when I was younger. So far the odds-on bets have done well with 10 winners from 13 bets, and obviously a high strike-rate needs to be maintained to show a profit at that end of the market.

TOP OF THE FORM

A better week for the Top 20 chart with several winners, although Fast Freddie was disappointing at Wolverhampton. He’ll probably pop up when granted a softer lead.

A couple of races that won’t make the chart that are worth browsing over are as follows:
Nov 16 Fontwell National Handicap Chase – Winner: Hello Bud
Nov 12 Bangor Novices’ Handicap Chase – Winner: Amble Forge
Nov 15 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup – Winner: Imperial Commander
Nov 15 Great Leighs Nursery – Winner: Whatyouwoodwishfor

Here are the eyecatchers from recent weeks along with their five-day entries from Tuesday December 9:

After The Show - Sprint handicap from Kempton a fortnight ago won by Littledodayno has already churned out three winners. After The Show never got a clear run from a wide draw.

Alonso De Guzman – Was sandwiched between two future winners in second at Lingfield.

Arctic Magic – Form of Cheltenham third has worked out.

Balzaccio (Saturday) – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up,

Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Brazilian Brush - Impressed in taking a claimer in a fast time last month. The change of tactics from the front worked that day as he took care of three subsequent winners directly in behind. Two of them have since won handicaps.

Cast Cada - Novices hurdle from Exeter in November won by Inchidaly Rock, who was a creditable runner-up in better class at the weekend, while directly behind were Junior and Giles Cross, who both scored since. The fourth, Cast Cada, was beaten next time when fluffing the final obstacle, but can land a race with stronger steering.

Duke Of Malfi - Three winners have already emerged from Hexham, including Frith and Silvo, who both took better class events, and the winner remains one to stick with having recorded a career best here on just his second chase outing.

Ever Cheerful - Sprint handicap from Kempton a fortnight ago won by Littledodayno has already churned out three winners. Runner-up, Ever Cheerful, hovers on a nice mark and enjoys an extra furlong at Lingfield.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well and was unlucky when hampered next time.

Gloucester (Friday)– Good second in red-hot hurdle from Cheltenham, deserves another chance after being brought down on a return visit to Cheltenham last month.

Kaloni - The second debutant from the Essex venue is a 1m nursery won by Atabaas Allure five weeks ago. Only four runners have reappeared since, resulting in three winners, and the fifth, Kaloni, has middle-distance blood and is one to note up in trip.

King’s Forest - Ran a cracker on just his second outing at Cheltenham, a red-hot event.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Nikos Extra - Form of Cheltenham fourth has worked out.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Pennek (Friday) – Form of Cheltenham fifth has worked out.

Piscean - Great Leighs sprint handicap from late-October won by the progressive Arganil, who has since hacked up in better company. The runner-up, Piscean, did well to get within a neck having been drawn wide and is one to note back at Lingfield where his late run will count, as shown when scoring there last month.

Presentandcorrect (Friday) - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Punchestowns - Impressed in beating subsequent winner, Ballydub, in a classy handicap hurdle at Cheltenham a month ago. Ballydub boosted the form by winning a better event, along with the tenth-placed, Lupanar, and the winner is certainly a hurdler going places,

Resounding Glory - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels (Fri & Sat) – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Wotatomboy - Had two subsequent winners directly behind in a Southwell maiden in late-October. The winner enjoyed the step up to 6f here and is one to note if appearing in a nursery before the end of the year as she will be fairly treated having been rated 61 here with the third-placed, Trigger McCann rated 72.

Weekly PR and TOTF updates

2008-12-02T17:27:00.002Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

WORCESTER NOVICES’ CHASE – Gone To Lunch 68

LONG DISTANCE HURDLE – Duc De Regniere 81

HENNESSY GOLD CUP – Madison Du Berlais 80

HATTON’S GRACE HURDLE – Catch Me 82

ROYAL BOND NOVICE HURDLE – Hurricane Fly 65

DRINMORE NOVICES’ CHASE – Trafford Lad 74

The Hennessy winner was very difficult to find on trends, but a few of the others were manageable, including Trafford Lad in the Drinmore, whose performance was the most impressive of the weekend. This unbeaten chaser is an exciting future prospect.

Some of you will have also noticed that the Fighting Fifth Hurdle has been re-routed to Wetherby this Saturday – December 6. Also make a note of the Peterborough Chase from page 30 in the book that is now scheduled for December 11.

Thanks to Bizz0 for his congratulations in today’s RFO. Both Mother and baby Elena are doing well – Elena has already viewed her first Morning Line, though she did pull a face when Thommo was on; probably not the last.

TOP OF THE FORM

A better week for Top Of The Form with the Cheltenham maiden hurdle running hot – here are this week’s five-day entries from Wed Dec 3.

Alonso De Guzman – Was sandwiched between two future winners in second at Lingfield.

Balzaccio – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up,

Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Brazilian Brush - Impressed in taking a claimer in a fast time last month. The change of tactics from the front worked that day as he took care of three subsequent winners directly in behind. Two of them have since won handicaps.

Fast Freddie (Friday) – Ran a cracker in third at Great Leighs when up with a strong pace and can strike granted a softer lead.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well and was unlucky when hampered next time.

Gloucester (Wednesday, Thursday) – Good second in red-hot hurdle from Cheltenham, deserves another chance after being brought down on a return visit to Cheltenham last month.

Kaloni - The second debutant from the Essex venue is a 1m nursery won by Atabaas Allure five weeks ago. Only four runners have reappeared since, resulting in three winners, and the fifth, Kaloni, has middle-distance blood and is one to note up in trip.

King’s Forest - Ran a cracker on just his second outing at Cheltenham, a red-hot event.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Piscean - Great Leighs sprint handicap from late-October won by the progressive Arganil, who has since hacked up in better company. The runner-up, Piscean, did well to get within a neck having been drawn wide and is one to note back at Lingfield where his late run will count, as shown when scoring there last month.

Presentandcorrect (Saturday) - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Resounding Glory - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.

Sarah’s Art (Sunday) – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Wotatomboy - Had two subsequent winners directly behind in a Southwell maiden in late-October. The winner enjoyed the step up to 6f here and is one to note if appearing in a nursery before the end of the year as she will be fairly treated having been rated 61 here with the third-placed, Trigger McCann rated 72.

Friday update

2008-11-27T21:08:00.001Z

There’s plenty of action to get stuck into at the weekend with six races from the book to analyse, including three major events from Fairyhouse on Sunday that could have a big impact on the Cheltenham Festival.

A brief mention about a couple of races that won’t be entered in the Top of the Form chart but some of you may want to check them out.
The first is an apprentice handicap over 7f from Doncaster’s final fixture in November, in which three subsequent winners have emerged on the all-weather – Smarty Socks, Internationaldebut and River Thames. I won’t be placing turf races in the Top 20 until next season, but there may be a few more winners to emerge from this race during the winter on the all-weather.

The second race is a 1m handicap from Southwell on October 19 won by Dan Chillingworth. This race may yet appear in the Top 20 when its rating rises, but four winners have subsequently obliged, including Kimono My House, Spinning, Elusive Warrior and Direct Debit.

Good luck to everyone having a punt at the weekend, any fancies of mine will appear on the Daily Dust website.

Tuesday update - PRs and TOTF

2008-11-25T09:44:00.004Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

NOVEMBER HANDICAP – Tropical Strait 66

AMLIN HANDICAP CHASE – My Petra 75

ASCOT HURDLE – Chomba Womba 75

I hope some of you found Chomba Womba in the Ascot Hurdle - via the book - who fitted the trends well.
I managed to back it after tipping her on the Daily Dust site, where some of my fancies can be found for those of you interested.

A competition to win five copies of my book is also up and running on the guardian website all this week, for those of you without a copy yet.

See http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/horseracing (talking horses) for further details.

TOP OF THE FORM

A disappointing week for Top Of The Form - here are this week’s entries:

Apocal (Friday, Saturday) – Fourth at Bangor worked out well and could improve over 2m4f or further.

Art Trend (Friday) – Third at Wincanton, Art Trend is worth following on those formlines after an unlucky landing next time when unseating.

Artzola – Two winners have emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Balzaccio – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up, Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Brazilian Brush (Friday) - Impressed in taking a claimer in a fast time last month. The change of tactics from the front worked that day as he took care of three subsequent winners directly in behind. Two of them have since won handicaps.

Cockney Trucker (Saturday) - Third at Cheltenham, Cockney Trucker was fancied that day but was unfortunate to find himself in such warm company. Philip Hobbs’ lightly raced sort is one to follow,

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well and was unlucky when hampered next time.

Imperial Skylight (Saturday) – Poorly drawn at Kempton where Rainbow Seeker scored since and was a good third drawn wide at Wolves. Can win soon.

Kaloni - The second debutant from the Essex venue is a 1m nursery won by Atabaas Allure five weeks ago. Only four runners have reappeared since, resulting in three winners, and the fifth, Kaloni, has middle-distance blood and is one to note up in trip.

King’s Forest - Ran a cracker on just his second outing at Cheltenham, a red-hot event.

Lend A Grand (Sunday) – 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fifth was the well-handicapped Lend A Grand, who did some good late work.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Piscean - Great Leighs sprint handicap from late-October won by the progressive Arganil, who has since hacked up in better company. The runner-up, Piscean, did well to get within a neck having been drawn wide and is one to note back at Lingfield where his late run will count, as shown when scoring there last month.

Presentandcorrect (Saturday) - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Resounding Glory - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.

Sarah’s Art – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Jumps - One to follow

2008-11-22T09:52:00.005Z

I was going to list five horses to follow during the jumps season but have opted instead for quality over quantity, plus there are plenty of horses being thrown about everyday to follow so sticking with just the one may prove easier.

The horse in question, who I mentioned way back in the spring, is the four-year-old, Light Yield.

Trained by Lucy Wadham, which should help its price throughout the season being from a small yard, this progressive hurdler signed off for last season with a superb second in an open handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in April. The form of that event has real strength in depth and featured in the Top Of The Form chart, while the likes of the third, King's Revenge, was a cracking third in the Greatwood Hurdle last week.

Already a winner over two and a quarter miles, Light Yield ran on strongly that day at Cheltenham and will definitely improve back over further.

He is very well treated and is one to side with in handicaps throughout the season.

I mentioned a few weeks back that the Guardian may be running a competition to win copies of the jumps book - for anyone yet to purchase it - which should be running on the website from Monday (Nov 24).

I'll be back early next week with updates, in the meantime my daily fancies can be viewed on the Daily Dust website.

Performance ratings, Top Of The Form & Flat review

2008-11-18T19:09:00.003Z

With another Flat season completed, here are some of my highs and lows:

Highs

Getting off to a good start with the trends from the book working out especially well during the spring at meetings like the Craven.

Henrythenavigator taking the 2,000 Guineas, which put a big grin on my wife’s face at Newmarket after backing him at 10/1.

All The Good being a good example to the method of the book, in that he was an above-par winner of the re-routed Ebor – a race that has a four star rating – before scoring at big odds subsequently

The method of following certain placed runners from the four and five star events also worked out well in races like the Irish 2,000 Guineas, where New Approach took the Derby next time out at 5/1.

Against The Grain landing a touch for me in the Ayr Silver Cup – a race that has already been added to the second edition of the Flat book for 2009.

Making a breakthrough with my betting on cricket – a nice sideline away from racing.

The birth of Top Of The Form in the Racing and Football Outlook. I have plans for that column so watch that space.

My wife finally giving birth – OK it wasn’t the Flat season but the due date was!

Kind comments being left here from genuine horseracing fans, so thank you to the following who have supported the book:

Andrew, Julio, Kevo, Lemondash, Mike, Norman, Peter, Stegboy, Steve, Tom, Tony, Truebastion – apologies if I’ve missed anyone.

Lows

A mid-season lull in the book with trends at the Newmarket July meeting and Goodwood not working out too well. I was also in rotten form at the time and failed to hit the target from short-lists of three runners per race.

My ante-post record wasn’t great, but as with this type of betting, I was only a place away from showing a profit. Tajaaweed, Katiyra, Moonstone, Orpsie Boy, Prince Kalamoun and Mad Rush all the guilty suspects. I thought the latter pair were nailed on to be in the frame but weren’t even placed.

Orpsie Boy gets special attention! Some of you may snigger when I say this, but he never faced ideal conditions all season, namely a big field on fast ground – may be next year if his AW mark doesn’t ruin his turf one.

Biting off more than I could chew from a workload perspective – lesson learnt! After writing the second version of the Flat in January 2009, I finally get three months off!

It may sound corny, but I enjoy producing the book for those reading it, as much as I do for personal enjoyment or punting, and I really hope some of you made a profit from the races in the Flat book.

As you'll know by now, trends don’t work all the time – I wish they did – but are very rewarding when they do. The key is how they are interpreted. The perfect horse that fits every trend rarely emerges, so it’s a case of sticking with the trends you feel are strongest.
My personal method is to produce a short-list of runners that fit the majority of the trends and may be back three or four in the same race for a profit rather than siding with just one.

I’ve mentioned previously that the Racing Trends Revealed project is a long-term one, and one that will see both the book and website improve over the next three of four years – Rome wasn’t built in a day! Introductions such as the winner’s formline (112-23 etc), official rating and running style (already in the jumps book), and other categories like the winner’s official winning time, will all be added in time.

I’m very hopeful the size of the book will also increase in size for the second jumps version, so that I don’t have to cram all the information on one page, allowing the text to be bigger, which is a tad small in the current jumps version.

PERFORMANCE RATINGS for the past week:

Sharp Novices’ Hurdle – Golan Way 66

Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle – Simarian 59

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase – Imperial Commander 81

Trophy Handicap Chase – Joe Lively 74

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle – Numide 67

November Novices’ Chase – Tatenen 74

Maplewood Hurdle – Hardy Eustace 77

There were some noteworthy performances at Cheltenham with Tatenen in particular impressing as a four-year-old in the November Novices’ Chase. The last winner from that age group went on to take the Henry VIII next time out, before a second in the Arkle.

A note regarding the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon that was due to be run this Saturday but is now to be staged on December 11 – that damn fixture list!

Another item of interest I stumpled across worth a mention are the replays on the Channel 4 website. From what I saw at the weekend, you can download a large selection of races from the previous seven days via the Racing Post website without paying, although that may soon change when the RP start charging a monthly rate - so make the most of it!

TOP OF THE FORM

Here the recent eyecatchers along with their entries from Wed Nov 19:

Apocal – Fourth at Bangor worked out well and could improve over 2m4f or further.

Art Trend (Saturday) – Third at Wincanton, Art Trend is worth following on those formlines after an unlucky landing next time when unseating.

Artzola – Two winners have emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Balzaccio – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea (Friday) - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton three weeks ago in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up, Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Elton (Friday) – Handicap hurdle from Wincanton a fortnight ago won by Bally Conn, who has since scored along with the runner-up, Charles Street. Ten lengths back in third was Elton, who recorded a career best and is still lightly raced enough to improve.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill (Saturday) – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Imperial Skylight (Saturday) – Poorly drawn at Kempton where Rainbow Seeker scored since and was a good third drawn wide on Monday. Can win soon.

Lend A Grand – 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fifth was the well-handicapped Lend A Grand, who did some good late work.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Notre Cyborg (Saturday) - Handicap Chase from Bangor-On-Dee where Laoch Dubh beat Notre Cyborg. The winner has since landed a better class event, while the third, Araldur, also took a similar race. Although the second, Notre Cyborg, lost next time out, he was outclassed and deserves another chance.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Presentandcorrect - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Resounding Glory (Saturday) - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.

Sarah’s Art (Wednesday & Thursday) – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

NEXT BLOG WILL APPEAR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON

2008-11-13T09:25:00.007Z

Born on Wednesday November 12 at 10.06pm, with Billy Joel's "Uptown Girl" playing in the background - hope that's not a sign of things to come.

Anyway, she weighed 7-12, and not the 7st 12lb I emailed to my friend at 2.00am this morning - there's always hope, watch out Hayley!

(Check the Daily Dust for Saturday update)

I'm a baby...get me out of here!!!!

2008-11-10T17:51:00.005Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

HALDON GOLD CUP – Ashley Brook 80

ELITE HURDLE – Chomba Womba 76

It was a shame Ashley Brook won at Exeter – apologies to his fans – from a future angle as I was hoping for a progressive winner. Those that won this event from such a low weight failed to kick on.

As for the Elite Hurdle on Saturday, I was hoping Takeroc would triumph based on the breeding stat but he just came up short, while Breedsbreeze was impressive and is a horse I backed for Cheltenham last season following his Tolworth Victory. He failed there, but past winners of the Tolworth have made decent chasers, including Noland.

(note - a small error in the book regarding the Paddy Power Gold Cup this week, as it should read 'All bar one came from INSIDE an official ratings band of 136 to 150', rather than 'outside' in the Winner's Profile section).

Talking of the book, anyone who has yet to purchase a copy may get the opportunity to win one in a competition on the Guardian Unlimited website at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport
I can’t confirm that the competition is a definite yet, but keep your eyes peeled.

I’ve also been putting a few winners up on the Daily Dust website for anyone who’s not been around during the past few weeks – I almost landed a 30-1 treble on Monday!

Having said that, I will only be doing limited tips this week as I’ll be at the hospital from Tuesday for three days where my wife is being induced.
She will be 11 days past the due date, so the nerves are jangling, especially as I haven’t a clue what to expect. If it were Chester…low draw; Newbury…Henderson and Fitzgerald; Brighton…Seb Sanders. That’s how the Myers mind works, so I’ll be improvising this week – plenty of Timeform in my bag, though, in case of the long haul!

Can’t say when I’ll be back blogging, possibly tomorrow night if I get kicked out of the hospital late, so stay tuned for any further news – on and off the track!

TOP OF THE FORM

After a patient wait for the jumps and AW races to percolate, things are hotting up in the Top 20 and the base rating climbs to +2. Keep an eye on this rating, for when it hit +4 in the summer for a while, it was a hot Top 20 with buckets of winners. I think the record rating for the number one race is around +12/+13, when Shifting Star’s Goodwood race worked out exceptionally well.

I’ve been invited to enter the Racing and Football Outlook’s naps table for the winter season, so my main fancy of the week will appear there…Sam’s Cross this week, who’ll need the breaks at ‘leave it late’ Lingfield.
Here is the recent eyecatchers list with their five-day entries from Tue Nov 11.

Apocal – Fourth at Bangor worked out well and could improve over 2m4f or further.

Art Trend (Wednesday) – Third at Wincanton, Art Trend is worth following on those formlines after an unlucky landing next time when unseating.

Artzola – Two winners have emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Balzaccio – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton three weeks ago in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up, Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Elton – Handicap hurdle from Wincanton a fortnight ago won by Bally Conn, who has since scored along with the runner-up, Charles Street. Ten lengths back in third was Elton, who recorded a career best and is still lightly raced enough to improve.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Lend A Grand – 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fifth was the well-handicapped Lend A Grand, who did some good late work.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Notre Cyborg - Handicap Chase from Bangor-On-Dee where Laoch Dubh beat Notre Cyborg. The winner has since landed a better class event, while the third, Araldur, also took a similar race. Although the second, Notre Cyborg, lost next time out, he was outclassed and deserves another chance.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Presentandcorrect - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Resounding Glory (Saturday) - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could could own in Graded company.

Sam’s Cross (Thursday) - 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fourth was the well-handicapped Sam’s Cross, who did some good late work.

Sarah’s Art – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

Change

2008-11-07T23:19:00.006Z

I’m a fan of change. I never used to be.

It’s been a week of change.

Lewis Hamilton became the first mixed-race Grand Prix world champion, followed by Barack Obama being elected the first mixed-race President of America. Had the former not been dealt a stroke of luck on the final lap, it would’ve been different. But the angels were on his side, as they were with the latter. The timing was right, it was meant to be. A new wind of 'change' blew in.

That twist of fate which enabled Hamilton to fulfil his destiny was a fantastic moment. It reminded me of when Goran Ivanisevic won Wimbledon, it meant everything to him and he too fulfilled his dream. The rain that arrived during his semi-final with Tim Henman which helped turn the tide in his favour was possibly a gift from the gods.
Another great moment that ‘changed’ his life.

Great moments surround us all the time. There will be one in my life soon when I ‘change’ into a father.

There have been many other great moments in my betting and racing life – further passages of change. Betting has taught me a lot and will continue to do so, as the current Flat season ‘changes’ into the jumps season. Further great moments await in my betting and racing life – I’m open and ready for them.

The chances one of those moments occuring this weekend are small, not my time. I will be writing the second edition of the Flat book for 2009 on Saturday with the aim of completion prior to Christmas so I can spend some time with our unborn baby - my wife is now a week over. There will be some new introductions to the second edition, including bigger text which I confess is too small in the current jumps book – more ‘change’.

I don’t know if I’ll be betting on Saturday, but those horses which caught my eye when compiling ratings on the Guardian racing desk during Friday can be seen on the Daily Dust website.

Enjoy your weekend, and as the late-comedian Dave Allen used to say ‘may your (gambling) god go with you’.

Ratings & TOTF...but no baby!

2008-11-04T22:27:00.008Z

Don't worry I have no intention of turning this into 'Facespace' or whatever it's called, but my wife - who reads this - has a touch of carpel tunnel in her hands and is four days overdue with our first child. I thought a pic on here of us on honeymoon in Vegas last year may work the oracle.
(By the way, the tans quickly disappeared, along with the whitening of the teeth!)

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

PERSIAN WAR NOVICES’ HURDLE – Hell’s Bay 70

JAMES NICHOLSON CHAMPION CHASE – Kauto Star 83

CHARLIE HALL CHASE – State Of Play 82

WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE – Pettifour 80

The trends have worked out OK in the jumps book so far, although Ashley Brook was a shocker in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on Tuesday.

Another shocker was the Melbourne Cup result with Mad Rush appearing not stay.
Kind of sums up my ante-post Flat season, though, being on progressive horses at the right prices but none delivering. I wouldn’t have believed both Prince Kalamoun and Mad Rush could finish out the frame in the Cambridgeshire and Melbourne Cup respectively.

At least I’ve been backing some winners in between and Virtual on Saturday landed a nice touch. I mentioned here last week that I’ve been doing some tipping for a new website called the Daily Dust. There aren’t tips every day, only when I get time, so feel free to check at: http://www.thedailydust.co.uk/

TOP OF THE FORM

Lots of AW entries at present as the jumps form takes time to warm up – almost every jumps winner at the moment last ran in either March or April.

Here are the five-day entries from Wednesday Nov 5 onwards.

Artzola – Two winners have emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Lend A Grand (Saturday) – 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fifth was the well-handicapped Lend A Grand, who did some good late work.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Presentandcorrect - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Sam’s Cross - 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fourth was the well-handicapped Sam’s Cross, who did some good late work.

Sarah’s Art – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

Weekend update

2008-10-31T21:48:00.001Z

Unfortunately, I’ve not had much chance to preview the weekend’s races from the book owing to my work schedule, but I’ve been invited to do some tipping for The Daily Dust website and my Saturday fancies will appear on there at:

http://www.thedailydust.co.uk/

I notice the Racing Post online have got an exclusive preview section of their new website that can be browsed. It’s worth a look before deciding whether paying per month for the service - according to rumours.

Hopefully I’ll get some time in the next week – if my wife hasn’t given birth (was due on Friday) – to do a review of the Flat season and how it went for me.
I’ll also be listing five horses I’m hoping will be making me a few quid over the sticks this winter – you’ll be glad to hear Orpsie Boy isn’t one of them!

There are three races in the new jumps book to use on Saturday - good luck with the punting over the weekend.

Dying embers of the Flat

2008-10-28T12:57:00.004Z

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

RACING POST TROPHY – Crowded House 82

HORRIS HILL STAKES – Evasive 69

ST SIMON STAKES – Buccellati 75

Along with the majority, I was impressed with Crowded House’s performance on Saturday, who earns himself a top-notch performance rating having stopped the clock with an impressive turn of foot. This event gets top marks in the book so Crowded House is definitely a horse to go to war with next year, although the jury is out as to whether he has too much speed for the Derby…you decide!

Hope some of you took a price about Mad Rush for the Melbourne Cup when advised here at 12-1. Having said that, my ante-post record this year is one of getting the right price but the horse not delivering – such as Prince Kalamoun – although Moonstone nearly come up trumps in the Oaks at 50-1.

As for Orpsie Boy, I ended up having a few buttons on him at Doncaster with Betfair even though the ground wasn’t fast enough. The phrase ‘follow him over a cliff’ does spring to mind, but hopefully I can nail him on the turf next year on fast ground.

Still no baby yet, spiced food will be used as a last resort on Wednesday evening in order to avoid the poor child arriving on Oct 31!

TOP OF THE FORM

A few winners emerged out of the chart last week with Rutba from the number one race at Yarmouth (omitted now) scoring again.
I’ve decided to have a clearout amongst the old entries, including turf Flat runners, and concentrate on the jumps and all-weather. Some of those below are runners from the past few months that have yet to reappear, although there are no engagements for this week having checked the five-day entries.

Artzola – Two winners have already emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot three weeks ago has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Presentandcorrect - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Short and sweet from me today, but I'll be previewing one of the weekend jumps races from the book later in the week.

Oh-oh, Orpsie's about!

2008-10-23T17:25:00.004Z

Not much to report from me as I count down the days/hours to my wife going into labour.

We are both growing impatient for the sprog to appear, so I'd thought we'd go and see the latest instalment of Saw at the cinema on Saturday. This is a horror film for those wondering, not that I'm especially into that kind of thing, but my friend in America pointed me towards the first instalment and I need to see how it ends!
Hopefully the ending may shock my wife into labour - that's the theory anyway!

As for Orpsie Boy, he would've had a major chance at Doncaster today with fast ground, but I'm not sure of the exact going with overnight rain. He'll enjoy going back up to 6f in a big field after flying late over 5f against Listed rivals last time, and should be a decent price.
My approach will be to check the race times throughout Friday to gauge the state of the ground and will back him if it's good or faster. I won't be backing him on good to soft or worse though.

The Breeders' Cup will be worth viewing on Saturday evening, and hopefully the trends for that meeting will be in the 2010 third Flat edition when I include International events.
I've mentioned before that the Racing Trends Revealed project is a long-term one, with improvements and introductions to come in both the Flat and jumps book, along with the website. More on that in the months to come, in the meantime I hope the remaining four races in the current Flat book find a few winners before the switch to the National Hunt season.

I'll be back early next week with updates and possible baby news if the film has its desired effect!

Performance ratings & TOTF

2008-10-20T17:06:00.002Z

Performance ratings

PRIDE STAKES – Crystal Capella 65

DARLEY STAKES – Charlie Farnsbarns 77

CHALLENGE STAKES – Stimulation 78

DEWHURST STAKES – Intense Focus 80

CHAMPION STAKES – New Approach 90

CESAREWITCH – Caracciola 67

ROCKFEL STAKES – Lahaleeb 70

JOCKEY CLUB CUP – Veracity 75

There were some interesting performances at the Champions Day fixture, including New Approach’s demolition job in the Champion Stakes. Just a shame we won’t get to see him in action as a four-year-old with a career at stud proving too tempting.
I was hoping for a more unexposed winner of the Rockfel Stakes, as it has been such a terrific pointer for the Classics, and though Lahaleeb was awarded a marginal above-par rating, she looked a touch exposed beforehand and the bookies don’t seem impressed.
Intense Focus also had the profile of one that looked exposed in the Dewhurst but it’s interesting to note this colt’s form-figures on fast ground (121), compared to that on good or softer (000030). Fast ground could make him value if lining up for next year’s Guineas should he flop on easier ground in the spring.

I hope some of you have made use of the performance ratings throughout the Flat season, along with following the placed runners from events in the book that are awarded three, four or five stars. Taking a moment to review the big races in search of future winners can pay dividends as demonstrated by Julio, who left a comment on the last blog regarding the Ebor winner All The Good (called the Newburgh Handicap this year). Godolphin’s winner was awarded an above-par rating at Newbury in a ‘four-star race’ before landing the Caulfield Cup at Flemington on Saturday at whopping odds. Well done Julio.

It’s not always easy to find time to review racing but an hour a week can pay dividends, especially if you have access to the internet and free alert services that notify you of when a horse you may be following is entered.

The future angle after each big race is one of the main reasons I chose to do the books, as punters can often be in a hurry to get the next bet down without bothering to take stock of the last one and looking ahead.

Going back to the Caulfield Cup, I managed to back Mad Rush for the Melbourne Cup at 16-1 and was encouraged by a storming fourth under a more than less aggressive ride. The reasoning was that he was an above-par winner of the Old Newton Cup in which Cumani’s winners have done well subsequently.
Not that I’m counting my chickens just yet with my ante-post record this year – Moonstone 50-1 for the Oaks and Prince Kalamoun 33-1 for the Cambridgeshire!

I occasionally mention horses that catch my eye, like Jedediah in the summer, and two made the Myers’ list to follow over the weekend. There’s no story behind either, other than they were given kind races and look lined up for a bigger prize.

Isn't That Lucky (Kempton on Sunday)
Leo’s Lucky Star (Cheltenham on Friday)

A jockey that also made the mental notebook was apprentice Jamie Kyne, who looks well worth his 7lb claim. He has already ridden several winners and looked polished when runner-up on Dig Deep at Pontefract on Monday.
He will be worth following if set for an all-weather season.

TOP OF THE FORM

As mentioned in previous weeks, the Top 20 is finding its feet at present with some of the Flat form turning mouldy. Each week I check each race to adjust the ratings and see how may winners emerged from the races but it has been very quiet of late. The giveaway is a weak base rating – stands at –1 this week – but I’m confident things will improve once the jumps and all-weather races begin to filter through, so keep the faith.
I did a dummy three-month trial with Top Of The Form from January to March prior to its debut in the Racing and Football Outlook back in April, and was impressed with the results over jumps so its all to look forward to once the winter season gets underway.

Here are this week’s entries from Tuesday October 21 onwards, again, there aren't even many entries which is a sign.

Al Gillani – The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Artzola – Still early days for this Wolverhampton handicap from Sep 12 but two winners have already emerged and Artzola caught the eye running on into fifth.

Bold Argument – Took care of three subsequent winners at Salisbury.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Fanditha – Salisbury fillies’ maiden win looks decent with the second and third obliging, and she deserves another chance on better ground after finding the Goffs Million on soft ground too much.

Hawk Mountain – This lightly raced three-year-old has improved with each run, staying on well at Redcar in front of two future victors. Ran a cracker back in trip at Pontefract and can win back over 1m6f+.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Nehaam - Had two future victors back in second and fourth at Newmarket. The winner impressed in coming away in the final furlong and his trainer mentioned he could run in a big sales race back here later this month.

Nizhoni Dancer (Tuesday) – Leicester nursery win looks good after the placed runners scored, and she is capable of defying a higher mark.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

San Jose City (Friday) – Second at Great Leighs is good form. Didn’t enjoy the Fibresand at Southwell on Sunday but is one to note back on Polytrack.

Too Much Trouble – Sandown victory has worked out well, producing a future Listed winner, and could be capable of stepping up in class.

Triple Dream (Wednesday, Thursday) - Caught the eye making late gains in eighth at Great Leighs.

Twisted - Ran well in fifth at Newmarket, making late headway, and is capable of picking up a maiden before the end of the season.

Wasan – Took a classy handicap at Doncaster that has been boosted, and this Pivotal colt will enjoy the autumn mud.

Wreningham - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

There will be more from me later this week.

JUMPS BOOK

2008-10-16T21:52:00.006Z

I’m glad to announce that my new book ‘Racing Trends Revealed 2008/09 – The Road to Cheltenham’ hits the bookstands next week.

The format is similar to the Flat book but with a few extra features, including the official rating, along with the running style of the winner – front, prom or held.

The Future Pointers is also the same, apart form the extra emphasis given to what the winner, runner-up and third of each event went on to achieve at the Cheltenham Festival. This is a valuable tool that I have used in the ante-post markets.
For instance, once the Christmas Hurdle at Sandown has taken place and the winner predictably shortens in price for the Champion Hurdle, the stats in this book will highlight if past winners went on to glory at the Festival, or whether the race is a red herring? In some races, the runners-up actually have a better future record than the winner.

‘Racing Trends Revealed 2008/09 – The Road to Cheltenham’ is on sale now at a reduced price from High Stakes.
The opening race is on October 25 – the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow.

Moving back to the Flat, and though it may not be everyone’s cup of tea, the Melbourne Cup takes place on the first Tuesday in November, making this Saturday of real relevance as it sees one of its key trials at Flemington in the Caulfield Cup.

Although there aren’t any International races such as the Melbourne Cup in the current Racing Trends Revealed Flat book, I’m hoping to introduce plenty for the third edition in 2010. Until then, I thought I’d highlight the record of the Caulfield Cup as a trial with a view to spotting a Melbourne Cup candidate.

There are currently prices available for the Melbourne Cup, and with Attheraces likely to show a recording of the race on Sunday, it could be worth viewing in the search for some value before the British bookmakers react on ‘lazy Sunday’.
I was on Purple Moon last year after a storming sixth in the Caulfield Cup and he went agonizingly close in the Melbourne Cup. Interesting to note that Luca Cumani goes again this year with Mad Rush who was an above-par winner of the Old Newton Cup (page 112 of the book). Cumani’s three winners of that Haydock event all went on to score again, including Alkaased. I wouldn’t expect Mad Rush to win the Caulfield, especially after these comments on Thursday: "Mad Rush is using the Caulfield Cup as a stepping stone to the Melbourne Cup," said Cumani. "He's in good form by all accounts but he's drawn a bit wide (17). But obviously we hope that he has an uncomplicated run and we can finish in the money somewhere."
Mad Rush currently trades at 12/1 for the Melbourne Cup.

Year – Melbourne Cup winner with age, weight, draw – (Position in Caulfield Cup)

2007 Efficient 4yo 8st9lb stall 10 of 21 - (NR)
2006 Delta Blues 5yo 8st11lb stall 11 of 23 - (3rd in Caulfield)
2005 Makybe Diva 7yo 9st2lb stall 14 of 24 - (NR)
2004 Makybe Diva 6yo 8st11lb stall 7 of 24 - (2nd in Caulfield)
2003 Makybe Diva 5yo 8st stall 15 of 23 - (4th in Caulfield)
2002 Media Puzzle 5yo 8st4lb stall 3 of 23 - (NR)
2001 Ethereal 4yo 8st2lb stall 13 of 22 - (won the Caulfield)
2000 Brew 6yo 7st10lb stall 24 of 22 - (NR)
1999 Rogan Josh 7yo 7st12lb stall 24 of 24 - (4th in Caulfield)
1998 Jezabeel 6yo 8st1lb stall 16 of 24 - (6th in Caulfield)
1997 Might And Power 4yo 8st11lb stall 2 of 22 - (won the Caulfield)
1996 Saintly 4yo 8st10lb stall 3 of 22 - (NR)
1995 Doriemus 5yo 8st8lb stall 23 of 21 - (won the Caulfield)

That’s all from me this week, I’ve not been in great form during the past two weeks including the cricket – which was triggered by Prince Kalamoun’s blowout – so will be taking the punting easy until the Top Of The Form chart starts to catch fire again, along with the start of the jumps season in early-November. But good luck to anyone having a bet at the weekend and I’ll be back with more updates early next week.

ps. at the risk of sounding obvious, Godolphin’s horses are belatedly flying with form-figures of 1122311711111234121 from their last 19 runners.

Performance ratings & TOTF

2008-10-14T10:03:00.000Z

Performance ratings

BENGOUGH STAKES – Conquest 76

CORNWALLIS STAKES – Amour Propre 72

AUTUMN STAKES – Kite Wood 71

Top Of The Form

Have to admit its been a quiet time for the Top 20 as the Flat comes to an end, with some horses beginning to lose their form, so it could prove wise to tread carefully for three or four weeks until the jumps season gets underway properly. Several runners mentioned here certainly flopped last week, and I’ll be cutting back on turf Flat races from now, instead concentrating on the jumps and all-weather. That’s not to say certain Flat runners from the turf – especially from backend maidens – won’t be appearing on the all-weather before the end of the year in an attempt to get off the mark.

The current Top 20 isn’t particularly strong either, with a base rating of 0, compared to a month ago when races boasting a +3 couldn’t even make the chart, making those weeks in particular very profitable. The Top 20 should change shape in the coming weeks, though, with new arrivals from the jumps and all-weather that will hopefully contribute to a strong chart.

Anyway, for now, here is the list of bold horses mentioned in the RFO, along with their five-day entries from Tuesday October 14. I was hoping for a bigger price about Absent Pleasure at Leicester on Tuesday (today) as that is the Guardian nap. We’ve slipped in the naps table over the past fortnight but are still in with a fighting chance. I gave yesterday’s nap, The Carlton Cannes, which was an agonising neck second at Kempton.

Absent Pleasure (Tuesday) – Newmarket win been franked nicely and was a creditable third back there from a bad draw last time as high numbers were favoured throughout the day.

Al Gillani – The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Artzola – Still early days for this Wolverhampton handicap from Sep 12 but two winners have already emerged and Artzola caught the eye running on into fifth.

Bold Argument – Took care of three subsequent winners at Salisbury.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Fanditha – Salisbury fillies’ maiden win looks decent with the second and third obliging, and she deserves another chance on better ground after finding the Goffs Million on soft ground too much.

Hawk Mountain – This lightly raced three-year-old has improved with each run, staying on well at Redcar in front of two future victors. Ran a cracker back in trip at Pontefract and can win back over 1m6f+.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Moresco (Tuesday) - Stayed on nicely on his debut at Sandwon and will be a force when stepped up in trip as his pedigree is packed with stamina.

Nehaam - Had two future victors back in second and fourth at Newmarket. The winner impressed in coming away in the final furlong and his trainer mentioned he could run in a big sales race back here later this month.

Nizhoni Dancer – Leicester nursery win looks good after the placed runners scored, and she is capable of defying a higher mark.

Pacific Ocean (Sunday) - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Royal Straight (Wednesday) - recorded a career best at Lingfield on his debut over 1m2f, which is no surprise as a son of Halling, and could represent value back in a handicap as he has just eight outings on the clock and is still open to improvement.

Too Much Trouble – Sandown victory has worked out well, producing a future Listed winner, and could be capable of stepping up in class.

Twisted - Ran well in fifth at Newmarket, making late headway, and is capable of picking up a maiden before the end of the season.

Wasan (Saturday) – Took a classy handicap at Doncaster that has been boosted, and this Pivotal colt will enjoy the autumn mud.

Wreningham - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Future pointers

2008-10-10T11:33:00.001Z

Some of you may recall my first book ‘Future Trends’ in 2005, that highlighted races throughout the year from which winners went on to make a profit. They included all types of events including maidens.
One such race from Salisbury with a superb long-term history happened to be staged two Wednesday’s ago and was pointed out on this blog back on July 9 by Julio.

The race in question was the EBF Maiden for juveniles over a mile – often split into two divisions – which was last year won by the subsequent-winning Oaks victor Look Here. A glance at the results below show that winners of this maiden have proven very profitable to follow, and it was interesting to note in this week’s Timeform black book that they have the winner of the second division from this season, Ouster, top of their ‘large P’ list on 91P (The ‘large P’ list is for those horses ‘capable of much better form’).

Year, winner (including divisions) & next three runs:

2008
State Banquet - ?
Ouster - ?

2007
Look Here – Lost, WON 33/1, Lost
Huzzah – Lost, Lost, WON 14/1

2006
Spume – Lost, Lost, Lost
Ladies Best – WON 6/1, Lost, Lost

2005
Botteen – Fell
Judge – Lost

2004
The Composer – Lost, Lost, Lost
Night Hour – Lost, Lost, Lost

2003
Alshawameq – Lost, Lost, WON 20/1

2002
Foodbroker Founder – Lost, WON 16/1, Lost
Constantine – Lost, Lost, Lost

2001
Shanty – NR
Dawn Invasion – WON 2/1, Lost, WON 12/1

2000
Regatta Point – WON 8/1, Lost, Lost

1999
Island Sound – WON 6/5, Lost, Lost
Osood – Lost, WON 6/1, Lost

1998
Deal Fair – WON 8/11, Lost. Lost
Lucido – Lost, WON 9/1, WON 3/1

1997
Lucky Double – Lost, Lost, Lost
Courteous – WON 11/1, Lost. Lost

1996
Bold Words – WON 8/1, Lost, WON 8/1
Yorkshire – Lost, Lost, Lost

1995
Mystic Knight – WON 9/2, Lost, WON 4/1

1994
Bunting – WON 2/5, Lost. Lost

Marcus Tregoning’s winners have proven disappointing, but Sir Michael Stoute’s above-par runners were worth noting, along with several runners-up, which included the likes of Doctor Fremantle and Papal Bull in recent years.
Those of you with access to databases or websites that alert you when a horse appears may want to add some names from this year’s renewals for next season – especially OUSTER.

I’ll be back early next week with updates, happy punting to all over the sunny weekend, where three TV races from Ascot appear in the book on pages 210-212.

Good luck.

No Saturday sirloin...just KFC!

2008-10-07T11:58:00.002Z

Right bet, but the wrong outcome in the Cambridgeshire on Saturday.
Prince Kalamoun simply went out like a light and obviously something went amiss – Spencer reported that the horse lost its action. Bottom line is it lost, and I imagine the horse will spring up at Nad Al Sheba after a 90-day break in the winter and win at decent odds! Formal Decree took that route so keep an eye out for him when the Dubai Carnival gets underway.

Although the result was a boneshaker, I still enjoyed the week leading up to the race, watching its price collapse, seeing the champion jockey booked and then the rain staying away. Adds to the excitement. Like the week leading up to Christmas Day, plenty of anticipation, just the wrong present!
I had the job of texting my editor, Tony Paley, the result, as he backed it at 33s too and was in France for Longchamp. He managed to back Zarkava in the Arc at 7s in the summer, though, so I’ve been forgiven!

Did anyone else notice the ‘buzz’ horse that lost in the Ayr Silver Cup – Mullein – sneak in at 11-2 at Warwick on Monday. I managed to nap it under Top Form ratings in the Guardian, but couldn’t believe the SP. It went off 6-1 at Ayr, so I was amazed it could be that big against inferior rivals with an inside draw back on better ground.

At least I’ve got the cricket getting underway this week to try and make some money, roll on Thursday for India v Australia. I’ll be back later this week, stay tuned for news about Racing Trends Revealed 2008/09 ‘The Road to Cheltenham’, which is released later this month.

Here are this week’s ratings and form entries.

TATTERSALL STAKES – Ashram 70

CHEVELEY PARK STAKES – Serious Attitude 70

MIDDLE PARK STAKES – Bushranger 78

JOEL STAKES – Eagle Mountain 77

SUN CHARIOT STAKES – Halfway To Heaven 80

CAMBRIDGESHIRE – Tazeez 73

TWO-YEAR-OLD TROPHY – Total Gallery 60

TOP OF THE FORM

Results could’ve been better last week from the horses I list here, although Total Gallery did land the Redcar 2YO Trophy, and there were several winners amongst the remainder of the Top 20 races, including a few at double-figure odds.
Here are this week’s entries from Tuesday October 7 onwards, involving the eyecatchers that are mentioned in my Racing and Football Outlook column:

Absent Pleasure (Friday, Saturday) – Newmarket win been franked nicely and was a creditable third back there from a bad draw last time as high numbers were favoured throughout the day.

Al Gillani – The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Artzola – Still early days for this Wolverhampton handicap from Sep 12 but two winners have already emerged and Artzola caught the eye running on into fifth.

Bold Argument – Took care of three subsequent winners at Salisbury.

Casela Park (Friday) - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Fanditha (Sunday) – Salisbury fillies’ maiden win looks decent with the second and third obliging, and she deserves another chance on better ground after finding the Goffs Million on soft ground too much.

Hawk Mountain – This lightly raced three-year-old has improved with each run, staying on well here in front of two future victors. Should gain compensation in another staying handicap.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Lonely Star – Fifth at Sandown worked out well, and should pick up a maiden, ideally back against her own sex – had a poor draw at Kempton on Monday.

Make Amends (Sunday) - Was seen making late ground into eighth on just his third outing at Bath.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Nizhoni Dancer – Leicester nursery win looks good after the placed runners scored, and she is capable of defying a higher mark.

Pacific Ocean - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Too Much Trouble – Sandown victory has worked out well, producing a future Listed winner, and could be capable of stepping up in class.

Wasan (Saturday) – Took a classy handicap at Doncaster that has been boosted, and this Pivotal colt will enjoy the autumn mud.

Wreningham - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Cambridgeshire (Friday evening update)

2008-10-02T11:13:00.005Z

Well, I was going to consider backing another horse in the Cambridgeshire as back-up to the Prince after the final declarations, but I'm happy with my bet on its own. I've also had a highly busy day on the racing desk at the Guardian what with the Longchamp cards thrown in, so I'm giving any studying a miss!

The Prince looks to have conditions to suit - as long as there isn't too much rain that's expected to hit Newmarket on Saturday - along with a handy draw that gives Spencer options. I just hope he doesn't overdo the waiting tactics and leave me doing a 'Joe Kinnear'!

I'm off to Costco early on Saturday morning with my wife to meet friends for some shopping where I might spot some more ante-post value goods for Christmas. Then Ikea for some drawyers for the nursery, which I have to assemble in time to watch the Cambridgeshire round my in-laws. The result of that could be a big factor in whether I'll be treating everyone to dinner - sausage in batter or sirloin steak...we'll see!

(From Thursday)
Prince Kalamoun makes the cut and has stall 19.
Here are some quotes from Swinbank we received at the Guardian couretsy of the press association on Thursday lunchtime (can't say I agree with his draw comments though - Formal Decree won it from 17):

Alan Swinbank is looking to Prince Kalamoun to provide him with a second totesport.com Cambridgeshire victory in three years at Newmarket on Saturday.
Formal Decree gave the North Yorkshire trainer his biggest win in this country when Jamie Spencer partnered the improving three-year-old to victory in 2006.
He then went on to prove himself as a Group performer in Dubai after being bought by Godolphin and Prince Kalamoun has a similarly progressive profile at the same stage of his career.
"He's certainly improving, just like Formal Decree was," said Swinbank.
"Saying that, this will be the toughest race of his career by far. We've booked a top jockey but we've not got a very good draw (19).
"He's really well in himself and he's shown a very good attitude for racing.
"He's certainly working as well as Formal Decree did before he won the race and he'd love the firm ground whereas some of the others will not.
"Of the others I'd say Sir Mark's (Master Of Arts) looks the pick."
Prince Kalamoun will face a maximum 34 rivals in the annual cavalry charge in which all the leading fancies stood their ground.
Smokey Oakey heads the weights on 9st 10lb followed by last year' runner-up Docofthebay.
Ante-post favourite Swop has been handed stall two with Yaddree in stall 22 and Premio Loco in stall 18.

Leighs is great!

2008-09-30T08:35:00.006Z

Performance ratings

ROYAL LODGE STAKES – Jukebox Jury 73

FILLIES’ MILE – Rainbow View 77

7f HERITAGE HANDICAP – Furnace 64

QEII STAKES – Raven’s Pass 89

1m4f HANDICAP – Night Crescendo 59

CUMBERLAND LODGE STAKES – Sixties Icon 78

DIADEM STAKES – King’s Apostle 76

BERESFORD STAKES – Sea The Stars 72

And so October is just around the corner. Didn’t feel like it on Saturday night at Great Leighs where it was short-sleeves everywhere. Have to say I was impressed with the Essex racetrack, even on the approach as the mass of floodlights gave it an American feel and looked quite impressive when lit up in late in the evening.

My wife and I turned up around 15 minutes before the first race which wasn’t a great idea – never is when you go racing! – as there is a long queue of cars at the entrance going back along the dual carriageway that you have to use to get to the venue. This was a big evening, though, so I can’t say whether traffic is a regular theme.
Easy to park, although the entrance is still makeshift with two portakabins – I was lucky I had a press pass so didn’t have to queue, but there was a good 10 minute wait in the main one.
After entering you have to wait again like at a level crossing, until the horses have gone to the start on the track, then the stewards let you walk across the Polytrack to the middle of the course. Not a great way to start the evening, with sand etc on your shoes, especially for the ladies.
But with the arrival out the way, the rest of the evening was great and I’d recommend it to anyone. It also helps when the weather is nice, you back three winners in only four races, and sneak into the owners bar for free food! The way I saw it was that if Luca Cumani does nail me in the Cambridgeshire on Saturday, I was going to help myself to some of the smoked salmon sandwiches laid on for him!
I did have a little on Orpsie Boy in the end, but also did Ceremonial Jade fortunately from a better draw. I also backed Shampagne by default as Cumani’s Poster was odds-on, and Shampagne was unbeaten in two AW outings – make that three now - aren't I the smartass!

On to this Saturday and the Cambridgeshire which I’ll give my final thoughts on later in the week after the draw. I’ve backed Prince Kalamoun at 33s as mentioned here last week and am hoping for a middle to high draw.
We got sent a media guide at the Guardian yesterday and the draw stats make interesting reading (year, first four home and ground):

2007 11-20-5-17 (GF)
2006 17-10-16-9 (GS)
2005 28-26-25-20 (S)
2004 3-7-5-18 (GD)
2003 17-28-31-24 (GF)
2002 26-2-23-33 (FM)
2001 11-2-12-8 (GD)
2000 34-15-20-33 (GD)
1999 14-17-29-21 (SOFT)
1998 33-35-29-22 GD)
1997 17-9-1-25 (GF)
1996 17-21-16-15 (GF)
1995 26-23-21-15 (GF)
1994 24-23-21-15 (GD)
1993 18-28-2-27 (GS)
1992 7-2-5-27 (GS)
1991 27-26-19-5 (GF)
1990 2-4-6-18 (GF)

Just need stall 17 for the Prince now, and the Cumani and Prescott beasts to be drawn one to four!

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are this week’s entries from Tuesday Sep 30 involving the eyecatchers from my RFO column, there were a few winners last week following some frustrating placed runners:

Al Gillani – The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Almost Married (Thursday) – Featured in the hot Ayr sprint and nearly won over 5f, before another placed effort over the same trip on Monday. Will enjoy going back to 6f.

Artzola – Early days for this Wolverhampton handicap from Sep 12 but two winners have already emerged and Artzola caught the eye running on into fifth.

Bold Argument – Took care of three subsequent winners at Salisbury.

Casela Park - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Hawk Mountain – This lightly raced three-year-old has improved with each run, staying on well here in front of two future victors. Should gain compensation in another staying handicap.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Lonely Star – Fifth at Sandown worked out well, and should pick up a maiden, ideally back against her own sex – had a poor draw at Kempton on Monday.

Make Amends - Was seen making late ground into eighth on just his third outing at Bath.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Pacific Ocean (Saturday) - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Quanah Parker (Saturday) – Clocked a decent time at Ripon beating three subsequent winners and should be able to hold his own in better company.

Red Lily (Friday) – Decent third at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Total Gallery (Saturday) - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Wee Ziggy (Tuesday) – Third in a Southwell handicap hurdle is decent form.

Wreningham - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

CAMBRIDGESHIRE ANTE-POST (updated)

2008-09-25T12:05:00.006Z

I've backed Prince Kalamoun at 33-1 with Stan James on Thursday Sep 25, plenty of 25-1 still available.

As stated in the book on page 193, those that run well in the Newbury trial have a good record, including stablemate Formal Decree two year's ago.

Stakes are refunded by bookmakers - but do check with yours - if he doesn't make the cut and he handles most ground, so just a middle to high draw is required.

It's been place city for Top Of The Form so far this week, and I backed both Imperial Sword (got 10/1) and Avontuur (7/1) when second and third at Redcar on Wednesday. Both looked destined to fill the top two places before getting nailed late by a 22/1 shot!

Pan The Man could only manage third on Thursday as well, so a small part of the Ayr winnings from Against The Grain have been handed back, but I'm hoping to hit back at Ascot on Saturday, especially in the big 7f handicap where the trends from the book are fairly strong.

I'm making my debut at Great Leighs on Saturday night where Orpsie Boy runs. He's been handed a trappy wide high draw though in a hot race, so I'm not sure if I'll be getting involved yet. I've just looked up the top three finishing draw positions in sprints at Great Leighs in Timeform Perspective going back to the start of September which read as:

9-13-4 (11 ran) 6f
14-7-13 (13) 6f
12-7-4 (10) 6f
4-6-3 (12) 6f
1-7-5 (11) 5f
10-3-7 (11) 6f
1-2-7 (14) 5f
4-3-7 (13) 6f
5-4-11 (16) 6f
1-5-9 (12) 5f

Interesting to note, though, stall 1 in 5f sprints.

As ever, good luck to all punting, and I'll be around twice next week.

Wednesday update...minus the photo!

2008-09-24T11:36:00.003Z

I see the Ayr Gold Cup form is working out well! – one runner, one winner, courtesy of Knot In Wood.
A lesson there for us all next time we consider backing a horse making a quick reappearance. Each horse obviously has a different constitution – light-framed fillies etc - but it amazed me how a horse can run so well in a big handicap and then bolt up just 24 hours later.

Glad to see some of you backed Against The Grain in the Silver Cup, and it was nice to see the main letter in the RFO this week regarding TOTF. Fingers crossed for more winners this week.

Here are the updated ratings and Top Of the Form entries from Wednesday Sep 24 onwards - I’ll be making my own ‘quick reappearance’ with another blog in the next 48 hours before the weekend.

Performance ratings

DUBAI DUTY FREE ARC TRIAL – Blue Monday 77

FIRTH OF CLYDE STAKES – Aspen Darlin 61

AYR GOLD CUP – Regal Parade 69

MILL REEF STAKES – Lord Shanakill 67

JOHN SMITH’S STAKES – Presvis 70

DUBAI WORLD TROPHY – Moorhouse Lad 70

Top Of The Form

Almost Married – Featured in the hot Ayr sprint and nearly won over 5f, before another placed effort over the same trip on Monday. Will enjoy going back to 6f.

Any Given Day (Cesarewitch) – Fifth in a Newmarket handicap that is reasonable form and should be able to improve on this running on effort from behind, which was a disadvantage on the day.

Avontuur (Wednesday) – Cracking second in Ayr sprint, only put up 1lb for that and on decent handicap mark.

Doughnut (Saturday) – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Imperial Sword (Wednesday) – Good fourth in Ayr sprint, needs things to fall right as seems to find in trouble in running too often. Smallish field over 6f on good or softer ideal.

Lonely Star (Sunday) – Fifth at Sandown worked out well, and should pick up a maiden, ideally back against her own sex – had a poor draw at Kempton on Monday.

Lucky Numbers (Saturday) – Thirsk maiden victory has been franked by horses in a better grade and could represent value from a small yard.

Make Amends (Monday) - Was seen making late ground into eighth on just his third outing at Bath.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Pacific Ocean - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pan The Man (Thursday) - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4 – outclassed in Listed last time.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Quanah Parker (Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy) – Clocked a decent time at Ripon beating three subsequent winners and should be able to hold his own in better company.

Red Lily (Tuesday & Friday) – Decent third at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Roman Glory (Wednesday, Friday, Saturday) – Seen making late ground in decent Sandown maiden and should improve further.

Shamwari Lodge (Friday, Saturday, Monday) - Picked up nicely on her debut at Newbury.

Spinners End (Wednesday) – Good fourth at Ripon and capable of taking a maiden. Was drawn on wrong side on debut and Burke yard in-form during September.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery (Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy) - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Wee Ziggy – Third in a Southwell handicap hurdle is decent form.

Ayr on Friday

2008-09-18T19:51:00.006Z

Amazing stuff this spare time!

Since Operation Racing Trends Revealed Jumps 2008/09 has been completed, I've done things like sit in the park, cut the grass (which was like a jungle), and importantly clear out my office for the nursery.
A strange feeling clearing out my office, dismantling my faithful desk for the dump, the same desk that has supported me through two books. But it's all for a good reason - bambino will be here soon. Until the propery market improves and we move in a few years time to reclaim my office, my workspace is now a laptop split between the bed and kitchen table!

But I have had time to look at Friday's racing at Ayr and have decided to try and scoop the Silver Cup with just the four bets! My mud-loving army against the field are:
Burning Incense - Harrison George - He's A Humbug - Against The Grain.

My editor at the Guardian is also a big fan of Ask The Butler, who runs at Newbury on Saturday, and won't hear of defeat about him.

I'll be back next week with some more blogging...good luck.

Performance ratings & Top Of The Form

2008-09-15T18:26:00.002Z

Performance ratings from the book last week:

PARK HILL STAKES – Allegretto 67

MAY HILL STAKES – Rainbow View 73

DONCASTER CUP – Honolulu 78

FLYING CHILDERS STAKES – Madame Trop Vite – 67

BLANDFORD STAKES – Katiyra 72

CHAMPAGNE STAKES – Westphalia 71

PORTLAND HANDICAP – Hogmaneigh 70

ST LEGER STAKES – Conduit 80

PARK STAKES – Arabian Gleam 75

IRISH ST LEGER – Septimus 80

SELECT STAKES - Lady Gloria 70

NATIONAL STAKES – Mastercraftsman 78

September 11 will always be remembered for obvious reasons, but I will now recall the 2008 anniversary as the year I finally completed the jumps book – Racing Trends Revealed 2008/09 ‘The road to Cheltenham’.

I’ll uncover more information about the jumps version over the next few weeks, and what races are featured, as it should be on sale in mid-October in time for the first race at Chepstow on October 25 – the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle.
The format is the same as the Flat version, although I have added the winner’s official rating, along with the running style - front, prom, held.
The bottom section of the page also reveals what winners and placed runners of the races went on to achieve at that season’s Cheltenham Festival, which is a valuable tool for ante-post punting.

Now that the book is complete, I’m hoping to be blogging more than time has allowed in the past month - as the Flat season reaches it’s final few months - with 36 races from the book still to go, including the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. I attended last year’s renewal with my wife, but never again will I attempt it all in one day as getting up at 5am for the early flight and returning at 10pm was a killer!
The horse I backed ante-post for the Gold Cup, Burning Incense, didn’t even run 12 months’ ago, but he should get in this year’s Silver Cup on Friday. I’ll probably have a few quid on him, although he has become a bit of a rogue and needs everything to fall right, but he has become well-handicapped and loves the mud.

One who doesn’t like the mud is Orpsie Boy - yes him - who looks to have missed his moment this Flat season as there isn’t much chance of fast ground helping him. It could be the all-weather for him.
Another name some of you may be tired of hearing is Opera Prince from my Top Of The Form column in the Racing and Football Outlook. He caught the eye in one of the best form races of the season at Goodwood back in June and finally reappeared on Friday at Sandown where he obliged at 15/2 - hope some of you spotted him.
That Goodwood sprint is a superb example of what the Top Of The Form method is all about - take a look at how the top seven of that race worked out subsequently:

June 13, Goodwood, Handicap, 6f

1. Shifting Star WON 5/1, WON 7/2, 4th
2. Fabreze WON 15/8, -
3. Brassini 3rd, 2nd, WON 6/1
4. Opera Prince WON 15/2
5. Masada WON 3/1, 2nd
6. Lodi WON 15/2, 10th, 3rd
7. Hadaf WON 8/1, 10th

Using the form book is one of the oldest methods in the book, but I often think punters try too hard these days with pace, draw etc, which are very en vogue, but concentrating on old fashioned form can find rewarding odds in the market.

I’ve mentioned here, also, that nominating the horse to follow from each race isn’t easy as I try to put forward the ‘sexy’ horse that catches the eye making up ground often into the places. However, those that are buried further back in mid division or beyond can go in at very big prices, as was the case a few weeks back when a bucketful of winners emerged.
The idea of Top Of The Form is to highlight the races currently working out well and leave it to people to look into the race for their own runners to consider backing – similar to Today’s Trainers in the Racing Post that shows which handlers are in form.

And so, onto this week’s entries from the ‘sexy’ list of horses to follow (my wife is currently waiting to back Head Down when it runs as our expectant baby is in place…gulp!)

Anosti (Tuesday) – Fine second at Pontefract has worked out and could score on a speedier track.

Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Huntdown (Thursday & Friday) – Early days for this Newmarket maiden but has been franked twice, and a second here looks strong form.

Lucky Numbers– Thirsk maiden victory has been franked by horses in a better grade and could represent value from a small yard.

Make Amends - Was seen making late ground into eighth on just his third outing at Bath.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Pacific Ocean - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pan The Man (Sunday) - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4 – outclassed in Listed last time.

Park Lane (Friday) – Fourth at Newbury in a fast time bodes well.

Pay Time (Saturday) – Fifth at Carlisle not bad and ready to go well on fast ground possibly at big price.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Red Lily (Tuesday & Friday) – Decent third at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Shamwari Lodge - Picked up nicely on her debut at Newbury.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery (Friday & Saturday) - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Wee Ziggy – Third in a Southwell handicap hurdle is decent form.

Performance ratings & Top Of The Form

2008-09-10T12:38:00.000Z

Performance ratings

SUPREME STAKES – Express Wish 68
(median rating in the book should read 74)

SEPTEMBER STAKES – Hattan 76

SIRENIA STAKES – Elnawin 74

MATRON STAKES – Lush Lashes 78

IRISH CHAMPION STAKES – New Approach 86

Here are this week’s entries for the Top Of The Form eyecatchers, which I’ve trimmed, excluding some of the older entries:

Anosti – Fine second at Pontefract has worked out and could score on a speedier track.

Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

High Five Society (Monday) – Fourth at Haydock is fair form and one to watch back on Polytrack.

Huntdown (Tuesday) – Early days for this Newmarket maiden but has been franked twice, and a second here looks strong form.

Lucky Numbers (Saturday) – Thirsk maiden victory has been franked by horses in a better grade and could represent value from a small yard.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Pacific Ocean - Decent fourth at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

Pan The Man (Sunday) - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4 – outclassed in Listed last time.

Pay Time – Fifth at Carlisle not bad and ready to go well on fast ground possibly at big price.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Red Lily – Decent third at Yarmouth and a repeat on soft ground could suffice.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery (Saturday) - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Wee Ziggy – Third in a Southwell handicap hurdle is decent form.

Updated ratings and Top Of the Form

2008-09-03T07:05:00.002Z

Last week's performance ratings from the book

SOLARIO STAKES - Sri Putra 67

MOYGLARE STUD STAKES – Again 67

After five solid months of writing the new book, it is finally deadline week for Racing Trends Revealed 2008/09 ‘The road to Cheltenham’. Four of the next five days will be spent proofing and checking the 145 races included in the edition, some of which surprised me regarding their subsequent results at the Cheltenham Festival. Ten points awarded to anyone who knows the last winner of the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas to follow up at that season’s Festival?

It was a cracking week for Top Of The Form last week, with winners emerging from the Top 20 at 66-1, 8-1, 15-2, 7-1 and 4-1. As mentioned here before, some of those came from the bottom half of the field that weren’t obvious, but as someone stated in a letter to the Racing and Football Outlook a few weeks back, the rewards are there for those with time to check the entries. There were also a few much needed winners from the list of eyecatching runners mentioned on here, including Diriculous (2-1), Go Go Green (4-1) and Many Welcomes (12-1).

Here is the updated list, bar the new entries from this week that I haven't had time to add, but they can be found in my copy of this week's RFO.
I’ll hopefully be able to include their entries in a few weeks time when I get more time after the book is completed.

Bulwark - Queen Alexandra form not bad and consistent in a visor until last week at Goodwood, but not his track with form figures of: 000

Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Fallen In Love – Fifth in Sweet Solera is looking good after Rainbow View’s and the third-placed victory.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Honolulu - Form of Queen Alexandra is decent and may have not handled Goodwood.

Kyrie Eleison - Form of last win worked out especially well.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Navajo Joe - Form of maiden win is fair and deserves another chance on good or softer, or AW, after finishing last on firm at Ascot.

Opera Prince - Superb fourth at Goodwood in one of the hottest races of the season. Step back to 7f will suit, but been absent since – will it ever reappear!

Pan The Man - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4 – outclassed in Listed last time.

Pay Time – Fifth at Carlisle not bad and ready to go well on fast ground possibly at big price.

Play Up Pompey – Kept on well at Lingfield early August, on a nice mark and has won three times over 1m2f at Lingfield.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Sampower Rose - Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly Class 5/6 maiden.

Sundowner - Second to Resplendent Light back in June suggests he is on a fair mark judging the winner's subsequent win. Not been out since but yard doing better now.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Weatherstaff – Won an Ayr maiden in which the third and fourth both scored since, and has some Group entries.

PR & TOTF

2008-08-27T09:40:00.001+01:00

Performance ratings

GREAT VOLTIGEUR – Centennial 75

JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL – Duke Of Marmalade 90

GIMCRACK STAKES – Shaweel 69

EBOR (NEWBURGH) – All The Good 72

YORKSHIRE OAKS – Lush Lashes 80

LOWTHER STAKES – Infamous Angel 65

NUNTHORPE STAKES – Borderlescott 78

PRESTIGE STAKES – Fantasia 65

CELEBRATION MILE – Raven’s Pass 82

WINTER HILL STAKES – Stotsfold 74

FUTURITY STAKES – Arazan 74

In a rescheduled week at York not all the races from the book took place, while the Futurity Stakes was down as being next week, so it was either my error or the date was changed.

Moving over to Top Of The Form and there were plenty of winners from the Top 20 last week, and a good example of how it’s not easy to pick the right horse to follow from each race – the ones that appear in my RFO copy and here. I try to mention the horses that either looked unlucky on the day, ones that are well-handicapped, or ones with scope to improve. However, last week several runners from the Top 20 races obliged that weren’t obvious, including First Swallow (12/1) – 8th of nine at Carlisle, Simarian (2/1) – Pulled up at Stratford, Flying Spirit (6/1) – another pulled up at Stratford, while The Magic Of Rio (7/1) and Infamous Angel (11/2), went in from Newbury – the latter was gettable after finishing second there.

At the risk of sounding repetitive – no it’s not Orpsie Boy! – time is continually beating me at the moment with a two-week deadline closing for the jumps book, so I’ve not had time to check the entries for the current list of Top Of The Form runners, but they can be checked on the Racing Post site.

Aggravation - Caught they eye back on June 16 now, on about the right mark, but could have a win in him back at Windsor.

Bulwark - Queen Alexandra form not bad and consistent in a visor until last week at Goodwood, but not his track with form figures of: 000

Crossbow Creek - Veteran, but good third to Rajeh, and step back to 1m4f could see a second victory from only 5lb higher after York.

Diriculous - One to follow on AW.

Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Fallen In Love – Fifth in Sweet Solera is looking good after Rainbow View’s and the third-placed victory.

Go Go Green – Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Honolulu - Form of Queen Alexandra is decent and may have not handled Goodwood.

Kyrie Eleison - Form of last win worked out especially well.

Many Welcomes - Fair fourth to Ursus, and may need a stiff 6f or 7f.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Navajo Joe - Form of maiden win is fair and deserves another chance on good or softer, or AW, after finishing last on firm at Ascot.

Opera Prince - Superb fourth at Goodwood in one of the hottest races of the season. Step back to 7f will suit, but been absent since.

Pan The Man - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4.

Pay Time – Fifth at Carlisle not bad and ready to go well on fast ground possibly at big price.

Penang Cinta - Form of Windsor fourth is solid and followed up with a Chester third; looks to be coming to the boil.

Play Up Pompey – Kept on well at Lingfield, on a nice mark and has won three times over 1m2f at Lingfield.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Sampower Rose - Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Sundowner - Second to Resplendent Light back in June suggests he is on a fair mark judging the winner's subsequent win. Not been out since but yard doing better now.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Ulysees – fine debut for new yard and stil has a race in him

Weatherstaff – Won an Ayr maiden in which the third and fourth both scored since, and has some Group entries.

Top Of The Form

2008-08-21T08:10:00.000+01:00

Top Of The Form entries from Thursday August 21 to Tuesday August 26.

Aggravation - Caught they eye back on June 16 now, on about the right mark, but could have a win in him back at Windsor.

Bulwark (Friday) - Queen Alexandra form not bad and consistent in a visor until last week at Goodwood, but not his track with form figures of: 000

Crossbow Creek - Veteran, but good third to Rajeh, and step back to 1m4f could see a second victory from only 5lb higher after York.

Diriculous - One to follow on AW.

Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Fallen In Love – Fifth in Sweet Solera is looking good after Rainbow View’s and the third-placed victory.

Fitz Flyer (Friday) – Second at Ayr is decent with the third and fourth winning since.

Go Go Green (Monday) – Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Honolulu - Form of Queen Alexandra is decent and may have not handled Goodwood.

Kyrie Eleison - Form of last win worked out especially well.

Many Welcomes - Fair fourth to Ursus, and may need a stiff 6f or 7f.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Navajo Joe (Saturday, Tuesday) - Form of maiden win is fair and deserves another chance on good or softer, or AW, after finishing last on firm at Ascot.

Opera Prince - Superb fourth at Goodwood in one of the hottest races of the season. Step back to 7f will suit, but been absent since.

Pan The Man - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4.

Pay Time (Saturday) – Fifth at Carlisle not bad and ready to go well on fast ground possibly at big price.

Penang Cinta - Form of Windsor fourth is solid and followed up with a Chester third; looks to be coming to the boil.

Play Up Pompey – Kept on well at Lingfield, on a nice mark and has won three times over 1m2f at Lingfield.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Rose Diamond (Saturday) - Her victory was excellent form and she deserves another chance after fluffing the start at Ascot after getting worked up.

Sampower Rose - Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Sumner (Thursday) – Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Sundowner - Second to Resplendent Light back in June suggests he is on a fair mark judging the winner's subsequent win. Not been out since but yard doing better now.

The Good Guy - Placed effort at Uttoxeter decent form.

Total Gallery - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Ulysees – fine debut for new yard and stil has a race in him

Weatherstaff (Friday & Monday) – Won an Ayr maiden in which the third and fourth both scored since, and has some Group entries.

Zelos Girl (Thursday) – Beat two subsequent winners at Carlisle and on a fair mark compared to runner-up’s victory since.

Summer?

2008-08-19T08:39:00.001+01:00

Performance ratings

ROYAL WHIP STAKES – King Of Rome 75

GEOFFREY FREER STAKES – Sixties Icon 77

HUNGERFORD STAKES – Paco Boy 80

GREAT ST WILFRID – Tajneed 64

Now what was it called again…oh yeah, good to firm ground!
Will it emerge again this summer or is soft ground all the way to the November Handicap? Here’s hoping the final three days of the York Ebor meeting go ahead as the first day has been abandoned.

It’s a quiet time for me on here at present as I need an extra pair of hands with my workload, but I will be posting the Top Of The Form entries for this week on here tomorrow, some of which haven’t been running too well. There were several winners from the Top 20 last week, but the short-listed runners from here have run below-par.

Some races, frustratingly, have to be left out of the Top 20 too, as the top-half of the field all appear since the race takes place, which is one of the guidelines I use to create space in the chart for new entries. Such a race is one from Kempton over 1m3f on July 24, won by Fair Gale. Three of the top four have subsequently scored, including Broken Moon at Yarmouth on Monday night. That event would’ve been out of date by Tuesday in the RFO so was therefore omitted – annoying!

Anyone who’s fed up with hearing about Orpsie Boy, I suggest clicking on another of your ‘my favourtites’ at the toolbar now, but those of you willing to see out the journey, read on. In last week’s Raceform Update, another favourable mention was given to Orpsie Boy who is burning up the gallops at Newmarket. Nick Littmoden was quoted as saying that the rain, along with the watering on the Friday of Glorious Goodwood went against him.
I don’t know what route he’ll go, possibly another Portland - although that could be a touch sharp – but he needs the sun to start shining. I get the feeling that if the soft ground continues connections might lose patience and run him on the All Weather.

An entry in the Ayr Gold Cup along with an Indian summer would make things interesting!

Anyway, for now, good luck to all punting in the wet stuff this week.

Performance ratings & Top Of The Form

2008-08-11T18:51:00.000+01:00

Performance ratings

ROSE OF LANCASTER STAKES – Multidimensional 76

SWEET SOLERA STAKES – Rainbow View 69

TOP OF THE FORM
Those that were mentioned in copy during recent weeks form this list along with entries.

Abu Derby (Tuesday) - Capable of taking a lowly maiden after a fair fourth at Nottingham.

Aggravation (Tuesday) - Caught they eye back on June 16 now, on about the right mark, but could have a win in him back at Windsor.

Ambrose Princess (Thursday) – Seventh at Bath is good form and in a rich vein at present.

Arts Guild (Wed, Thu, Fri) – Fourth to Harald Bluetooth boosted last week, and now has a handicap mark after three maiden runs.

Berry Baby (Thu, Sat) - Excellent second to Suzi's Decision who recently won a Listed event. Latest effort too bad to be true in a slow run AW race.

Bulwark (Ebor entry) - Queen Alexandra form not bad and consistent in a visor until last week at Goodwood, but not his track with form figures of: 000

Crossbow Creek - Veteran, but good third to Rajeh, and step back to 1m4f could see a second victory from only 5lb higher after York.

Diriculous (Monday) - One to follow on AW, jury still out on turf despite a third.
Doughnut – Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Fallen In Love – Fifth in Sweet Solera is looking good after Rainbow View’s and the third-placed victory.

Fitz Flyer (Gimcrak entry at York) – Second at Ayr is decent with the third and fourth winning since.

Gemini Jive (Tuesday) - Fair third to Jargelle good enough to win a lowly maiden.

Go Go Green – Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Honolulu - Form of Queen Alexandra is decent and may have not handled Goodwood.

It's A Dream - Excellent second to El Dececy, flopped on a straight track next time and may prefer around a collar (bend).

Kyrie Eleison - Form of last win worked out especially well.

Latin Scholar (Sunday) – Form of Windsor victory is solid and on the upgrade.

Many Welcomes - Fair fourth to Ursus, and may need a stiff 6f or 7f.

Mullglen - Weatherbys Super Sprit working out well, especially those from the lower-half of the field that are given reasonable targets next time.

Navajo Joe - Form of maiden win is fair and deserves another chance on good or softer, or AW, after finishing last on firm at Ascot.

Opera Prince - Superb fourth at Goodwood in one of the hottest races of the season. Step back to 7f will suit, but been absent since.

Pan The Man - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4.

Penang Cinta - Form of Windsor fourth is solid and followed up with a Chester third; looks to be coming to the boil.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Quinzey’s Best - Good fifth in hot Salisbury race. Flopped last time but pulled hard and is the type who could pop up at a big price in a big field when settling.

Rose Diamond (Saturday) - Her victory was excellent form and she deserves another chance after fluffing the start at Ascot after getting worked up.
Sampower Rose - Finished thereabouts in fair Catterick maiden and capable of taking a lowly maiden.

Sundowner - Second to Resplendent Light back in June suggests he is on a fair mark judging the winner's subsequent win. Not been out since but yard doing better now.

Total Gallery - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Weatherstaff – Won an Ayr maiden in which the third and fourth both scored since, and has some Group entries.

Highs and lows

2008-08-08T11:51:00.001+01:00

Not much to report from me after another hot busy week in the metropolis.

High point of the week was another winning cricket bet in the fourth Test between England and South Africa - Cricket Trends Revealed possibly in the making! – with my wife telling me I should concentrate my punting on cricket with seven winning bets from eight!

Low points included getting caught in the rain too often walking to and from work, whose droplets ruined the chance of Golden Prospect at Sandown. I said to my colleague earlier, that either some of the horses I’m following are rubbish, or I’m due for a good run when they get conditions.

I will be winding down my blogs slightly over the next month – which may be a blessing based on the past fortnight’s results! – owing to the jumps book deadline rapidly approaching. I’m in for a nine-hour shift on Saturday writing, so I don’t think I’ll get to see many of the 17 races on TV in the afternoon – but then my wife has promised to take me for an Indian meal followed by cinema in the evening as a break.
The performance ratings and Top Of The Form entries will still appear, though, along with random blogs when I get the time.

Anyway, good luck with any bets, including the Rose of Lancaster and Sweet Solera Stakes from the book – the Royal Whip Stakes is on Sunday.

Performance ratings & Top Of The Form

2008-08-06T12:57:00.003+01:00

Here are last week's performance ratings from Goodwood.

Somebody asked me the other day how they are compiled, but there is a brief explanation at the front of the book. They are basically my equivalent of a mark out of 10 for how good the performance was.
Nothing to do with pounds per length etc. I look at the median figure for the race then award points for the time of the race, quality of renewal, style of the winner and overall profile compared to previous winners. Mad Rush, for instance would score more points as a Luca cumani-trained winner of the Old Newton Cup, because his winners all achieved subsequently.

HERITAGE HANDICAP 1m2f – Gulf Express 71

GORDON STAKES – Conduit 76

LENNOX STAKES – Paco Boy 75

MOLECOMB STAKES – Finjaan 70

VINTAGE STAKES – Orizaba 72

SUSSEX STAKES – Henrythenavigator 86

HERITAGE HANDICAP 1m4f – Love Galore 62

KING GEORGE (AUDI) STAKES – Enticing 74

GOODWOOD CUP – Yeats 85

HERITAGE HANDICAP 1m2f (3yo) – Indian Days 65

OAK TREE STAKES – Visit 66

MILE HANDICAP – Fifteen Love 70

RICHMOND STAKES – Prolific 66

NASSAU STAKES – Halfway To Heaven 77

STEWARDS’ CUP – Conquest 67

Following on from this week's Top 10 review in the Racing and Football Outlook, I have listed the horses which have been highlighted previously in my column along with entries and brief comments.

Abu Derby - Capable of taking a lowly maiden after a fair fourth at Nottingham.

Aggravation (Sunday) - Caught they eye back on June 16 now, on about the right mark, but could have a win in him back at Windsor.

Bantry Bere (Friday) - Good debut over fences, should improve for that.

Berry Baby (Sunday) - Excellent second to Suzi's Decision who recently won a Listed event. Latest effort too bad to be true in a slow run AW race.

Bulwark (Ebor entry) - Queen Alexandra form not bad and consistent in a visor until last week at Goodwood, but not his track with form figures of: 000

Cativo Cavallino (Saturday) Fourth to Diriculous is good form, has slipped to a fair mark.

Crossbow Creek - Veteran, but good third to Rajeh, and step back to 1m4f could see a second victory from only 5lb higher after York.

Diriculous (Staurday and Monday) - One to follow on AW, jury still out on turf despite a third.

Gemini Jive (Monday) - Fair third to Jargelle good enough to win a lowly maiden.

Golden Prospect (Thursday, Sat, Sun, Mon) - Very good fourth to El Dececy and hovers on a winning mark.

Head Down - Excellent second to Rose Diamond and could win a nursery.

Honolulu - Form of Queen Alexandra is decent and may have not handled Goodwood.

It's A Dream - Excellent second to El Dececy, flopped on a straight track next time and may prefer around a collar (bend).

Kyrie Eleison - Form of last win worked out especially well.

Many Welcomes - Fair fourth to Ursus, and may need a stiff 6f or 7f.

Misdaqeya (Saturday) - Career best over 7f last time at Kempton, which has worked out well.

Navajo Joe - Form of maiden win is fair and deserves another chance on good or softer, or AW, after finishing last on firm at Ascot.

Opera Prince - Superb fourth at Goodwood in one of the hottest races of the season. Step back to 7f will suit, but been absent since.

Pan The Man - Career best when second to subsequent-winning William The Butler, and should pick up a race possibly dropped to a Class 4.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

Quinzey’s Best - Good fifth in hot Salisbury race. Flopped last time but pulled hard and is the type who could pop up at a massive price in a big field when settling.

Rose Diamond - Her victory was excellent form and she deserves another chance after fluffing the start at Ascot after getting worked up.

Sundowner - Second to Resplendent Light back in June suggests he is on a fair mark judging the winner's subsequent win. Not been out since but yard doing better now.

Total Gallery - Beverley form worked out and possibly drawn too near the stands' rail at Goodwood as the race developed down the centre.

Down...but not out.

2008-08-05T09:12:00.000+01:00

As I sat down to write this blog following Saturday’s disappointing result, I couldn’t help feeling like the man who’d just missed a penalty, having to walk back to his team red faced.

I searched numerous websites attempting to find out the meaning of the word ‘orspie’. Could it possibly mean ‘disappoints after promising so much’, or perhaps ‘follow until finding reward’. I didn’t find out, but if there is such a meaning it might fall somewhere in between.

I watched the race with a friend during the cricket on Saturday and wasn’t aware there had been so much rain. When the Channel 4 caption came up before the race stating the ground was ‘good’, I told my friend that it simply wouldn’t win as it needs fast ground, but wanted to be wrong. Deep down, though, once a negative appears then the whole ‘feel’ for a bet disappears.
Halfway through the race I knew it was beat, and afterwards, the connections of Prime Defender confirmed the ground was loose on top. The fact Orpsie Boy was on the ‘wrong’ side didn’t help.

The bottom line is that it lost, and I had the job of explaining how to non-racing colleagues who asked for tips during Glorious Goodwood. But they’re not interested in the ground changing, or the draw. To them, the horse was rubbish. Money down the drain.

I’ve backed several horses that left me disappointed after a big race when expectations were high, and the majority I’ve left well alone subsequently. But there were some horses that left a feeling of ‘unfinished business’ and Orpsie Boy is one.
As with Moonstone back in May after the Musidora, I won’t be turning my back on this fellow.
A big field, fast ground with a draw, along with form-figures of 050 should make him a price if he gets such conditions. I’m just hoping they don’t run him in an 8-runner AW race where his price would be shorter.

Overall, last week was a shocker on the racing front, but I’ve had them before, it’s all part of the journey. The journey that offers so much if you’re open to it.
I spent many months writing about dealing with winning and losing on horses in my time with Racing Ahead magazine, so I won’t go over old ground here.
But it’s simple really. You just patiently wait for your time to arrive. Seems miles away sometimes, but it’s only ever just around the corner.

Owing to the countdown until deadline for the jumps book I’m currently writing, along with a six-day stint at the Guardian this week, the performance ratings and Top Of The Form entries will appear later than normal, but should emerge during the next 24 hours.

Glorious Goodwood - Day four

2008-08-01T11:46:00.002+01:00

Not so ‘Glorious’ from my perspective, as I’m now on the minus side of the profit column this week.
I was ahead until yesterday thanks to Firestreak and my cricket bet, but the trends races I’ve previewed and bet in have been a disaster - one crumb of comfort was that Indian Days emerged from the Newmarket handicap.
I also backed Quinzey’s Best at Sandown from the No.1 Top Of The Form race but it ran a shocker.

Perhaps my boy Orpsie can turn things around in the Steward’s Cup on Saturday.
I doubt there’s a person in the country who knows how the draw will work out, but as Graham Cunningham points out in today’s Racing Post, it can pay to concentrate on those fancied runners that are on a handy mark, rather than get in knots over the draw. It looks fairly level on what I saw on Thursday, with Enticing coming down the middle, and then the stands’ side marginally landing the finale.
There appears to be pace all over on Saturday, so I can’t seeing there being a huge draw bias. I’ve already backed Orpsie Boy at 40/1 and have had a smaller one on Barney McGrew at 20/1, as there looks to be a big race in him.

Not my week on the horse racing front, but the show goes on, and I’ve done a preview of Friday’s Richmond Stakes below.

I’ll be back early next week with performance ratings and Top Of The Form updates.

Have a good weekend.

RICHMOND STAKES

Blown It – Already raced in a Group event which is a negative, low draw and price too big.

Desert Icon – Last time out winner, but winners of this haven’t arrived via Windsor and likely outsider.

Gallagher – Respected as yard won it twice and last time out victory in a maiden was clocked in a fast time. Chance.

Khor Dubai – Raced more than three times and no last time out winner took a nursery.

Prolific - Raced more than three times and yard one to swerve in this.

Reve De Soleil - Raced more than three times and likely outsider.

Rileyskeepingfaith – Likeable profile and last time out victory in a Newmarket maiden bodes well. Chance.

Saucy Brown – Winners don’t usually arrive via Listed races and yard 0/15 in last 12 years in this.

Saxford - Raced more than three times.

Smokey Storm – Raced more than three times, unplaced last time out in a Group race.

Total Gallery – Won a nice maiden last time that has worked out OK. By Namid, though, who usually like some cut and he may need some rain.

Waffle – Won a maiden at Leicester back in April and not seen since which goes against the ‘last run’ trend. Yard in-form, though, and 33% with juveniles here.

SHORT-LIST: Gallagher – Waffle – Rileyskeepingfaith